Northern lights in Minnesota tonight
The aurora reaches Minnesota at about Kp 5.6 in the far north of the state and Kp 6.6 at its southern edge. SWPC's highest forecast Kp over the next three days is 3+, in the 00-03 UTC block on Thu, Sep 24. Not tonight. The forecast Kp of 2- is well below what it takes for the aurora to reach this far south.
From NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center, read Sep 21, 09:48 UTC.
The oval right now
NOAA’s OVATION model: the chance of aurora overhead 30 to 90 minutes from now, valid Sep 21, 10:58 UTC. Green is a low chance, red a high one.
Rain and snow mean cloud, and cloud is the last thing between a forecast aurora and the sky you are standing under. Each town page carries that town’s own sky cover forecast for the dark hours.
Open the live map with the aurora forecast
Aurora forecast from NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center. Original at SWPC
Tonight at Warroad
The most poleward town in Minnesota with a page, and the first place in the state an aurora reaches. Cloud cover is on each town’s own page.
No tonight
Not tonight. The forecast Kp of 2- is well below what it takes for the aurora to reach this far south.
- The aurora reaches this place at about Kp 5.6, which is 57 degrees geomagnetic latitude on NOAA's storm scales.
- SWPC forecasts a highest Kp of 2- (1.67) during tonight's dark hours: quiet.
- The moon is waxing gibbous, 71% lit, and up for part of the dark hours.
Towns best placed in Minnesota
The 24 most poleward of the 514 towns in Minnesota with a page. Each page gives tonight’s chance there, the darkness, the moon and that town’s own cloud forecast.
- WarroadRoseau County · population 1,799 · 57.2° geomagneticKp 5.6
- RoseauRoseau County · population 2,715 · 57.1° geomagneticKp 5.6
- BaudetteLake of the Woods County · population 1,063 · 57.1° geomagneticKp 5.6
- RanierKoochiching County · population 586 · 57.1° geomagneticKp 5.6
- International FallsKoochiching County · population 6,158 · 57.1° geomagneticKp 5.6
- HallockKittson County · population 953 · 57.0° geomagneticKp 5.6
- GreenbushRoseau County · population 733 · 57.0° geomagneticKp 5.6
- LittleforkKoochiching County · population 622 · 56.9° geomagneticKp 5.6
- KarlstadKittson County · population 733 · 56.8° geomagneticKp 5.6
- StephenMarshall County · population 655 · 56.7° geomagneticKp 5.7
- ArgyleMarshall County · population 642 · 56.6° geomagneticKp 5.7
- ElySaint Louis County · population 3,408 · 56.5° geomagneticKp 5.7
- WarrenMarshall County · population 1,563 · 56.4° geomagneticKp 5.7
- Grand MaraisCook County · population 1,327 · 56.4° geomagneticKp 5.7
- Thief River FallsPennington County · population 8,752 · 56.4° geomagneticKp 5.7
- PonemahBeltrami County · population 724 · 56.4° geomagneticKp 5.7
- CookSaint Louis County · population 567 · 56.4° geomagneticKp 5.7
- BabbittSaint Louis County · population 1,519 · 56.3° geomagneticKp 5.7
- RedbyBeltrami County · population 1,334 · 56.2° geomagneticKp 5.8
- Red LakeBeltrami County · population 1,731 · 56.2° geomagneticKp 5.8
- Little RockBeltrami County · population 1,208 · 56.2° geomagneticKp 5.8
- Red Lake FallsRed Lake County · population 1,406 · 56.2° geomagneticKp 5.8
- East Grand ForksPolk County · population 8,643 · 56.1° geomagneticKp 5.8
- BlackduckBeltrami County · population 779 · 56.1° geomagneticKp 5.8
Every town in Minnesota with a page
514 towns at 48 degrees geomagnetic latitude or higher, which a strong storm reaches. The figure after each is the Kp it takes there.
