Severe Thunderstorm Warning 464, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
641 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

A LINE OF STORMS HAS TAKEN SHAPE IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND IS MOVING
TOWARDS ARKANSAS THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD NEAR KHRO BY
03Z...WITH 3-4HRS WORTH OF TEMPO TSRA AND REDUCED VSBY/CIGS.
MODELS SUPPORT BEST TSTM COVERAGE ACROSS NRN ARKANSAS SO TOOK KBPK
DOWN TO SIMILAR CATEGORIES AS KHRO...WITH ABOUT 2HR OFFSET LATER
IN TIME FROM KHRO. THINK TSTM COVERAGE IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS WILL
STILL WARRANT MENTION OF TEMPO THUNDER AT KHOT...KM89...AND KLIT.
EXPECT AT LEAST VCTS IF NOT TEMPO THUNDER AT THOSE SITES BY
07-09Z. EXPECT SOME WEAKENING TREND BY THAT TIME SO ONLY TOOK
THOSE SITES DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS. FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED BY
THE TIME LINE MAKES IT TO KPBF AND KLLQ...SO ONLY MVFR CIG
RESTRICTION AND MENTION OF -SHRA THERE. MAY STILL BE SOME THUNDER
EMBEDDED IN LINE BUT NOT CONFIDENT IT WILL BE VERY WIDESPREAD.

CLEARING BEHIND LINE SHOULD BE MORE PRONOUNCED UP NORTH SO HAVE
SKIES CLEARING OUT QUICKLY THERE. SOUTHERN END OF LINE WILL BE A
LITTLE SLOWER TO CLEAR...BUT STILL HAVE ALL SITES VFR WITHIN A FEW
HOURS OF ENDING TSRA/SHRA CONDITIONS AT TERMINALS. WITH CLEARING
SKIES...WARM TEMPS AND GOOD MIXING...EXPECT GUSTY WEST WINDS AT
MOST SITES TOMORROW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

WINDS HAVE INCREASED THIS AFTERNOON AFTER THE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
DISSIPATED...WITH THE FRONT LIFTING NORTH OF THE STATE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPS HAVE WARMED SUBSTANTIALLY INTO THE 70S TO LOW
80S...THOUGH SOME ISOLATED SPOTS REMAINED IN THE 60S WHERE CLOUDS
REMAINED. EXPECT THE BREEZY SRLY WINDS TO CONTINUE...WITH HIGHS
TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. MUCH OF THE CWA SHOULD REMAIN
DRY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
MENTIONED ACROSS THE FAR WRN AND NWRN COUNTIES THROUGH 00Z.

INTENSE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF CO
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS KS THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH WIDESPREAD
SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS ERN OK DURING THE EVENING HRS...AND WILL
BE MOVING EAST INTO NWRN AND WRN AR BY MIDNIGHT. EXPECT THE MAIN
LINE OF STORMS TO BE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE STATE BY
SUNRISE SUN MORNING. HOWEVER...WILL PROBABLY SEE THE LINE BECOME
LESS ORGANIZED OVER TIME AS THE BULK OF THE LARGE SCALE FORCING
LIFTS NORTH OF AR. THIS WILL ALSO BE THE TIME OF MINIMUM INSTABILITY
DURING THE MORNING HRS.

THERE WILL DEFINITELY BE SVR WX POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THERE
WILL BE PLENTY OF SHR AND DYNAMICS IN PLACE. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT SFC BASED INSTABILITY WHEN THE SYSTEM PROGRESSES
EAST ACROSS THE CWA. IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF THE STATE...OR IF SIGNIFICANT COLD POOLING DEVELOPS
BEHIND THE MAIN LINE...THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD SVR STORMS COULD
PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HRS. RIGHT NOW THOUGH...THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR SVR WX WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR WRN AND NWRN COUNTIES
LATE THIS EVENING. THE MAIN SVR WX THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS...THOUGH HAIL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL
BE LIMITED ACROSS MUCH OF AR AS RESULT THE LACK IN INSTABILITY...AND
WITH THE LOWEST LAYER DIRECTIONAL SHR NOT AS FAVORABLE AS RESULT OF
SSW SFC WINDS AHEAD OF THE LINE. THE BEST TORNADO THREAT WILL BE
FOCUSED ACROSS THE FAR WEST AND NWRN SECTIONS OF THE STATE WHERE
BETTER INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHR WILL EXIST.

