Alert archive / Arkansas / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2012

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 665

October 13, 20124 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at Oct 13, 2012, 10:15 PM CDT for 4 states. It was in force for 6 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Oct 13, 2012, 10:15 PM CDT (03:15 UTC)
Expired
Oct 14, 2012, 4:00 AM CDT
In force
6 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
1.5 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 46 counties

Baxter County, AR, Boone County, AR, Clark County, AR, Cleburne County, AR, Columbia County, AR, Conway County, AR, Faulkner County, AR, Fulton County, AR, Garland County, AR, Hempstead County, AR, Hot Spring County, AR, Howard County, AR, Izard County, AR, Johnson County, AR, Lafayette County, AR, Little River County, AR, Logan County, AR, Lonoke County, AR, Marion County, AR, Miller County, AR, Montgomery County, AR, Nevada County, AR, Newton County, AR, Perry County, AR, Pike County, AR, Polk County, AR, Pope County, AR, Pulaski County, AR, Saline County, AR, Scott County, AR, Searcy County, AR, Sevier County, AR, Stone County, AR, Van Buren County, AR, White County, AR, Yell County, AR, Howell County, MO, Oregon County, MO, Ozark County, MO, Shannon County, MO, Texas County, MO, McCurtain County, OK, Bowie County, TX, Fannin County, TX, Lamar County, TX, Red River County, TX

The radar

The Little Rock radar (KLZK), 125 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 03:18 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
20%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
5%
Ten or more severe wind reports
50%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
20%
Ten or more severe hail reports
20%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
5%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
80%

Warnings issued inside it

12 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 13, 10:34 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFWDFannin56 min
Oct 13, 10:39 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKLogan, Scott36 min
Oct 13, 10:56 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKBoone, Johnson, Logan, Newton, Pope34 min
Oct 13, 11:09 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKLogan, Pope, Yell51 min
Oct 13, 11:18 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFDouglas, Ozark, Taney57 min
Oct 13, 11:30 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFWDFannin, Lamar64 min
Oct 13, 11:33 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKNewton, Pope, Searcy, Van Buren42 min
Oct 13, 11:59 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKConway, Perry, Pope, Yell46 min
Oct 14, 12:26 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSHVMcCurtain49 min
Oct 14, 12:45 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKCleburne, Conway, Faulkner, Perry, Van Buren30 min
Oct 14, 1:02 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSHVHempstead, Howard, Lafayette, Little River, Miller, Sevier58 min
Oct 14, 1:07 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKConway, Faulkner, Perry38 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 00:00Z, 3.3 hours before the alert went out and 144 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Springfield, MO at 00:00Z on 2012-10-14Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 135 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Springfield, MO at 00:00Z on 2012-10-14The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 347 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
135 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-101 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
729 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
47 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
347 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
420 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
6.5

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 13, 9:37 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBaxter, Benton, Boone, Carroll, Conway, Crawford and 24 more113 min
Oct 14, 1:42 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArkansas, Calhoun, Clark, Cleburne, Cleveland, Dallas and 17 more93 min
Oct 14, 3:19 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArkansas, Bradley, Calhoun, Cleveland, Craighead, Cross and 15 more26 min
Oct 13, 7:04 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAndrew, Atchison, Holt, Nodaway, Worth56 min
Oct 13, 8:02 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBandera, Bell, Blanco, Bosque, Brown, Burnet and 33 more88 min
Oct 14, 1:16 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBell, Bosque, Burnet, Coryell, Dallas, Ellis and 16 more89 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Arkansas, 2012Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Missouri, 2012Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Texas, 2012Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.