A
- Ada Kp 5.9
- Adams Kp 6.6
- Adrian Kp 6.6
- Afton Kp 6.3
- Aitkin Kp 6
- Albany Kp 6.2
- Albert Lea Kp 6.6
- Albertville Kp 6.3
- Alden Kp 6.6
- Alexandria Kp 6.2
- Amboy Kp 6.5
- Andover Kp 6.3
- Annandale Kp 6.3
- Anoka Kp 6.3
- Apple Valley Kp 6.4
- Appleton Kp 6.3
- Arden Hills Kp 6.3
- Argyle Kp 5.7
- Arlington Kp 6.4
- Arnold Kp 5.9
- Atwater Kp 6.3
- Audubon Kp 6
- Aurora Kp 5.8
- Austin Kp 6.6
- Avon Kp 6.2
B
- Babbitt Kp 5.7
- Bagley Kp 5.8
- Balaton Kp 6.5
- Barnesville Kp 6
- Barnum Kp 6
- Battle Lake Kp 6.1
- Baudette Kp 5.6
- Baxter Kp 6
- Bayport Kp 6.3
- Becker Kp 6.2
- Belgrade Kp 6.2
- Belle Plaine Kp 6.4
- Bemidji Kp 5.8
- Benson Kp 6.3
- Big Lake Kp 6.2
- Birchwood Kp 6.3
- Bird Island Kp 6.4
- Biwabik Kp 5.8
- Blackduck Kp 5.8
- Blaine Kp 6.3
- Blooming Prairie Kp 6.5
- Bloomington Kp 6.3
- Blue Earth Kp 6.6
- Bovey Kp 5.8
- Braham Kp 6.2
- Brainerd Kp 6
- Branch Kp 6.2
- Breckenridge Kp 6.1
- Breezy Point Kp 6
- Brooklyn Center Kp 6.3
- Brooklyn Park Kp 6.3
- Brooten Kp 6.2
- Browerville Kp 6.1
- Browns Valley Kp 6.2
- Brownsdale Kp 6.5
- Brownton Kp 6.4
- Buffalo Kp 6.3
- Buffalo Lake Kp 6.4
- Buhl Kp 5.8
- Burnsville Kp 6.3
- Butterfield Kp 6.5
- Byron Kp 6.5
C
- Caledonia Kp 6.5
- Cambridge Kp 6.2
- Canby Kp 6.4
- Cannon Falls Kp 6.4
- Carlton Kp 6
- Carver Kp 6.4
- Cass Lake Kp 5.8
- Center City Kp 6.2
- Centerville Kp 6.3
- Champlin Kp 6.3
- Chanhassen Kp 6.3
- Chaska Kp 6.3
- Chatfield Kp 6.5
- Chisago City Kp 6.2
- Chisholm Kp 5.8
- Circle Pines Kp 6.3
- Clara City Kp 6.3
- Claremont Kp 6.5
- Clarissa Kp 6.1
- Clarkfield Kp 6.4
- Clarks Grove Kp 6.5
- Clear Lake Kp 6.2
- Clearbrook Kp 5.8
- Clearwater Kp 6.2
- Cleveland Kp 6.4
- Cloquet Kp 5.9
- Cohasset Kp 5.9
- Cokato Kp 6.3
- Cold Spring Kp 6.2
- Coleraine Kp 5.8
- Collegeville Kp 6.2
- Cologne Kp 6.4
- Columbia Heights Kp 6.3
- Columbus Kp 6.2
- Cook Kp 5.7
- Coon Rapids Kp 6.3
- Corcoran Kp 6.3
- Cottage Grove Kp 6.3
- Cottonwood Kp 6.4
- Courtland Kp 6.5
- Crookston Kp 5.8
- Crosby Kp 6
- Crosslake Kp 6
- Crystal Kp 6.3
D
- Dassel Kp 6.3
- Dawson Kp 6.4
- Dayton Kp 6.3
- Deephaven Kp 6.3
- Deer River Kp 5.8
- Deerwood Kp 6
- Delano Kp 6.3
- Dellwood Kp 6.3
- Detroit Lakes Kp 6
- Dilworth Kp 6
- Dodge Center Kp 6.5
- Dover Kp 6.5
- Duluth Kp 5.9
- Dundas Kp 6.4
E
- Eagan Kp 6.3
- Eagle Bend Kp 6.1
- Eagle Lake Kp 6.5
- East Bethel Kp 6.2
- East Grand Forks Kp 5.8
- East Gull Lake Kp 6
- Eden Prairie Kp 6.3
- Eden Valley Kp 6.3
- Edgerton Kp 6.6
- Edina Kp 6.3
