Northern lights in South Dakota tonight
The aurora reaches South Dakota at about Kp 6.2 in the far north of the state and Kp 6.8 at its southern edge. SWPC's highest forecast Kp over the next three days is 3+, in the 00-03 UTC block on Thu, Sep 24. Not tonight. The forecast Kp of 2- is well below what it takes for the aurora to reach this far south.
From NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center, read Sep 21, 03:26 UTC.
The oval right now
NOAA’s OVATION model: the chance of aurora overhead 30 to 90 minutes from now, valid Sep 21, 04:36 UTC. Green is a low chance, red a high one.
Rain and snow mean cloud, and cloud is the last thing between a forecast aurora and the sky you are standing under. Each town page carries that town’s own sky cover forecast for the dark hours.
Open the live map with the aurora forecast
Aurora forecast from NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center. Original at SWPC
Tonight at Veblen
The most poleward town in South Dakota with a page, and the first place in the state an aurora reaches. Cloud cover is on each town’s own page.
No tonight
Not tonight. The forecast Kp of 2- is well below what it takes for the aurora to reach this far south.
- The aurora reaches this place at about Kp 6.2, which is 54 degrees geomagnetic latitude on NOAA's storm scales.
- SWPC forecasts a highest Kp of 2- (1.67) during tonight's dark hours: quiet.
- The moon is waxing gibbous, 71% lit, and up for part of the dark hours.
Towns best placed in South Dakota
The 24 most poleward of the 152 towns in South Dakota with a page. Each page gives tonight’s chance there, the darkness, the moon and that town’s own cloud forecast.
- VeblenMarshall County · population 537 · 54.1° geomagneticKp 6.2
- BrittonMarshall County · population 1,242 · 54.0° geomagneticKp 6.2
- SissetonRoberts County · population 2,450 · 53.9° geomagneticKp 6.2
- LeolaMcPherson County · population 440 · 53.8° geomagneticKp 6.2
- GoodwillRoberts County · population 513 · 53.8° geomagneticKp 6.2
- EurekaMcPherson County · population 844 · 53.8° geomagneticKp 6.2
- McIntoshCorson County · population 175 · 53.8° geomagneticKp 6.2
- LemmonPerkins County · population 1,232 · 53.7° geomagneticKp 6.3
- McLaughlinCorson County · population 679 · 53.7° geomagneticKp 6.3
- Mound CityCampbell County · population 68 · 53.7° geomagneticKp 6.3
- WilmotRoberts County · population 504 · 53.6° geomagneticKp 6.3
- GrotonBrown County · population 1,508 · 53.6° geomagneticKp 6.3
- AberdeenBrown County · population 28,102 · 53.6° geomagneticKp 6.3
- WaubayDay County · population 567 · 53.5° geomagneticKp 6.3
- WebsterDay County · population 1,802 · 53.5° geomagneticKp 6.3
- IpswichEdmunds County · population 959 · 53.5° geomagneticKp 6.3
- SelbyWalworth County · population 634 · 53.5° geomagneticKp 6.3
- MobridgeWalworth County · population 3,466 · 53.5° geomagneticKp 6.3
- MilbankGrant County · population 3,192 · 53.5° geomagneticKp 6.3
- BowdleEdmunds County · population 502 · 53.5° geomagneticKp 6.3
- Timber LakeDewey County · population 483 · 53.3° geomagneticKp 6.3
- BisonPerkins County · population 339 · 53.3° geomagneticKp 6.3
- BuffaloHarding County · population 345 · 53.2° geomagneticKp 6.4
- WatertownCodington County · population 22,073 · 53.1° geomagneticKp 6.4
Every town in South Dakota with a page
152 towns at 48 degrees geomagnetic latitude or higher, which a strong storm reaches. The figure after each is the Kp it takes there.
