Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012
Mesoscale Discussion 2046
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Oct 13, 2012, 1:10 PM CDT for 13 counties in Texas. It was in force for 95 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Oct 13, 2012, 1:10 PM CDT (18:10 UTC)
- Expired
- Oct 13, 2012, 2:45 PM CDT
- In force
- 95 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 80%
Counties Coke County, TX, Concho County, TX, Crockett County, TX, Irion County, TX, Menard County, TX, Reagan County, TX, Runnels County, TX, Schleicher County, TX, Sterling County, TX, Sutton County, TX, Terrell County, TX, Tom Green County, TX, Val Verde County, TX
The radar
The San Angelo radar (KSJT), 60 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:10 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Midland Regional, TX (KMAF), launched 12:00Z, 6.2 hours before the alert went out and 163 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 782 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -124 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 971 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 39 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 234 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 224 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 2.3
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000
ACUS11 KWNS 131810
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131810
TXZ000-131945-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2046
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0110 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...CONCHO VALLEY/EDWARDS PLATEAU OF WRN TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY
VALID 131810Z - 131945Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DISCRETE TSTMS SHOULD INITIATE ALONG
THIS PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT BY 20Z. PRIMARY INITIAL RISK SHOULD
BE LARGE HAIL...BUT ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND A BRIEF TORNADO WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED THE TRAILING PORTION OF A
COLD FRONT FROM HOWARD TO ERN BREWSTER COUNTIES. PRONOUNCED SURFACE
HEATING IS OCCURRING BETWEEN THIS BOUNDARY AND A STRATOCU DECK
FARTHER E IN THE EDWARDS PLATEAU. CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION ALONG
WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED TO PERHAPS
SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ALTHOUGH
DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILES WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS FARTHER N...THEY
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AS THE
PRIMARY THREAT.
..GRAMS/THOMPSON.. 10/13/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...
LAT...LON 32000140 32080031 31859957 31599954 30879980 29940037
29380100 29730237 30220237 31050196 32000140SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12, 9:19 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Armstrong, Bailey, Briscoe, Carson, Castro, Cochran and 20 more | 56 min |
| Oct 12, 10:11 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Dallam, Hansford, Ochiltree, Sherman | 94 min |
| Oct 12, 11:34 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Andrews, Bailey, Cochran, Crosby, Dawson, Floyd and 9 more | 86 min |
| Oct 12, 11:52 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Dallam, Hansford, Hartley, Hutchinson, Lipscomb, Moore and 5 more | 83 min |
| Oct 13, 2:06 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Carson, Gray, Hansford, Hemphill, Hutchinson, Lipscomb and 7 more | 84 min |
| Oct 13, 12:23 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Baylor, Coke, Fisher, Foard, Hardeman, Haskell and 13 more | 3 hr |
| Oct 13, 1:00 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Archer, Baylor, Callahan, Clay, Cooke, Eastland and 20 more | 8 hr |
| Oct 13, 1:37 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Brown, Coke, Coleman, Concho, Crockett, Edwards and 19 more | 9 hr |
| Oct 13, 2:55 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Archer, Baylor, Clay, Cooke, Haskell, Jack and 8 more | 95 min |
| Oct 13, 3:42 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Coke, Crockett, Irion, Kinney, Maverick, Reagan and 6 more | 93 min |
| Oct 13, 6:30 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Angelina, Austin, Bastrop, Bexar, Brazos, Burleson and 27 more | 60 min |
| Oct 13, 6:59 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Archer, Callahan, Clay, Collin, Cooke, Dallas and 25 more | 2 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.