Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 2049

October 13, 201212 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Oct 13, 2012, 3:42 PM CDT for 12 counties in Texas. It was in force for 93 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Oct 13, 2012, 3:42 PM CDT (20:42 UTC)
Expired: Oct 13, 2012, 5:15 PM CDT
In force: 93 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Coke County, TX, Crockett County, TX, Irion County, TX, Kinney County, TX, Maverick County, TX, Reagan County, TX, Schleicher County, TX, Sterling County, TX, Sutton County, TX, Terrell County, TX, Tom Green County, TX, Val Verde County, TX

The radar

The San Angelo radar (KSJT), 109 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:45 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Del Rio, TX (KDRT), launched 12:00Z, 8.7 hours before the alert went out and 116 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 2004 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 536 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 35 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 220 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 288 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 1.7
Supercell composite: 9.8

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

987 
ACUS11 KWNS 132043
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132042
TXZ000-132215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2049
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0342 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...CONCHO VALLEY/EDWARDS PLATEAU OF TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 662...

VALID 132042Z - 132215Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 662
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT HAS BEEN MINIMAL THUS FAR...IT
SHOULD INCREASE AS ISOLATED TSTMS LIKELY BECOME SUSTAINED ALONG THE
TRAILING PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT NEAR THE LOWER TRANS-PECOS AND
ALONG THE MOUNTAINS OF COAHUILA.

DISCUSSION...20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE
PACIFIC COLD FRONT FROM NWRN TX SWWD TO THE BIG BEND. SEVERAL
CONVECTIVE ATTEMPTS HAVE OCCURRED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...WITH CELLS
ALONG THE PECOS/CROCKETT COUNTY BORDER AND IN REAGEN COUNTY
APPEARING TO HAVE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY TO BECOMING SUSTAINED.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS INTENSIFYING S OF VAL VERDE COUNTY ADJACENT
TO THE MOUNTAINS OF COAHUILA.

SURFACE TEMPERATURES DOWNSTREAM OF THESE CORRIDORS HAVE WARMED INTO
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S...CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG.
ALTHOUGH THE REGION IS ONLY BEING GLANCED BY MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS
AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS VEERED SLIGHTLY IN AREA VWP DATA...THE
CONTINUED STRONG HEATING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUSTAINING A
COUPLE OF STORMS. AMIDST 30-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR...ISOLATED
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH RISKS OF SEVERE HAIL/WIND ARE STILL
ANTICIPATED.

..GRAMS.. 10/13/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON   32230101 32260054 31910012 31440004 31000025 30280044
            29640020 28959987 28599986 28340002 28260021 29730229
            30630230 32230101

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Oct 12, 9:19 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Armstrong, Bailey, Briscoe, Carson, Castro, Cochran and 20 more	56 min
Oct 12, 10:11 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Dallam, Hansford, Ochiltree, Sherman	94 min
Oct 12, 11:34 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Andrews, Bailey, Cochran, Crosby, Dawson, Floyd and 9 more	86 min
Oct 12, 11:52 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Dallam, Hansford, Hartley, Hutchinson, Lipscomb, Moore and 5 more	83 min
Oct 13, 2:06 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Carson, Gray, Hansford, Hemphill, Hutchinson, Lipscomb and 7 more	84 min
Oct 13, 12:23 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Baylor, Coke, Fisher, Foard, Hardeman, Haskell and 13 more	3 hr
Oct 13, 1:00 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Archer, Baylor, Callahan, Clay, Cooke, Eastland and 20 more	8 hr
Oct 13, 1:10 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Coke, Concho, Crockett, Irion, Menard, Reagan and 7 more	95 min
Oct 13, 1:37 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Brown, Coke, Coleman, Concho, Crockett, Edwards and 19 more	9 hr
Oct 13, 2:55 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Archer, Baylor, Clay, Cooke, Haskell, Jack and 8 more	95 min
Oct 13, 6:30 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Angelina, Austin, Bastrop, Bexar, Brazos, Burleson and 27 more	60 min
Oct 13, 6:59 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Archer, Callahan, Clay, Collin, Cooke, Dallas and 25 more	2 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2012 Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.