Northern lights in New Mexico tonight
New Mexico sits equatorward of where the aurora usually reaches. It takes about Kp 8.1 at the state’s most northerly point, which is a severe storm: the sort that came on 10 and 11 May 2024, when the aurora was photographed across most of the country.
From NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center, read Sep 20, 12:00 UTC.
Radar
Reflectivity now over New Mexico. Open it to see the aurora forecast on the map.
Radar mosaic and map layers from NOAA MRMS. Boundaries from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet.
Rain and snow mean cloud, and cloud is the last thing between a forecast aurora and the sky you are standing under. Each town page carries that town’s own sky cover forecast for the dark hours.
When it happens here
No town in New Mexico has a page of its own, because on all but the rarest nights the honest answer is no. The state’s most poleward ground, near Raton, is 45 degrees geomagnetic latitude. What to watch instead: this page, the Kp forecast, and a G4 or G5 warning from SWPC. In a storm that size the aurora here is usually a red glow low on the northern horizon rather than the green curtains of the north, and a camera sees it long before the eye does.
How far south each storm level reaches
NOAA’s space weather scales state the geomagnetic latitude each level of geomagnetic storm reaches, and the places its aurora has been seen from. The geographic latitudes are those lines converted with the geomagnetic dipole; the aurora sits low on the northern horizon there, and overhead far poleward of it.
| Storm | Geomagnetic | Central US | Eastern US | Northern Europe | NOAA says the aurora |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G1 MinorKp 5 | 60° | 52°N | 51°N | 61°N | commonly visible at high latitudes: northern Michigan and Maine |
| G2 ModerateKp 6 | 55° | 47°N | 46°N | 56°N | has been seen as low as New York and Idaho |
| G3 StrongKp 7 | 50° | 42°N | 41°N | 51°N | has been seen as low as Illinois and Oregon |
| G4 SevereKp 8 | 45° | 37°N | 36°N | 45°N | has been seen as low as Alabama and northern California |
| G5 ExtremeKp 9 | 40° | 32°N | 31°N | 40°N | has been seen as low as Florida and southern Texas |
Source: NOAA space weather scales, swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation. Below Kp 5 the oval contracts more slowly; this section runs the line from 66 degrees geomagnetic at Kp 0 to the scale’s 60 degrees at Kp 5.
Kp by 3-hour block
SWPC’s planetary K index forecast, three days ahead. Kp is a single number for the whole planet, from magnetometers around the world, on a scale of 0 to 9 in thirds.
| Block (UTC) | Kp | Level | Seen from | Central US |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.00 | Quiet | 65° geomag. | 57°N | |
| 1.00 | Quiet | 65° geomag. | 57°N | |
| 1.33 | Quiet | 64° geomag. | 56°N | |
| 1.33 | Quiet | 64° geomag. | 56°N | |
| 1.67 | Quiet | 64° geomag. | 56°N | |
| 2.00 | Quiet | 64° geomag. | 55°N | |
| 1.67 | Quiet | 64° geomag. | 56°N | |
| 1.33 | Quiet | 64° geomag. | 56°N | |
| 0.67 | Quiet | 65° geomag. | 57°N | |
| 1.33 | Quiet | 64° geomag. | 56°N | |
| 1.33 | Quiet | 64° geomag. | 56°N | |
| 1.67 | Quiet | 64° geomag. | 56°N | |
| 1.67 | Quiet | 64° geomag. | 56°N | |
| 1.33 | Quiet | 64° geomag. | 56°N | |
| 1.33 | Quiet | 64° geomag. | 56°N | |
| 1.33 | Quiet | 64° geomag. | 56°N | |
| 1.33 | Quiet | 64° geomag. | 56°N | |
| 1.33 | Quiet | 64° geomag. | 56°N | |
| 1.67 | Quiet | 64° geomag. | 56°N | |
| 1.67 | Quiet | 64° geomag. | 56°N | |
| 1.67 | Quiet | 64° geomag. | 56°N |
The forecast is for the planet, not for your sky. A block at Kp 5 means the field is disturbed enough for the aurora to reach 60 degrees geomagnetic somewhere along the night side; whether you see it depends on being on the night side, on darkness, and on the clouds.
Other states with aurora pages
- Alaska
- Colorado
- Connecticut
- Delaware
- District of Columbia
- Idaho
- Illinois
- Indiana
- Iowa
- Kansas
- Kentucky
- Maine
- Maryland
- Massachusetts
- Michigan
- Minnesota
- Missouri
- Montana
- Nebraska
- Nevada
- New Hampshire
- New Jersey
- New York
- North Dakota
- Ohio
- Oregon
- Pennsylvania
- Rhode Island
- South Dakota
- Utah
- Vermont
- Virginia
- Washington
- West Virginia
- Wisconsin
- Wyoming
What this means
Each place is placed by its geomagnetic latitude, measured from the geomagnetic dipole pole, and compared with the reach NOAA states for each storm level on its space weather scales: G1 (Kp 5) about 60 degrees geomagnetic, G2 55, G3 50, G4 45, G5 (Kp 9) 40. Reading that backwards gives the Kp a place needs. Below Kp 5 the oval contracts more slowly and the line runs from 66 degrees at Kp 0 to 60 at Kp 5.
The forecasts have different horizons and the pages keep them apart: OVATION is the only thing that knows whether an aurora is out now, and it reaches 30 to 90 minutes ahead; the planetary Kp forecast runs three days; the 27-day outlook names likely active days and is not a forecast of any one night. None of them knows the clouds, which is why a town page reads its own forecast for those.
Sources
From NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center: the OVATION aurora forecast, the planetary K index forecast, the 3-day forecast, the 27-day outlook, its watches, warnings and alerts, and the real-time solar wind. Read Sep 20, 12:00 UTC.