Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012
Mesoscale Discussion 2040
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Oct 12, 2012, 8:19 PM MDT for 6 counties in New Mexico; 26 counties in Texas. It was in force for 56 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Oct 12, 2012, 8:19 PM MDT (02:19 UTC)
- Expired
- Oct 12, 2012, 9:15 PM MDT
- In force
- 56 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
All 32 counties
Curry County, NM, Harding County, NM, Lea County, NM, Quay County, NM, Roosevelt County, NM, Union County, NM, Armstrong County, TX, Bailey County, TX, Briscoe County, TX, Carson County, TX, Castro County, TX, Cochran County, TX, Dallam County, TX, Deaf Smith County, TX, Donley County, TX, Gaines County, TX, Gray County, TX, Hale County, TX, Hartley County, TX, Hockley County, TX, Hutchinson County, TX, Lamb County, TX, Lubbock County, TX, Moore County, TX, Oldham County, TX, Parmer County, TX, Potter County, TX, Randall County, TX, Roberts County, TX, Swisher County, TX, Terry County, TX, Yoakum County, TX
The radar
The Cannon AFB radar (KFDX), 74 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:22 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Amarillo Airport, TX (KAMA), launched 00:00Z, 2.3 hours before the alert went out and 118 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1574 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -33 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 603 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 56 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 219 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 284 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 11.7
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
565
ACUS11 KWNS 130219
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130219
TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-130315-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2040
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0919 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN NM/WEST TX
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 660...
VALID 130219Z - 130315Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 660 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...TORNADO WATCH 660 CONTINUES UNTIL 07Z. LARGE HAIL
POTENTIAL...ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED /BUT DIMINISHING/ TORNADO
THREAT...CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN NM AND THE TX SOUTH PLAINS/TX
PANHANDLE.
DISCUSSION...THE MOST INTENSE STORM ACROSS WW 660 IS OCCURRING
ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST NM WITH A RIGHT-MOVING SUPERCELL LOCATED AROUND
25 MILES NORTH OF HOBBS AS OF 0200Z. IN THE SHORT-TERM...LARGE HAIL
WILL REMAIN A DISTINCT THREAT...WITH A BRIEF TORNADO POSSIBLE. IN
SPITE OF ESTIMATED 0-1 KM SRH OF 150-200 M2/S2...THE WARM SECTOR
AIRMASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE NORTHEAST NM/TX PANHANDLE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY COOL/DECOUPLE AND THIS SHOULD
TEMPER TORNADO POTENTIAL WITH INCREASINGLY ELEVATED INFLOW OVER
TIME.
FARTHER NORTH...WITH RIGHT-MOVING SUPERCELLS HAVING DIMINISHED
ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE...AN INCREASINGLY ELEVATED/RESIDUAL
LEFT-SPLIT TSTMS SHOULD PERSIST/EXPAND TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT DRAPES ACROSS NORTHEAST NM/TX PANHANDLE...WITH AID OF
A WARM ADVECTION REGIME. SEVERE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN
WITH THESE TSTMS. OTHER TSTMS CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL/WIND WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO INCREASE/SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS FAR
NORTHEAST NM INTO THE OK PANHANDLE AND FAR SOUTHEAST CO/SOUTHWEST KS
THROUGH LATE EVENING.
..GUYER.. 10/13/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...
LAT...LON 36170413 36710371 36330236 36090044 35070061 32340264
32520424 33790356 35190395 36170413SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12, 10:34 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Lea, Roosevelt | 86 min |
| Oct 12, 10:52 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Quay | 83 min |
| Oct 12, 9:11 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Dallam, Hansford, Ochiltree, Sherman | 94 min |
| Oct 13, 1:06 AM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Carson, Gray, Hansford, Hemphill, Hutchinson, Lipscomb and 7 more | 84 min |
| Oct 13, 11:23 AM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Baylor, Coke, Fisher, Foard, Hardeman, Haskell and 13 more | 3 hr |
| Oct 13, 12:00 PM MDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Archer, Baylor, Callahan, Clay, Cooke, Eastland and 20 more | 8 hr |
| Oct 13, 12:10 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Coke, Concho, Crockett, Irion, Menard, Reagan and 7 more | 95 min |
| Oct 13, 12:37 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Brown, Coke, Coleman, Concho, Crockett, Edwards and 19 more | 9 hr |
| Oct 13, 1:55 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Archer, Baylor, Clay, Cooke, Haskell, Jack and 8 more | 95 min |
| Oct 13, 2:42 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Coke, Crockett, Irion, Kinney, Maverick, Reagan and 6 more | 93 min |
| Oct 13, 5:30 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Angelina, Austin, Bastrop, Bexar, Brazos, Burleson and 27 more | 60 min |
| Oct 13, 5:59 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Archer, Callahan, Clay, Collin, Cooke, Dallas and 25 more | 2 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in New Mexico, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.