Mesoscale Discussion 2041

Issued

Oct 12, 2012, 9:11 PM MDT (03:11 UTC)

Expired

Oct 12, 2012, 10:45 PM MDT

In force

94 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Chance of a watch

20%

The Dodge City radar (KDDC), 189 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 03:14 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

525 
ACUS11 KWNS 130312
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130311
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-130445-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2041
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1011 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NORTHEAST NM/SOUTHEAST CO AND OK
PANHANDLE/SOUTHWEST KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 130311Z - 130445Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SEVERE HAIL/WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT FROM FAR SOUTHEAST CO/NORTHEAST NM INTO SOUTHWEST
KS/OK PANHANDLE. CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR THE SEVERE THREAT TO
REMAIN RELATIVELY MARGINAL...SUCH THAT A WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

DISCUSSION...STORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND GRADUALLY CONGEAL IN A
QUASI-LINEAR FASHION ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST CO/NORTHEAST NM AS OF 03Z.
IT IS LIKELY THAT THESE STORMS ARE LARGELY COINCIDENT WITH
INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT VIA DPVA/UPPER JET EXIT REGION...ALONG
WITH AN INCREASING WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT REGIME INTO THE
OVERNIGHT TO THE NORTH OF A NORTHWARD-SHIFTING WARM FRONT. THE
ONGOING TSTMS SEEM LIKELY TO GENERALLY OUTRUN A NARROW AXIS OF
NEAR-SURFACE BASED BUOYANCY /ALBEIT WEAK WITH INHIBITION INCREASING/
ACROSS NORTHEAST NM/FAR WESTERN TX PANHANDLE. AS SUCH...A RELATIVELY
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL TEMPER DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WHILE
THESE TSTMS OTHERWISE CONTINUE TO LINEARLY ORGANIZE/STEADILY SPREAD
NORTHEASTWARD WITH AID OF INCREASING ASCENT/STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. 50+ WINDS ARE NOTED AROUND 3-5 KM AND ABOVE PER
REGIONAL WSR-88D VWP TRENDS FROM KPUX/KFDX/KDDC/KAMA. WITH
TIME...SOMEWHAT MORE ISOLATED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
EVOLVING CLUSTER CURRENTLY APPROACHING SOUTHWEST KS/WESTERN OK
PANHANDLE AMID THE INCREASING WAA REGIME. RAPID
MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION ABOVE THE SURFACE MAY CONTRIBUTE TO HAIL
POTENTIAL INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

..GUYER/HART.. 10/13/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON   35950369 36930306 38280214 38840100 38419951 36060084
            35950369

Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.