Alert archive / Oklahoma / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012
Mesoscale Discussion 2048
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Oct 13, 2012, 2:55 PM CDT for 39 counties in Oklahoma; 14 counties in Texas. It was in force for 95 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Oct 13, 2012, 2:55 PM CDT (19:55 UTC)
- Expired
- Oct 13, 2012, 4:30 PM CDT
- In force
- 95 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
All 53 counties
Atoka County, OK, Blaine County, OK, Bryan County, OK, Caddo County, OK, Canadian County, OK, Carter County, OK, Cleveland County, OK, Coal County, OK, Comanche County, OK, Cotton County, OK, Creek County, OK, Garfield County, OK, Garvin County, OK, Grady County, OK, Grant County, OK, Hughes County, OK, Jefferson County, OK, Johnston County, OK, Kingfisher County, OK, Kiowa County, OK, Lincoln County, OK, Logan County, OK, Love County, OK, Major County, OK, Marshall County, OK, McClain County, OK, Murray County, OK, Noble County, OK, Okfuskee County, OK, Oklahoma County, OK, Pawnee County, OK, Payne County, OK, Pittsburg County, OK, Pontotoc County, OK, Pottawatomie County, OK, Seminole County, OK, Stephens County, OK, Tillman County, OK, Washita County, OK, Archer County, TX, Baylor County, TX, Clay County, TX, Cooke County, TX, Haskell County, TX, Jack County, TX, Jones County, TX, Knox County, TX, Montague County, TX, Shackelford County, TX, Throckmorton County, TX, Wichita County, TX, Wilbarger County, TX, Young County, TX
The radar
The Norman radar (KTLX), 92 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:54 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Norman, OK (KOUN), launched 12:00Z, 7.9 hours before the alert went out and 75 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 885 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -162 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 683 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 31 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 341 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 365 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.3
- Supercell composite
- 8.7
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
296
ACUS11 KWNS 131955
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131955
OKZ000-TXZ000-132130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2048
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0255 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN OK...NWRN TX
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 661...
VALID 131955Z - 132130Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 661 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...BAND OF SEMI-DISCRETE CELLS AND CLUSTERS FROM SWRN OK TO
THE TX BIG COUNTRY IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE E/NEWD WITH AN INCREASING
RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL/WIND AND A FEW TORNADOES. CONCERN IS ALSO
INCREASING OVER THE POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION OF PRE-FRONTAL
TSTMS IN S-CNTRL OK. WFO WW EXTENSION OR A DOWNSTREAM TORNADO WATCH
ISSUANCE ARE POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT FROM
NEAR AVK TO BGS. TSTMS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
ALONG THE FRONT AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE SURGED THROUGH THE 80S
IN A NARROW CORRIDOR AHEAD OF IT ACROSS WRN OK INTO THE BIG COUNTRY.
ALTHOUGH STORM-SCALE INTERFERENCE/CLUSTERING MAY TEND TO LIMIT A
MORE INTENSE THREAT...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
ALL TYPES OF SEVERE.
ON/NEAR THE ERN FRINGE OF THE WW...A TSTM CLUSTER HAS INTENSIFIED IN
S-CNTRL OK. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS NOT AS GREAT AS FARTHER
WEST...STRONG LOW-LEVEL S/SWLYS SAMPLED IN THE PURCELL OK PROFILER
HAS YIELDED AROUND 30 KT 0-1 KM SHEAR AMIDST A RICH PW AIR MASS OF
1.75 IN THE 18Z OUN RAOB. THIS WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR AN
EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURE OR TWO AND AN ATTENDANT RISK OF A
TORNADO.
..GRAMS.. 10/13/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...
LAT...LON 36469852 36839791 36859735 36579692 35929630 35369589
34969570 34449564 34029609 33369794 32709896 32529954
32679995 32890015 33280005 34579931 36469852SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12, 10:11 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Beaver, Cimarron, Texas | 94 min |
| Oct 12, 11:52 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Beaver, Cimarron, Harper, Texas | 83 min |
| Oct 13, 2:06 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Beaver, Harper | 84 min |
| Oct 13, 12:23 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Caddo, Comanche, Custer, Greer, Jackson, Kiowa and 2 more | 3 hr |
| Oct 13, 1:00 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Alfalfa, Atoka, Blaine, Bryan, Caddo, Canadian and 36 more | 8 hr |
| Oct 13, 5:57 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Adair, Cherokee, Choctaw, Craig, Creek, Delaware and 19 more | 6 hr |
| Oct 13, 6:59 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adair, Atoka, Bryan, Carter, Cherokee, Choctaw and 35 more | 2 hr |
| Oct 12, 9:19 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Armstrong, Bailey, Briscoe, Carson, Castro, Cochran and 20 more | 56 min |
| Oct 12, 11:34 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Andrews, Bailey, Cochran, Crosby, Dawson, Floyd and 9 more | 86 min |
| Oct 13, 1:10 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Coke, Concho, Crockett, Irion, Menard, Reagan and 7 more | 95 min |
| Oct 13, 1:37 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Brown, Coke, Coleman, Concho, Crockett, Edwards and 19 more | 9 hr |
| Oct 13, 3:42 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Coke, Crockett, Irion, Kinney, Maverick, Reagan and 6 more | 93 min |
| Oct 13, 6:30 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Angelina, Austin, Bastrop, Bexar, Brazos, Burleson and 27 more | 60 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.