A
- Aberdeen Kp 6.3
- Alcester Kp 6.7
- Alexandria Kp 6.6
- Antelope Kp 6.8
- Arlington Kp 6.5
- Armour Kp 6.7
- Ashland Heights Kp 6.6
- Aurora Kp 6.5
- Avon Kp 6.8
B
- Baltic Kp 6.6
- Belle Fourche Kp 6.5
- Beresford Kp 6.7
- Bison Kp 6.3
- Blackhawk Kp 6.6
- Bowdle Kp 6.3
- Box Elder Kp 6.6
- Brandon Kp 6.6
- Britton Kp 6.2
- Brookings Kp 6.5
- Buffalo Kp 6.4
- Burke Kp 6.8
C
- Canistota Kp 6.6
- Canton Kp 6.7
- Castlewood Kp 6.4
- Centerville Kp 6.7
- Chamberlain Kp 6.6
- Clark Kp 6.4
- Clear Lake Kp 6.4
- Colman Kp 6.6
- Colonial Pine Hills Kp 6.7
- Colton Kp 6.6
- Corsica Kp 6.7
- Crooks Kp 6.6
- Custer Kp 6.7
D
- Dakota Dunes Kp 6.8
- De Smet Kp 6.5
- Deadwood Kp 6.6
- Dell Rapids Kp 6.6
- Dupree Kp 6.4
E
- Eagle Butte Kp 6.4
- Edgemont Kp 6.8
- Elk Point Kp 6.8
- Elkton Kp 6.5
- Ellsworth Air Force Base Kp 6.6
- Estelline Kp 6.4
- Eureka Kp 6.2
F
- Faulkton Kp 6.4
- Flandreau Kp 6.5
- Fort Pierre Kp 6.5
- Fort Thompson Kp 6.6
- Freeman Kp 6.7
G
- Garretson Kp 6.6
- Gettysburg Kp 6.4
- Goodwill Kp 6.2
- Green Valley Kp 6.7
- Gregory Kp 6.7
- Groton Kp 6.3
H
- Harrisburg Kp 6.7
- Hartford Kp 6.6
- Hayti Kp 6.4
- Highmore Kp 6.5
- Hill City Kp 6.7
- Hot Springs Kp 6.8
- Howard Kp 6.6
- Humboldt Kp 6.6
- Huron Kp 6.5
I
- Ipswich Kp 6.3
J
- Jefferson Kp 6.8
- Johnson Siding Kp 6.6
K
L
- Lake Andes Kp 6.7
- Lake Preston Kp 6.5
- Lead Kp 6.6
- Lemmon Kp 6.3
- Lennox Kp 6.7
- Leola Kp 6.2
- Lower Brule Kp 6.6
M
- Madison Kp 6.6
- Manderson-White Horse Creek Kp 6.8
- Marion Kp 6.7
- Martin Kp 6.8
- McIntosh Kp 6.2
- McLaughlin Kp 6.3
- Meadow View Addition Kp 6.6
- Menno Kp 6.7
- Milbank Kp 6.3
- Miller Kp 6.5
- Mission Kp 6.8
- Mitchell Kp 6.6
- Mobridge Kp 6.3
- Mound City Kp 6.3
- Murdo Kp 6.6
N
- New Underwood Kp 6.6
- Newell Kp 6.5
- North Eagle Butte Kp 6.4
- North Sioux City Kp 6.8
- North Spearfish Kp 6.6
O
P
- Parker Kp 6.7
- Parkston Kp 6.7
- Parmelee Kp 6.8
- Philip Kp 6.6
- Piedmont Kp 6.6
- Pierre Kp 6.5
- Pine Ridge Kp 6.8
- Plankinton Kp 6.6
- Platte Kp 6.7
- Porcupine Kp 6.8
- Presho Kp 6.6
R
- Rapid City Kp 6.6
- Rapid Valley Kp 6.6
- Redfield Kp 6.4
- Rosebud Kp 6.8
S
- Saint Francis Kp 6.8
- Salem Kp 6.6
- Scotland Kp 6.7
- Selby Kp 6.3
- Shindler Kp 6.7
- Sioux Falls Kp 6.6
- Sisseton Kp 6.2
- Spearfish Kp 6.6
- Springfield Kp 6.8
- Sturgis Kp 6.6
- Summerset Kp 6.6
T
- Tea Kp 6.7
- Timber Lake Kp 6.3
- Tripp Kp 6.7
- Tyndall Kp 6.8
V
- Valley Springs Kp 6.6
- Veblen Kp 6.2
- Vermillion Kp 6.8
- Viborg Kp 6.7
- Volga Kp 6.5
W
- Wagner Kp 6.8
- Wall Kp 6.6
- Wanblee Kp 6.7
- Watertown Kp 6.4
- Waubay Kp 6.3
- Webster Kp 6.3
- Wessington Springs Kp 6.6
- White River Kp 6.7
- Whitewood Kp 6.6
- Wilmot Kp 6.3
- Winner Kp 6.7
- Woonsocket Kp 6.6
- Worthing Kp 6.7
Y
- Yankton Kp 6.8
How far south each storm level reaches
NOAA’s space weather scales state the geomagnetic latitude each level of geomagnetic storm reaches, and the places its aurora has been seen from. The geographic latitudes are those lines converted with the geomagnetic dipole; the aurora sits low on the northern horizon there, and overhead far poleward of it.
