Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012
Mesoscale Discussion 2047
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Oct 13, 2012, 2:00 PM CDT for 37 counties in Kansas. It was in force for 90 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Oct 13, 2012, 2:00 PM CDT (19:00 UTC)
- Expired
- Oct 13, 2012, 3:30 PM CDT
- In force
- 90 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 60%
All 37 counties
Barber County, KS, Barton County, KS, Clark County, KS, Clay County, KS, Cloud County, KS, Comanche County, KS, Dickinson County, KS, Edwards County, KS, Ellis County, KS, Ellsworth County, KS, Ford County, KS, Geary County, KS, Harper County, KS, Harvey County, KS, Hodgeman County, KS, Kingman County, KS, Kiowa County, KS, Lincoln County, KS, Marion County, KS, McPherson County, KS, Meade County, KS, Mitchell County, KS, Morris County, KS, Ness County, KS, Osborne County, KS, Ottawa County, KS, Pawnee County, KS, Pratt County, KS, Reno County, KS, Rice County, KS, Riley County, KS, Rush County, KS, Russell County, KS, Saline County, KS, Sedgwick County, KS, Stafford County, KS, Washington County, KS
The radar
The Dodge City radar (KDDC), 117 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:02 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Dodge City, (KDDC), launched 12:00Z, 7.0 hours before the alert went out and 111 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 619 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -36 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 670 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 65 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 263 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 254 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 4.9
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
817
ACUS11 KWNS 131900
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131900
KSZ000-OKZ000-132030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2047
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0200 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 131900Z - 132030Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST TO OCCUR
THIS AFTERNOON OVER CNTRL KS. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE. A WW MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED DURING THE NEXT HR OR
TWO.
DISCUSSION...MESOANALYSIS AT 18Z SHOWS AN AREA OF WEAK SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SITUATED OVER SWRN KS...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD
FROM THE LOW INTO FAR WRN OK. SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ARE OCCURRING
OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF AN EJECTING UPPER TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS. THESE FALLS WILL FAVOR MODEST DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE
LOW AS IT MOVES NEWD TOWARD THE NEB BORDER BY EVENING.
MEANWHILE...CLEARING SKIES ARE ALLOWING SURFACE TEMPERATURES OVER
CNTRL KS TO WARM INTO THE MID 70S...WHILE SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS
MAINTAINING MID 60S DEWPOINTS. THIS AIRMASS COMBINED WITH MODERATELY
STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES/COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT IS AIDING IN
MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG. STRONG MIDLEVEL SWLYS /50-70 KT/
AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH ARE ALSO CONTRIBUTING TOWARD EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR VALUES NEAR 60 KT. GIVEN THE DEVELOPMENT OF TOWERING
CUMULUS OBSERVED IN LATEST VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY...THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION APPEARS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STRONG
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND MODERATE CAPE WILL FAVOR LINE SEGMENTS AND A
FEW SUPERCELLS. THE PRIMARY SVR WEATHER THREAT WITH THESE STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL...THOUGH AN
ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS WELL.
..GARNER/THOMPSON.. 10/13/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...
LAT...LON 37080036 37970041 39539912 39879690 39039630 37299749
36959874 37080036SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12, 10:11 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Finney, Grant, Gray, Hamilton, Haskell, Hodgeman and 10 more | 94 min |
| Oct 12, 11:52 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Barton, Clark, Comanche, Edwards, Ellis, Finney and 24 more | 83 min |
| Oct 13, 2:06 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Clark, Comanche, Ford, Kiowa, Meade, Seward | 84 min |
| Oct 13, 3:13 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Barber, Barton, Butler, Chase, Clay, Cloud and 26 more | 6 hr |
| Oct 13, 5:57 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Cherokee, Crawford | 6 hr |
| Oct 13, 6:26 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Butler, Chase, Clay, Cloud, Cowley, Dickinson and 24 more | 64 min |
| Oct 13, 6:59 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Cherokee, Crawford | 2 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.