- Elbow Lake Kp 6.1
- Elgin Kp 6.5
- Elk River Kp 6.2
- Elko Kp 6.4
- Elko New Market Kp 6.4
- Ellendale Kp 6.5
- Elmore Kp 6.6
- Ely Kp 5.7
- Elysian Kp 6.5
- Emily Kp 6
- Esko Kp 5.9
- Evansville Kp 6.1
- Eveleth Kp 5.8
- Excelsior Kp 6.3
- Eyota Kp 6.5
F
- Fairfax Kp 6.4
- Fairmont Kp 6.6
- Falcon Heights Kp 6.3
- Faribault Kp 6.4
- Farmington Kp 6.4
- Fergus Falls Kp 6.1
- Fertile Kp 5.8
- Floodwood Kp 5.9
- Foley Kp 6.2
- Forest Lake Kp 6.2
- Foreston Kp 6.2
- Fosston Kp 5.8
- Frazee Kp 6
- Freeport Kp 6.2
- Fridley Kp 6.3
- Fulda Kp 6.6
G
- Gaylord Kp 6.4
- Geneva Kp 6.5
- Gibbon Kp 6.4
- Gilbert Kp 5.8
- Glencoe Kp 6.4
- Glenville Kp 6.6
- Glenwood Kp 6.2
- Glyndon Kp 6
- Golden Valley Kp 6.3
- Good Thunder Kp 6.5
- Goodhue Kp 6.4
- Goodview Kp 6.5
- Graceville Kp 6.2
- Grand Marais Kp 5.7
- Grand Meadow Kp 6.5
- Grand Rapids Kp 5.9
- Granite Falls Kp 6.4
- Grant Kp 6.3
- Green Isle Kp 6.4
- Greenbush Kp 5.6
- Greenfield Kp 6.3
- Greenwood Kp 6.3
- Grove City Kp 6.3
H
- Hallock Kp 5.6
- Halstad Kp 5.9
- Ham Lake Kp 6.2
- Hamburg Kp 6.4
- Hampton Kp 6.4
- Hancock Kp 6.2
- Hanover Kp 6.3
- Harmony Kp 6.6
- Harris Kp 6.2
- Hastings Kp 6.3
- Hawley Kp 6
- Hayfield Kp 6.5
- Hector Kp 6.4
- Henderson Kp 6.4
- Hendricks Kp 6.4
- Henning Kp 6.1
- Hermantown Kp 5.9
- Heron Lake Kp 6.6
- Hibbing Kp 5.8
- Hill City Kp 5.9
- Hills Kp 6.6
- Hilltop Kp 6.3
- Hinckley Kp 6.1
- Hoffman Kp 6.2
- Hokah Kp 6.5
- Holdingford Kp 6.2
- Hopkins Kp 6.3
- Houston Kp 6.5
- Howard Lake Kp 6.3
- Hoyt Lakes Kp 5.8
- Hugo Kp 6.3
- Hutchinson Kp 6.3
I
- Independence Kp 6.3
- International Falls Kp 5.6
- Inver Grove Heights Kp 6.3
- Ironton Kp 6
- Isanti Kp 6.2
- Isle Kp 6.1
- Ivanhoe Kp 6.4
J
- Jackson Kp 6.6
- Janesville Kp 6.5
- Jasper Kp 6.6
- Jordan Kp 6.4
K
L
- La Crescent Kp 6.5
- La Prairie Kp 5.9
- Lake Benton Kp 6.5
- Lake City Kp 6.4
- Lake Crystal Kp 6.5
- Lake Elmo Kp 6.3
- Lake Park Kp 6
- Lake Saint Croix Beach Kp 6.3
- Lake Shore Kp 6
- Lakefield Kp 6.6
- Lakeland Kp 6.3
- Lakeville Kp 6.4
- Lamberton Kp 6.5
- Landfall Kp 6.3
- Lanesboro Kp 6.5
- Lauderdale Kp 6.3
- Le Center Kp 6.4
- Le Roy Kp 6.6
- Le Sueur Kp 6.4
- Lester Prairie Kp 6.3
- Lewiston Kp 6.5
- Lexington Kp 6.3
- Lilydale Kp 6.3
- Lindstrom Kp 6.2
- Lino Lakes Kp 6.3
- Litchfield Kp 6.3
- Little Canada Kp 6.3
- Little Falls Kp 6.1
- Little Rock Kp 5.8
- Littlefork Kp 5.6
- Long Lake Kp 6.3
- Long Prairie Kp 6.1
- Longfellow Community Kp 6.3
- Lonsdale Kp 6.4
- Loretto Kp 6.3
