Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 667

May 18, 2021Brooks County, Duval County, Jim Hogg County, Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 18, 2021, 1:02 AM CDT for Brooks County, Duval County, Jim Hogg County, Texas. It was in force for 58 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 18, 2021, 1:02 AM CDT (06:02 UTC)
Expired
May 18, 2021, 2:00 AM CDT
In force
58 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe potential...watch unlikely
Chance of a watch
20%

Counties Brooks County, TX, Duval County, TX, Jim Hogg County, TX

The radar

The Corpus Christi radar (KCRP), 95 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 06:01 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Corpus Christi, TX (KCRP), launched 00:00Z, 6.0 hours before the alert went out and 106 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Corpus Christi, TX at 00:00Z on 2021-05-18Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 2541 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Corpus Christi, TX at 00:00Z on 2021-05-18The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 23 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
2541 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-51 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
672 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
29 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
23 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
80 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.3
Supercell composite
1.9

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

661 
ACUS11 KWNS 180603
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180602 
TXZ000-180700-

Mesoscale Discussion 0667
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0102 AM CDT Tue May 18 2021

Areas affected...portions of south Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 180602Z - 180700Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Locally intense winds could accompany a bowing segment
tracking eastward across south TX over the next hour or two.

DISCUSSION...An intense bow is currently tracking eastward across
Duval, Jim Hogg and Brooks counties in south TX. This feature
produced near-severe wind gusts near Laredo about 60-75 minutes ago
and has since remained over mainly rural areas. While low level
inhibition is present and may limit the overall severe threat, the
latest VWP from BRO indicates a 40-50 kt south/southeasterly low
level jet is oriented over the region. Strong instability is still
in place, with latest mesoanalysis indicating 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE
amid steep midlevel lapse rates. In conjunction with the low level
jet, this should maintain organization of the bowing feature in the
short term, and a couple of locally intense winds could reach the
surface despite weak to moderate inhibition. Given the small spatial
and temporal nature of the threat, a watch is not expected at this
time.

..Leitman/Hart.. 05/18/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO...

LAT...LON   26819845 26979882 27299883 27689878 27789845 27699802
            27509780 27329776 27079777 26919782 26819845

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 17, 7:04 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArcher, Bosque, Brown, Clay, Comanche, Eastland and 15 more86 min
May 17, 7:23 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCarson, Dallam, Gray, Hansford, Hartley, Hemphill and 8 more2 hr
May 17, 7:32 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCBrown, Callahan, Coke, Coleman, Concho, McCulloch and 4 more3 hr
May 17, 7:37 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCallahan, Coke, Coleman, Glasscock, Howard, Jones and 6 more83 min
May 17, 8:04 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCArcher, Clay, Comanche, Eastland, Erath, Hamilton and 11 more5 hr
May 17, 8:34 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtascosa, Dimmit, Frio, La Salle, McMullen, Maverick and 2 more116 min
May 17, 9:28 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCarson, Collingsworth, Donley, Gray, Hansford, Hemphill and 7 more2 hr
May 17, 9:44 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArmstrong, Borden, Briscoe, Childress, Collingsworth, Cottle and 15 more91 min
May 17, 10:23 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArcher, Brown, Callahan, Clay, Coke, Coleman and 16 more97 min
May 17, 10:35 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAndrews, Borden, Brewster, Crane, Crockett, Dawson and 13 more85 min
May 17, 10:58 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAndrews, Borden, Brown, Coke, Coleman, Concho and 22 more7 hr
May 17, 11:37 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBosque, Brown, Comanche, Denton, Eastland, Erath and 9 more83 min
May 18, 1:29 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCoke, Concho, Crane, Crockett, Ector, Glasscock and 13 more91 min
May 18, 5:07 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCoke, Concho, Irion, Reagan, Runnels, Schleicher and 2 more53 min
May 18, 1:18 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtascosa, Austin, Bastrop, Bexar, Brazos, Burleson and 28 more117 min
May 18, 1:57 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBailey, Castro, Deaf Smith, Parmer, Randall, Swisher3 hr
May 18, 2:29 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCAnderson, Atascosa, Austin, Bastrop, Bexar, Blanco and 30 more7 hr
May 18, 2:30 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBowie, Camp, Cass, Cherokee, Franklin, Gregg and 12 more2 hr
May 18, 3:51 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBowie, Camp, Cass, Cherokee, Franklin, Gregg and 11 more5 hr
May 18, 3:52 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBastrop, Caldwell, Colorado, Fayette, Gonzales, Guadalupe and 2 more83 min
May 18, 5:10 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCLa Salle, McMullen, Webb95 min
May 18, 5:39 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBowie, Cass, Gregg, Harrison, Marion, Morris and 1 more2 hr
May 18, 6:07 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArmstrong, Borden, Briscoe, Carson, Castro, Cochran and 17 more113 min
May 18, 6:13 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAustin, Brazos, Burleson, Colorado, DeWitt, Fayette and 14 more92 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.