Alert archive / Nebraska / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012
Mesoscale Discussion 2053
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Oct 13, 2012, 7:04 PM CDT for 4 states. It was in force for 56 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Oct 13, 2012, 7:04 PM CDT (00:04 UTC)
- Expired
- Oct 13, 2012, 8:00 PM CDT
- In force
- 56 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 40%
All 27 counties
Adams County, IA, Fremont County, IA, Mills County, IA, Montgomery County, IA, Page County, IA, Pottawattamie County, IA, Taylor County, IA, Brown County, KS, Andrew County, MO, Atchison County, MO, Holt County, MO, Nodaway County, MO, Worth County, MO, Cass County, NE, Douglas County, NE, Gage County, NE, Jefferson County, NE, Johnson County, NE, Lancaster County, NE, Nemaha County, NE, Otoe County, NE, Pawnee County, NE, Richardson County, NE, Saline County, NE, Sarpy County, NE, Saunders County, NE, Seward County, NE
The radar
The Omaha radar (KOAX), 90 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:04 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Omaha, NE (KOAX), launched 00:00Z, 0.1 hours before the alert went out and 90 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1014 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -18 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 795 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 46 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 74 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 14 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.1
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
789
ACUS11 KWNS 140004
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140004
IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-140100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2053
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0704 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEB...SWRN IA...FAR NWRN MO...FAR NERN KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 140004Z - 140100Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY
TSTMS APPROACHING FROM N-CNTRL KS...BUT THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS LESS
FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD STRONG-SVR WINDS. THEREFORE...THE POTENTIAL
FOR A WW IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
DISCUSSION...CONVECTION ACROSS N-CNTRL KS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DEVELOPING NEWD INTO PARTS OF SERN NEB AND NERN KS...AND MAY
EVENTUALLY AFFECT PORTIONS OF FAR SWRN IA AND NWRN MO. THIS AREA IS
POSITIONED ALONG THE NRN FRINGE OF THE RICHEST LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH SFC DEW POINTS IN THE MID-60S ARE YIELDING
ESTIMATED MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. ADDITIONALLY...18Z
NAM/22Z RUC FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW-LEVEL WIND FLOW IS
COMPARATIVELY WEAKER THAN AREAS FARTHER S...BUT THE PRESENCE OF
DRIER MIDLEVEL AIR COULD SUPPORT DOWNDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG-SVR WIND GUSTS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE THREAT FOR DMGG
WIND GUSTS MAY REMAIN TOO MARGINAL/ISOLATED TO WARRANT ISSUANCE OF A
NEW WW...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
..ROGERS/HART.. 10/14/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...
LAT...LON 41159468 40489437 40069454 39749532 39829602 40009666
40129712 40479728 40889723 41279673 41419606 41419533
41159468SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 9:37 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Barry, Christian, Dade, Dallas, Douglas, Greene and 11 more | 113 min |
| Oct 13, 10:15 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Howell, Oregon, Ozark, Shannon, Texas | 6 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Nebraska, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Iowa, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.