- Luella Anderson Subdivision Kp 6.3
- Luverne Kp 6.6
- Lyle Kp 6.6
M
- Mabel Kp 6.6
- Madelia Kp 6.5
- Madison Kp 6.3
- Madison Lake Kp 6.5
- Mahnomen Kp 5.9
- Mahtomedi Kp 6.3
- Mankato Kp 6.5
- Mantorville Kp 6.5
- Maple Grove Kp 6.3
- Maple Lake Kp 6.3
- Maple Plain Kp 6.3
- Mapleton Kp 6.5
- Maplewood Kp 6.3
- Marble Kp 5.8
- Marine on Saint Croix Kp 6.3
- Marshall Kp 6.4
- Martin Lake Kp 6.2
- Mayer Kp 6.3
- Mazeppa Kp 6.4
- McIntosh Kp 5.8
- Medford Kp 6.5
- Medina Kp 6.3
- Melrose Kp 6.2
- Menahga Kp 6
- Mendota Heights Kp 6.3
- Milaca Kp 6.2
- Minneapolis Kp 6.3
- Minneota Kp 6.4
- Minnesota Lake Kp 6.5
- Minnetonka Kp 6.3
- Minnetonka Beach Kp 6.3
- Minnetonka Mills Kp 6.3
- Minnetrista Kp 6.3
- Montevideo Kp 6.3
- Montgomery Kp 6.4
- Monticello Kp 6.2
- Montrose Kp 6.3
- Moorhead Kp 6
- Moose Lake Kp 6
- Mora Kp 6.1
- Morgan Kp 6.4
- Morris Kp 6.2
- Morristown Kp 6.5
- Motley Kp 6.1
- Mound Kp 6.3
- Mounds View Kp 6.3
- Mountain Iron Kp 5.8
- Mountain Lake Kp 6.5
N
- Nashwauk Kp 5.8
- Naytahwaush Kp 5.9
- New Brighton Kp 6.3
- New Hope Kp 6.3
- New London Kp 6.3
- New Market Kp 6.4
- New Prague Kp 6.4
- New Richland Kp 6.5
- New Ulm Kp 6.5
- New York Mills Kp 6
- Newport Kp 6.3
- Nicollet Kp 6.5
- Nisswa Kp 6
- North Branch Kp 6.2
- North Mankato Kp 6.5
- North Oaks Kp 6.3
- North Saint Paul Kp 6.3
- Northfield Kp 6.4
- Norwood (historical) Kp 6.4
- Norwood Young America Kp 6.4
- Nowthen Kp 6.2
O
- Oak Grove Kp 6.2
- Oak Park Heights Kp 6.3
- Oakdale Kp 6.3
- Oakport Kp 6
- Olivia Kp 6.4
- Onamia Kp 6.1
- Orono Kp 6.3
- Oronoco Kp 6.5
- Ortonville Kp 6.3
- Osakis Kp 6.2
- Osseo Kp 6.3
- Otsego Kp 6.2
- Ottertail Kp 6
- Owatonna Kp 6.5
P
- Park Rapids Kp 5.9
- Parkers Prairie Kp 6.1
- Parkville Kp 5.8
- Paynesville Kp 6.2
- Pelican Rapids Kp 6
- Pennock Kp 6.3
- Pequot Lakes Kp 6
- Perham Kp 6
- Pierz Kp 6.1
- Pine City Kp 6.1
- Pine Island Kp 6.5
- Pine River Kp 6
- Pipestone Kp 6.5
- Plainview Kp 6.5
- Pleasant Lake Kp 6.2
- Plymouth Kp 6.3
- Ponemah Kp 5.7
- Preston Kp 6.5
- Princeton Kp 6.2
- Prior Lake Kp 6.4
- Proctor Kp 5.9
R
- Racine Kp 6.5
- Ramsey Kp 6.3
- Randall Kp 6.1
- Ranier Kp 5.6
- Raymond Kp 6.3
- Red Lake Kp 5.8
- Red Lake Falls Kp 5.8
- Red Wing Kp 6.4
- Redby Kp 5.8
- Redwood Falls Kp 6.4
- Renville Kp 6.4
- Rice Kp 6.2
- Richfield Kp 6.3
- Richmond Kp 6.2
- Robbinsdale Kp 6.3
- Rochester Kp 6.5
- Rock Creek Kp 6.1
- Rockford Kp 6.3
- Rockville Kp 6.2
- Rogers Kp 6.3
- Rollingstone Kp 6.5
- Roseau Kp 5.6
