EF1 tornado, Rhineland to Truesdale, Missouri, March 6, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
618 PM CST Mon Mar 6 2017

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 351 PM CST Mon Mar 6 2017

Focus remains the severe threat for this evening/overnight.

Not much has changed from the prev discussion. Main question
remains if convection can develop ahead of the approaching line.
Latest guidance is trending twd this convection not developing or
at least not until much later in the event.

With the main focus being the line, a few things change slightly.
The main threat is still damaging winds and isolated tornadoes
with the QLCS with 0-1 km shear of 40 kts and 0-3km shear of
around 20 kts. Severe threat shud diminish somewhat as the line
approaches the MS River, but at least a severe wind threat shud
continue into the IL counties. Expect the severe threat to exit
the CWA around 09z tonight.

Still expecting strong/gusty wly winds on Tues. Latest guidance
suggests winds will remain just below adv criteria, but will need
to continue to monitor updates.

Tilly

.LONG TERM...  (Tuesday Night through Next Monday)
Issued at 337 PM CST Mon Mar 6 2017

(Tuesday Night - Next Monday)

Cooler weather will continue to filter into the mid-Mississippi
Valley behind the closed low near Hudson Bay Tuesday night. Pressure
gradient stays up high enough between high pressure across the lower
Mississippi Valley and the low across SE Canada to keep WSW winds up
around 5-10 knots overnight. This in turn should help keep
temperatures above the freezing mark across vast majority of the
CWA.

Northwest flow aloft will be the rule for the rest of the extended
period with a few different disturbances to keep an eye on through
the weekend and into early next week. Timing and track of these
shortwaves this far out is problematic to say the least and impacts
on sensible weather...particularly Saturday's event...will be large
so forecast uncertainty with this package is quite high heading into
the weekend.

First subtle NW flow shortwave looks to move through the region late
Thursday and Thursday night. While mid/upper level forcing for
ascent does not look particularly strong nor focused...strong low-
level warm/moist advection is expected to yield a round of showers
with the best chance of across the southern third of the forecast
area.

Medium-range guidance suggests a strong arctic high pressure system
to come into the northern CONUS on Friday with the closed low across
Hudson Bay moving southeastward toward the northeastern United
States. This cold/dry antecedant airmass will likely set the stage
for a late winter/early spring winter weather event somewhere over
the midsection of the country early this weekend. As alluded to
above...very uncertain forecast but this is something to watch
moving forward. 1200 UTC deterministic (and ensembalistic) guidance
has shifted further to the S/W with the track of the low-level
cyclone which puts the CWA within the cold sector increasing the
chances for wintry precipitation.

Below normal temperatures are likely this weekend with the coldest
morning likely on Sunday behind the system. Widespread low
temperatures in the 20s appear likely but these readings could be
lower depending on what happens on Saturday.

Yet another disturbance takes aim on the bi-state region on Monday
and may bring another round of precipitation. At this point...this
system looks further to the north and warmer and would likely yield
mostly if not all plain rain.

Gosselin

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 553 PM CST Mon Mar 6 2017

Primary concern tonight is the line of strong thunderstorms
currently entering far northwest Missouri. Expect this line to
increase speed this evening as it continues to develop. Isolated
to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible ahead
of the line as well. A compromise between radar trends and short
range model guidance indicate that the line will be entering our
far northwestern counties between 03Z and 04Z this
evening...continuing to the southeast at 35-45kts. The line should
be into east central Missouri by 05-07Z and across most of our
Ozark and south central Illinois counties by 08-11Z. Expect brief
low VFR and IFR vsbys with the strongest storms, as well as
scattered wind gusts in excess of 40kts. The cold front driving
this line will turn the wind to the west- northwest. Gusty west-
northwest flow and VFR conditions are expected through Tuesday.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

Primary concern is the line of strong storms over northwest
Missouri at this time. The line is expected to reach Lambert
between 06-07Z. Until then, an isolated shower or thunderstorm may
affect the terminal. When the line reaches Lambert, a period of
MVFR and possibly IFR visibility in heavy rain is likely...with
wind gusts possibly in excess of 35-40kts...though am not
confident enough to include this in the tempo at this time.
Conditions should improve pretty rapidly after the storms pass.
The cold front behind the line will shift the wind to the west-
northwest and gusty wind and VFR conditions are expected behind
the front through Tuesday.

Carney

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 341 PM CST Mon Mar 6 2017

Very low humidity values of 15 to 20 percent along with strong
and gusty westerly winds across northeast, central, and east-
central Missouri as well as west-central IL. These conditions
will be conducive to high fire danger Tuesday afternoon. However,
there is plenty of uncertainty in fuel moisture levels given the
forecast for a round of showers and thunderstorms expected
tonight. If the fuels dry out sufficiently, a red flag warning may
need to be issued but given the aforementioned uncertainty with
respect to fuel moisture levels on Tuesday, a fire weather watch
was issued with this forecast package.

Gosselin

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening
     for Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Franklin MO-
     Gasconade MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-Marion MO-Moniteau
     MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Saint
     Charles MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for Audrain MO-Boone
     MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Marion MO-Moniteau
     MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO.

IL...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening
     for Adams IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-Pike
     IL.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for Adams IL.

&&

WFO LSX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
352 PM CST Mon Mar 6 2017

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-071115-
Greene IL-Macoupin IL-Montgomery IL-Bond IL-Fayette IL-Clinton IL-
Marion IL-Washington IL-Randolph IL-Adams IL-Brown IL-Pike IL-
Calhoun IL-Jersey IL-Madison IL-Saint Clair IL-Monroe IL-Knox MO-
Lewis MO-Shelby MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-Pike MO-Boone MO-
Audrain MO-Moniteau MO-Cole MO-Osage MO-Callaway MO-Montgomery MO-
Lincoln MO-Gasconade MO-Warren MO-Saint Charles MO-Franklin MO-
Saint Louis MO-Saint Louis City MO-Jefferson MO-Crawford MO-
Washington MO-Saint Francois MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Iron MO-
Madison MO-Reynolds MO-
352 PM CST Mon Mar 6 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern and
central Missouri as well as west central and southwest Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Severe thunderstorms will be possible tonight, mainly during the
evening and overnight hours. The primary severe threat will be
damaging winds, but there could also be large hail and isolated tornadoes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

There is a fire weather watch Tuesday afternoon due to very low
relative humidity values, gusty west winds, and drying fuels.

High fire danger is likely Wednesday afternoon for portions of
northeast Missouri and west-central Illinois due to low relative
humidity values, strong west southwest winds, and low fuel
moisture.

A rain/snow mix is likely late Friday night and early Saturday
morning, mainly across portions of northeastern Missouri and
west-central Illinois.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is likely.

Gosselin

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