BY SUN AFTERNOON...THE MAIN LINE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE
EAST OF THE CWA...BUT THE COLD FRONT WILL BE LAGGING BEHIND ACROSS
THE FAR WRN COUNTIES. SINCE THERE WILL BE SOME TIME FOR WARMING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND SW WINDS...SHOULD SEE
AFTERNOON TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE 80S BEFORE THE MAIN INFLUENCE OF
THE FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CWA. THIS FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE
AREA BY SUN NIGHT...WITH MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING SE.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER AR BY MON AFTERNOON...WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED. THIS SFC HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST
BY TUE...WITH SRLY WINDS RETURNING TO THE REGION. TEMPS WILL BEGIN
TO WARM...BUT MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REMAIN LIMITED FOR NOW AS FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES FROM THE NW. EXPECT MORE SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE RETURN
TO DEVELOP BY MID WEEK DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

MODELS CONT TO INDC A PROGRESSIVE UPR PATTERN ACRS THE REGION THRU
THE PD. A NEW STORM SYS WL PASS WELL N OF THE FA LATER ON WED AND
THU. AN ASSOCD CDFNT...TRAILING SWD FM THE SYS...WL MOVE INTO NWRN
AR EARLY WED NGT AND SWEEP THRU THE REST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY THU.
GOOD CHCS OF SHRA/TSRA WL ACCOMPANY THE FNT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WL
FOLLOW THE FROPA.

ANOTHER FAST MOVG STORM SYS WL PASS TO THE N OF AR THU NGT AND
FRI...WITH JUST AN INCRS IN CLOUDS EXPECTED. OPTED TO KEEP THE FCST
DRY AS SIG MOISTURE WL BE LACKING WITH THIS FEATURE. HIGH PRES WL
SETTLE INTO THE MID SOUTH HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     80  67  83  50 /  10  60  30  10
CAMDEN AR         81  69  84  56 /  10  60  30   0
HARRISON AR       74  65  76  49 /  20  80  10   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    77  68  83  54 /  20  70  10   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  81  68  84  54 /  10  60  30   0
MONTICELLO AR     83  69  82  56 /  10  50  40   0
MOUNT IDA AR      76  67  82  53 /  20  70  10   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  75  66  79  49 /  20  80  20   0
NEWPORT AR        82  68  83  50 /  10  60  30  10
PINE BLUFF AR     82  68  84  53 /  10  60  40   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   78  67  83  51 /  20  70  10   0
SEARCY AR         81  67  83  52 /  10  60  30   0
STUTTGART AR      82  68  84  52 /  10  60  40   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...64

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
944 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-141000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
944 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...REMAINDER OF TONIGHT

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE
TONIGHT. THIS LINE OF STORMS SHOULD STRETCH FROM ROUGHLY HARRISON TO
AROUND MENA BY 11 PM CDT...SHIFTING EAST SLOWLY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

STRONG STORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS LINE...WITH A FEW SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE AS WELL. SOME HAIL OF AROUND AN INCH IN DIAMETER WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS...BUT THE BIGGER THREAT WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS. BEST CHANCES FOR DAMAGING WINDS
APPEAR AS IF THEY WILL BE IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS WHERE BETTER
INSTABILITY STILL EXISTS AND WHERE STRONGER STORMS ARE MOVING IN
FROM OKLAHOMA. FINALLY...WHILE THE OVERALL THREAT IS LOW...A
TORNADIC STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

AS FOR RAINFALL...QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE
FAIRLY COMMON. SOME LOCATIONS MAY RECEIVE LESS DUE TO CONVECTIVE
NATURE OF PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...STORMS WILL HAVE THE ABILITY TO
PRODUCE RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR THUS LOCALLY HEAVIER
AMOUNTS OF MORE THAN 1-2 INCHES COULD OCCUR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER IN SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN ARKANSAS SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA.

AFTER A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL PENETRATE INTO ARKANSAS FROM THE NORTH LATE WEDNESDAY AND
EARLY THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ONLY ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN WESTERN ARKANSAS LATE
THIS EVENING...SO SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

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