- Rosemount Kp 6.4
- Roseville Kp 6.3
- Royalton Kp 6.1
- Rush City Kp 6.2
- Rushford Kp 6.5
- Rushford Village Kp 6.5
S
- Sabin Kp 6
- Sacred Heart Kp 6.4
- Saint Anthony Kp 6.3
- Saint Augusta Kp 6.2
- Saint Bonifacius Kp 6.3
- Saint Charles Kp 6.5
- Saint Clair Kp 6.5
- Saint Cloud Kp 6.2
- Saint Francis Kp 6.2
- Saint James Kp 6.5
- Saint Joseph Kp 6.2
- Saint Louis Park Kp 6.3
- Saint Michael Kp 6.3
- Saint Paul Kp 6.3
- Saint Paul Park Kp 6.3
- Saint Peter Kp 6.4
- Saint Stephen Kp 6.2
- Sandstone Kp 6.1
- Sartell Kp 6.2
- Sauk Centre Kp 6.2
- Sauk Rapids Kp 6.2
- Savage Kp 6.3
- Scandia Kp 6.2
- Scanlon Kp 5.9
- Sebeka Kp 6
- Shafer Kp 6.2
- Shakopee Kp 6.3
- Sherburn Kp 6.6
- Shoreview Kp 6.3
- Shorewood Kp 6.3
- Silver Bay Kp 5.8
- Silver Lake Kp 6.3
- Slayton Kp 6.5
- Sleepy Eye Kp 6.5
- South Saint Paul Kp 6.3
- Spicer Kp 6.3
- Spring Grove Kp 6.6
- Spring Lake Park Kp 6.3
- Spring Park Kp 6.3
- Spring Valley Kp 6.6
- Springfield Kp 6.5
- Stacy Kp 6.2
- Staples Kp 6.1
- Starbuck Kp 6.2
- Stephen Kp 5.7
- Stewart Kp 6.4
- Stewartville Kp 6.5
- Stillwater Kp 6.3
- Stockton Kp 6.5
- Sunfish Lake Kp 6.3
T
- Taconite Kp 5.8
- Taylors Falls Kp 6.2
- The Lakes Kp 6.5
- Thief River Falls Kp 5.7
- Tonka Bay Kp 6.3
- Tracy Kp 6.5
- Trimont Kp 6.6
- Truman Kp 6.5
- Twin Valley Kp 5.9
- Two Harbors Kp 5.9
- Tyler Kp 6.5
U
- Ulen Kp 5.9
V
- Vadnais Heights Kp 6.3
- Verndale Kp 6
- Victoria Kp 6.3
- Vineland Kp 6.1
- Virginia Kp 5.8
W
- Wabasha Kp 6.4
- Wabasso Kp 6.4
- Waconia Kp 6.3
- Wadena Kp 6
- Waite Park Kp 6.2
- Walker Kp 5.9
- Walnut Grove Kp 6.5
- Wanamingo Kp 6.4
- Warren Kp 5.7
- Warroad Kp 5.6
- Warsaw Kp 6.5
- Waseca Kp 6.5
- Watertown Kp 6.3
- Waterville Kp 6.5
- Watkins Kp 6.3
- Waverly Kp 6.3
- Wayzata Kp 6.3
- Welcome Kp 6.6
- Wells Kp 6.6
- West Concord Kp 6.5
- West Coon Rapids Kp 6.3
- West Saint Paul Kp 6.3
- Westbrook Kp 6.5
- Wheaton Kp 6.2
- White Bear Lake Kp 6.3
- White Earth Kp 5.9
- Willmar Kp 6.3
- Windom Kp 6.6
- Winnebago Kp 6.6
- Winona Kp 6.5
- Winsted Kp 6.3
- Winthrop Kp 6.4
- Woodbury Kp 6.3
- Worthington Kp 6.6
- Wyoming Kp 6.2
Y
- Young America (historical) Kp 6.4
Z
How far south each storm level reaches
NOAA’s space weather scales state the geomagnetic latitude each level of geomagnetic storm reaches, and the places its aurora has been seen from. The geographic latitudes are those lines converted with the geomagnetic dipole; the aurora sits low on the northern horizon there, and overhead far poleward of it.
