Alert archive / Oklahoma / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 2052

October 13, 20125 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Oct 13, 2012, 6:59 PM CDT for 5 states. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Oct 13, 2012, 6:59 PM CDT (23:59 UTC)
Expired
Oct 13, 2012, 9:00 PM CDT
In force
2 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 98 counties

Benton County, AR, Boone County, AR, Carroll County, AR, Crawford County, AR, Franklin County, AR, Johnson County, AR, Logan County, AR, Madison County, AR, Newton County, AR, Polk County, AR, Scott County, AR, Sebastian County, AR, Washington County, AR, Cherokee County, KS, Crawford County, KS, Barry County, MO, Barton County, MO, Christian County, MO, Dade County, MO, Greene County, MO, Jasper County, MO, Lawrence County, MO, McDonald County, MO, Newton County, MO, Stone County, MO, Taney County, MO, Adair County, OK, Atoka County, OK, Bryan County, OK, Carter County, OK, Cherokee County, OK, Choctaw County, OK, Cleveland County, OK, Coal County, OK, Cotton County, OK, Craig County, OK, Creek County, OK, Delaware County, OK, Garvin County, OK, Haskell County, OK, Hughes County, OK, Jefferson County, OK, Johnston County, OK, Latimer County, OK, LeFlore County, OK, Lincoln County, OK, Love County, OK, Marshall County, OK, Mayes County, OK, McClain County, OK, McCurtain County, OK, McIntosh County, OK, Murray County, OK, Muskogee County, OK, Okfuskee County, OK, Okmulgee County, OK, Ottawa County, OK, Pittsburg County, OK, Pontotoc County, OK, Pottawatomie County, OK, Pushmataha County, OK, Rogers County, OK, Seminole County, OK, Sequoyah County, OK, Stephens County, OK, Tulsa County, OK, Wagoner County, OK, Archer County, TX, Callahan County, TX, Clay County, TX, Collin County, TX, Cooke County, TX, Dallas County, TX, Delta County, TX, Denton County, TX, Eastland County, TX, Erath County, TX, Fannin County, TX, Grayson County, TX, Hood County, TX, Hopkins County, TX, Hunt County, TX, Jack County, TX, Johnson County, TX, Kaufman County, TX, Lamar County, TX, Montague County, TX, Palo Pinto County, TX, Parker County, TX, Red River County, TX, Rockwall County, TX, Shackelford County, TX, Stephens County, TX, Tarrant County, TX, Taylor County, TX, Throckmorton County, TX, Wise County, TX, Young County, TX

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Norman, OK (KOUN), launched 12:00Z, 12.0 hours before the alert went out and 126 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Norman, OK at 12:00Z on 2012-10-13Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 885 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Norman, OK at 12:00Z on 2012-10-13The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 341 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
885 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-162 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
683 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
31 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
341 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
365 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.3
Supercell composite
8.7

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

470 
ACUS11 KWNS 132359
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132359 
MOZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-140200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2052
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0659 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...N TX...OK EXCEPT WRN PORTIONS...EXTREME SERN
KS...SWRN MO...NWRN AR.

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 661...664...

VALID 132359Z - 140200Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 661...664...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...ALTHOUGH PREDOMINANT STORM MODE SHOULD REMAIN RATHER
MESSY/QUASI-LINEAR...A FEW SUPERCELLS REMAIN POSSIBLE IN
PRECONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT STILL CHARACTERIZED BY RICH MOISTURE AND
FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND DEEP-TROPOSPHERIC WIND PROFILES. 
ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED AS ACTIVITY NEARS ERN END OF
EXISTING WWS...ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS N TX.

DISCUSSION...23Z SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWED PAC COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SWD FROM LOW OVER N-CENTRAL KS...ACROSS W-CENTRAL OK...THEN SWWD
OVER MAF AREA.  FRONT WAS OVERTAKING DRYLINE ACROSS NW TX.  SOME
TSTMS STILL MAY DEVELOP ALONG FRONT IN AIR MASS AT LEAST PARTIALLY
AFFECTED BY EARLIER TSTMS.  HOWEVER...BULK OF CONVECTION HAS BEEN
AND WILL REMAIN IN PREFRONTAL DEEP-LIFT ZONE CURRENTLY SHIFTING EWD
ACROSS SERN KS...NERN THROUGH S-CENTRAL OK AND NWRN/N-CENTRAL TX. 
WIDELY SEPARATED BOW ECHOES IN THAT ZONE HAVE PRODUCED MEASURED SVR
GUSTS IN OSAGE AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES OK AT 2204 AND 2245Z
RESPECTIVELY.  GIVEN STRENGTH OF AMBIENT WIND FIELDS...HIGH-PW
INFLOW LAYERS ESPECIALLY FROM ERN OK SWD...AND POTENTIAL FOR BOTH
DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER AND PRECIP LOADING IN DOWNDRAFTS...SVR
GUSTS WILL REMAIN PRIMARY THREAT.  NEARLY PARALLEL ALIGNMENT OF
DEEP-SHEAR AND MEAN-WIND VECTORS WITH DEEP-CONVERGENCE SHOULD FAVOR
QUASI-LINEAR AND BOWING STRUCTURES.  HOWEVER...BROAD AREA OF 250-400
J/KG EFFECTIVE SRH AND 45-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES COVERS
THIS AREA...SUPPORTING SUPERCELL POTENTIAL.  A FEW TORNADOES REMAIN
POSSIBLE...WHETHER FROM QLCS/BOW CIRCULATIONS OR SUPERCELLS.

..EDWARDS.. 10/13/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...SJT...

LAT...LON   32279996 34459828 35989693 36539553 37659489 37359303
            36589275 35449320 33739458 32429651 32209821 32279996

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 13, 5:57 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCBenton, Carroll, Crawford, Franklin, Madison, Sebastian and 1 more6 hr
Oct 12, 10:11 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCFinney, Grant, Gray, Hamilton, Haskell, Hodgeman and 10 more94 min
Oct 12, 11:52 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarton, Clark, Comanche, Edwards, Ellis, Finney and 24 more83 min
Oct 13, 2:06 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClark, Comanche, Ford, Kiowa, Meade, Seward84 min
Oct 13, 2:00 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarber, Barton, Clark, Clay, Cloud, Comanche and 31 more90 min
Oct 13, 3:13 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBarber, Barton, Butler, Chase, Clay, Cloud and 26 more6 hr
Oct 13, 6:26 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCButler, Chase, Clay, Cloud, Cowley, Dickinson and 24 more64 min
Oct 13, 12:23 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCaddo, Comanche, Custer, Greer, Jackson, Kiowa and 2 more3 hr
Oct 13, 1:00 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCAlfalfa, Atoka, Blaine, Bryan, Caddo, Canadian and 36 more8 hr
Oct 13, 2:55 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtoka, Blaine, Bryan, Caddo, Canadian, Carter and 33 more95 min
Oct 12, 9:19 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArmstrong, Bailey, Briscoe, Carson, Castro, Cochran and 20 more56 min
Oct 12, 11:34 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAndrews, Bailey, Cochran, Crosby, Dawson, Floyd and 9 more86 min
Oct 13, 1:10 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCoke, Concho, Crockett, Irion, Menard, Reagan and 7 more95 min
Oct 13, 1:37 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBrown, Coke, Coleman, Concho, Crockett, Edwards and 19 more9 hr
Oct 13, 3:42 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCoke, Crockett, Irion, Kinney, Maverick, Reagan and 6 more93 min
Oct 13, 6:30 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAngelina, Austin, Bastrop, Bexar, Brazos, Burleson and 27 more60 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Arkansas, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.