| Storm | Geomagnetic | Central US | Eastern US | Northern Europe | NOAA says the aurora |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G1 MinorKp 5 | 60° | 52°N | 51°N | 61°N | commonly visible at high latitudes: northern Michigan and Maine |
| G2 ModerateKp 6 | 55° | 47°N | 46°N | 56°N | has been seen as low as New York and Idaho |
| G3 StrongKp 7 | 50° | 42°N | 41°N | 51°N | has been seen as low as Illinois and Oregon |
| G4 SevereKp 8 | 45° | 37°N | 36°N | 45°N | has been seen as low as Alabama and northern California |
| G5 ExtremeKp 9 | 40° | 32°N | 31°N | 40°N | has been seen as low as Florida and southern Texas |
Source: NOAA space weather scales, swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation. Below Kp 5 the oval contracts more slowly; this section runs the line from 66 degrees geomagnetic at Kp 0 to the scale’s 60 degrees at Kp 5.
Kp by 3-hour block
SWPC’s planetary K index forecast, three days ahead. Kp is a single number for the whole planet, from magnetometers around the world, on a scale of 0 to 9 in thirds.
| Block (UTC) | Kp | Level | Seen from | Central US |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.33 | Quiet | 64° geomag. | 56°N | |
| 1.67 | Quiet | 64° geomag. | 56°N | |
| 1.67 | Quiet | 64° geomag. | 56°N | |
| 1.33 | Quiet | 64° geomag. | 56°N | |
| 1.33 | Quiet | 64° geomag. | 56°N | |
| 1.33 | Quiet | 64° geomag. | 56°N | |
| 1.33 | Quiet | 64° geomag. | 56°N | |
| 1.67 | Quiet | 64° geomag. | 56°N | |
| 2.00 | Quiet | 64° geomag. | 55°N | |
| 1.67 | Quiet | 64° geomag. | 56°N | |
| 1.33 | Quiet | 64° geomag. | 56°N | |
| 0.67 | Quiet | 65° geomag. | 57°N | |
| 0.67 | Quiet | 65° geomag. | 57°N | |
| 1.67 | Quiet | 64° geomag. | 56°N | |
| 1.67 | Quiet | 64° geomag. | 56°N | |
| 1.67 | Quiet | 64° geomag. | 56°N | |
| 2.00 | Quiet | 64° geomag. | 55°N | |
| 1.67 | Quiet | 64° geomag. | 56°N | |
| 1.33 | Quiet | 64° geomag. | 56°N | |
| 0.67 | Quiet | 65° geomag. | 57°N | |
| 0.67 | Quiet | 65° geomag. | 57°N | |
| 1.67 | Quiet | 64° geomag. | 56°N | |
| 1.67 | Quiet | 64° geomag. | 56°N | |
| 3.33 | Unsettled | 62° geomag. | 54°N |
The forecast is for the planet, not for your sky. A block at Kp 5 means the field is disturbed enough for the aurora to reach 60 degrees geomagnetic somewhere along the night side; whether you see it depends on being on the night side, on darkness, and on the clouds.
Other states with aurora pages
What this means
Each place is placed by its geomagnetic latitude, measured from the geomagnetic dipole pole, and compared with the reach NOAA states for each storm level on its space weather scales: G1 (Kp 5) about 60 degrees geomagnetic, G2 55, G3 50, G4 45, G5 (Kp 9) 40. Reading that backwards gives the Kp a place needs. Below Kp 5 the oval contracts more slowly and the line runs from 66 degrees at Kp 0 to 60 at Kp 5.
The forecasts have different horizons and the pages keep them apart: OVATION is the only thing that knows whether an aurora is out now, and it reaches 30 to 90 minutes ahead; the planetary Kp forecast runs three days; the 27-day outlook names likely active days and is not a forecast of any one night. None of them knows the clouds, which is why a town page reads its own forecast for those.
Sources
From NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center: the OVATION aurora forecast, the planetary K index forecast, the 3-day forecast, the 27-day outlook, its watches, warnings and alerts, and the real-time solar wind. Read Sep 21, 03:26 UTC.