Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 662

May 17, 20214 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 17, 2021, 8:28 PM MDT for 4 states. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 17, 2021, 8:28 PM MDT (02:28 UTC)
Expired
May 17, 2021, 10:30 PM MDT
In force
2 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe thunderstorm watch 181
All 35 counties

Baca County, CO, Bent County, CO, Crowley County, CO, Kiowa County, CO, Otero County, CO, Prowers County, CO, Grant County, KS, Greeley County, KS, Hamilton County, KS, Haskell County, KS, Kearny County, KS, Meade County, KS, Morton County, KS, Seward County, KS, Stanton County, KS, Stevens County, KS, Beaver County, OK, Beckham County, OK, Cimarron County, OK, Ellis County, OK, Roger Mills County, OK, Texas County, OK, Carson County, TX, Collingsworth County, TX, Donley County, TX, Gray County, TX, Hansford County, TX, Hemphill County, TX, Hutchinson County, TX, Lipscomb County, TX, Moore County, TX, Ochiltree County, TX, Roberts County, TX, Sherman County, TX, Wheeler County, TX

The radar

The Amarillo radar (KAMA), 162 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:32 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Amarillo Airport, TX (KAMA), launched 00:00Z, 2.5 hours before the alert went out and 162 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Amarillo Airport, TX at 00:00Z on 2021-05-18Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1013 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Amarillo Airport, TX at 00:00Z on 2021-05-18The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 13 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1013 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-13 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1616 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
31 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
13 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
139 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
2.3

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

130 
ACUS11 KWNS 180228
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180228 
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-180430-

Mesoscale Discussion 0662
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0928 PM CDT Mon May 17 2021

Areas affected...Southeast Colorado...southwest Kansas...and the
OK/TX Panhandles

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 181...

Valid 180228Z - 180430Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 181
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe wind and hail potential will continue across
the TX and OK Panhandles for the next 1-2 hours, but a gradual
weakening trend is expected across WW 181.

DISCUSSION...A line of storms continues to propagate east/northeast
across southeast CO into southwest KS and across the OK/TX
Panhandles. This line has produced a handful of measured severe wind
gusts in the past hour, and MRMS vertically integrated ice trends
show a few stronger updrafts capable of severe hail in the near
term. However, composite reflectivity and lightning trends over the
past hour have shown a gradual weakening of the line as it moves
across southeast CO where deep-layer shear and MLCAPE are
diminishing. While sporadic damaging winds and isolated hail remain
possible in the near term, this weakening trend should continue. 

Further to the south across the OK/TX Panhandles, instability and
deep-layer shear remain favorable for maintaining the evolving QLCS
for the next 1-2 hours. Increasing inhibition and waning instability
will likely lead to a gradual weakening trend as the line approaches
western OK, but severe wind and a few instances of severe hail
remain likely in the near term. Trends will continue to be
monitored, but a downstream watch is currently not anticipated.

..Moore.. 05/18/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

LAT...LON   37710400 38330403 38730305 38550185 37910098 36899986
            36179962 35359964 34899988 34730035 34770103 35150160
            36340241 37070309 37710400

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 17, 6:23 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBaca, Bent, Kiowa, Las Animas, Otero, Prowers2 hr
May 17, 6:04 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCotton, Jefferson, Stephens, Tillman86 min
May 18, 1:30 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCChoctaw, McCurtain2 hr
May 18, 2:51 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCLeFlore, McCurtain5 hr
May 17, 6:32 PM MDTTornado WatchSPCBrown, Callahan, Coke, Coleman, Concho, McCulloch and 4 more3 hr
May 17, 6:37 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCallahan, Coke, Coleman, Glasscock, Howard, Jones and 6 more83 min
May 17, 7:04 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCArcher, Clay, Comanche, Eastland, Erath, Hamilton and 11 more5 hr
May 17, 7:34 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtascosa, Dimmit, Frio, La Salle, McMullen, Maverick and 2 more116 min
May 17, 8:44 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArmstrong, Borden, Briscoe, Childress, Collingsworth, Cottle and 15 more91 min
May 17, 9:23 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArcher, Brown, Callahan, Clay, Coke, Coleman and 16 more97 min
May 17, 9:35 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAndrews, Borden, Brewster, Crane, Crockett, Dawson and 13 more85 min
May 17, 9:58 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAndrews, Borden, Brown, Coke, Coleman, Concho and 22 more7 hr
May 17, 10:37 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBosque, Brown, Comanche, Denton, Eastland, Erath and 9 more83 min
May 18, 12:02 AM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBrooks, Duval, Jim Hogg58 min
May 18, 12:29 AM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCoke, Concho, Crane, Crockett, Ector, Glasscock and 13 more91 min
May 18, 4:07 AM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCoke, Concho, Irion, Reagan, Runnels, Schleicher and 2 more53 min
May 18, 12:18 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtascosa, Austin, Bastrop, Bexar, Brazos, Burleson and 28 more117 min
May 18, 12:57 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBailey, Castro, Deaf Smith, Parmer, Randall, Swisher3 hr
May 18, 1:29 PM MDTTornado WatchSPCAnderson, Atascosa, Austin, Bastrop, Bexar, Blanco and 30 more7 hr
May 18, 2:52 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBastrop, Caldwell, Colorado, Fayette, Gonzales, Guadalupe and 2 more83 min
May 18, 4:10 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCLa Salle, McMullen, Webb95 min
May 18, 4:39 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBowie, Cass, Gregg, Harrison, Marion, Morris and 1 more2 hr
May 18, 5:07 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArmstrong, Borden, Briscoe, Carson, Castro, Cochran and 17 more113 min
May 18, 5:13 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAustin, Brazos, Burleson, Colorado, DeWitt, Fayette and 14 more92 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Colorado, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.