| Storm | Geomagnetic | Central US | Eastern US | Northern Europe | NOAA says the aurora |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G1 MinorKp 5 | 60° | 52°N | 51°N | 61°N | commonly visible at high latitudes: northern Michigan and Maine |
| G2 ModerateKp 6 | 55° | 47°N | 46°N | 56°N | has been seen as low as New York and Idaho |
| G3 StrongKp 7 | 50° | 42°N | 41°N | 51°N | has been seen as low as Illinois and Oregon |
| G4 SevereKp 8 | 45° | 37°N | 36°N | 45°N | has been seen as low as Alabama and northern California |
| G5 ExtremeKp 9 | 40° | 32°N | 31°N | 40°N | has been seen as low as Florida and southern Texas |
Source: NOAA space weather scales, swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation. Below Kp 5 the oval contracts more slowly; this section runs the line from 66 degrees geomagnetic at Kp 0 to the scale’s 60 degrees at Kp 5.
Kp by 3-hour block
SWPC’s planetary K index forecast, three days ahead. Kp is a single number for the whole planet, from magnetometers around the world, on a scale of 0 to 9 in thirds.
| Block (UTC) | Kp | Level | Seen from | Central US |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.67 | Quiet | 64° geomag. | 56°N | |
| 1.33 | Quiet | 64° geomag. | 56°N | |
| 1.33 | Quiet | 64° geomag. | 56°N | |
| 1.33 | Quiet | 64° geomag. | 56°N | |
| 1.33 | Quiet | 64° geomag. | 56°N | |
| 1.67 | Quiet | 64° geomag. | 56°N | |
| 2.00 | Quiet | 64° geomag. | 55°N | |
| 1.67 | Quiet | 64° geomag. | 56°N | |
| 1.33 | Quiet | 64° geomag. | 56°N | |
| 0.67 | Quiet | 65° geomag. | 57°N | |
| 0.67 | Quiet | 65° geomag. | 57°N | |
| 1.67 | Quiet | 64° geomag. | 56°N | |
| 1.67 | Quiet | 64° geomag. | 56°N | |
| 1.67 | Quiet | 64° geomag. | 56°N | |
| 2.00 | Quiet | 64° geomag. | 55°N | |
| 1.67 | Quiet | 64° geomag. | 56°N | |
| 1.33 | Quiet | 64° geomag. | 56°N | |
| 0.67 | Quiet | 65° geomag. | 57°N | |
| 0.67 | Quiet | 65° geomag. | 57°N | |
| 1.67 | Quiet | 64° geomag. | 56°N | |
| 1.67 | Quiet | 64° geomag. | 56°N | |
| 3.33 | Unsettled | 62° geomag. | 54°N |
The forecast is for the planet, not for your sky. A block at Kp 5 means the field is disturbed enough for the aurora to reach 60 degrees geomagnetic somewhere along the night side; whether you see it depends on being on the night side, on darkness, and on the clouds.
Other states with aurora pages
- Alaska
- Colorado
- Connecticut
- Delaware
- District of Columbia
- Idaho
- Illinois
- Indiana
- Iowa
- Kansas
- Kentucky
- Maine
- Maryland
- Massachusetts
- Michigan
- Missouri
- Montana
- Nebraska
- Nevada
- New Hampshire
- New Jersey
- New York
- North Dakota
- Ohio
- Oregon
- Pennsylvania
- Rhode Island
- South Dakota
- Utah
- Vermont
- Virginia
- Washington
- West Virginia
- Wisconsin
- Wyoming
What this means
Each place is placed by its geomagnetic latitude, measured from the geomagnetic dipole pole, and compared with the reach NOAA states for each storm level on its space weather scales: G1 (Kp 5) about 60 degrees geomagnetic, G2 55, G3 50, G4 45, G5 (Kp 9) 40. Reading that backwards gives the Kp a place needs. Below Kp 5 the oval contracts more slowly and the line runs from 66 degrees at Kp 0 to 60 at Kp 5.
The forecasts have different horizons and the pages keep them apart: OVATION is the only thing that knows whether an aurora is out now, and it reaches 30 to 90 minutes ahead; the planetary Kp forecast runs three days; the 27-day outlook names likely active days and is not a forecast of any one night. None of them knows the clouds, which is why a town page reads its own forecast for those.
Sources
From NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center: the OVATION aurora forecast, the planetary K index forecast, the 3-day forecast, the 27-day outlook, its watches, warnings and alerts, and the real-time solar wind. Read Sep 21, 09:48 UTC.