Northern lights in Maryland tonight
The aurora reaches Maryland at about Kp 7.2 in the far north of the state and Kp 7.4 at its southern edge. SWPC's highest forecast Kp over the next three days is 2, in the 03-06 UTC block on Mon, Sep 21. Not tonight. The forecast Kp of 2 is well below what it takes for the aurora to reach this far south.
From NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center, read Sep 20, 23:19 UTC.
The oval right now
NOAA’s OVATION model: the chance of aurora overhead 30 to 90 minutes from now, valid Sep 21, 00:24 UTC. Green is a low chance, red a high one.
Rain and snow mean cloud, and cloud is the last thing between a forecast aurora and the sky you are standing under. Each town page carries that town’s own sky cover forecast for the dark hours.
Open the live map with the aurora forecast
Aurora forecast from NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center. Original at SWPC
Tonight at Rising Sun
The most poleward town in Maryland with a page, and the first place in the state an aurora reaches. Cloud cover is on each town’s own page.
No tonight
Not tonight. The forecast Kp of 2 is well below what it takes for the aurora to reach this far south.
- The aurora reaches this place at about Kp 7.2, which is 49 degrees geomagnetic latitude on NOAA's storm scales.
- SWPC forecasts a highest Kp of 2 (2.00) during tonight's dark hours: quiet.
- The moon is waxing gibbous, 70% lit, and up for part of the dark hours.
Towns best placed in Maryland
The 24 most poleward of the 526 towns in Maryland with a page. Each page gives tonight’s chance there, the darkness, the moon and that town’s own cloud forecast.
- Rising SunCecil County · population 2,859 · 48.9° geomagneticKp 7.2
- Highfield-CascadeWashington County · population 1,112 · 48.9° geomagneticKp 7.2
- EmmitsburgFrederick County · population 3,021 · 48.9° geomagneticKp 7.2
- PylesvilleHarford County · population 693 · 48.9° geomagneticKp 7.2
- EllerslieAllegany County · population 572 · 48.9° geomagneticKp 7.2
- LeitersburgWashington County · population 573 · 48.9° geomagneticKp 7.2
- MaugansvilleWashington County · population 3,071 · 48.9° geomagneticKp 7.2
- FinzelGarrett County · population 547 · 48.9° geomagneticKp 7.2
- HancockWashington County · population 1,550 · 48.9° geomagneticKp 7.2
- Fountainhead-Orchard HillsWashington County · population 5,666 · 48.8° geomagneticKp 7.2
- Paramount-Long MeadowWashington County · population 2,571 · 48.8° geomagneticKp 7.2
- Mount SavageAllegany County · population 873 · 48.8° geomagneticKp 7.2
- ManchesterCarroll County · population 5,408 · 48.8° geomagneticKp 7.2
- Bowmans AdditionAllegany County · population 627 · 48.8° geomagneticKp 7.2
- GrantsvilleGarrett County · population 765 · 48.8° geomagneticKp 7.2
- TaneytownCarroll County · population 6,746 · 48.8° geomagneticKp 7.2
- SmithsburgWashington County · population 2,998 · 48.8° geomagneticKp 7.2
- Wilson-ConococheagueWashington County · population 2,282 · 48.8° geomagneticKp 7.2
- CavetownWashington County · population 1,473 · 48.8° geomagneticKp 7.2
- HagerstownWashington County · population 40,432 · 48.8° geomagneticKp 7.2
- RobinwoodWashington County · population 6,918 · 48.8° geomagneticKp 7.2
- La ValeAllegany County · population 3,551 · 48.8° geomagneticKp 7.2
- FrostburgAllegany County · population 8,667 · 48.8° geomagneticKp 7.2
- CumberlandAllegany County · population 20,130 · 48.8° geomagneticKp 7.2
Every town in Maryland with a page
526 towns at 48 degrees geomagnetic latitude or higher, which a strong storm reaches. The figure after each is the Kp it takes there.
A
- Abell Kp 7.3
- Aberdeen Kp 7.3
- Aberdeen Proving Ground Kp 7.3
- Abingdon Kp 7.3
- Adamstown Kp 7.3
- Adelphi Kp 7.4
- Allendale Kp 7.3
- Annapolis Kp 7.4
- Arbutus Kp 7.3
- Arcadia Kp 7.3
- Arden on the Severn Kp 7.4
- Arlington Kp 7.3
- Armistead Gardens Kp 7.3
- Arnold Kp 7.4
- Ashburton Kp 7.3
- Ashton-Sandy Spring Kp 7.3
- Aspen Hill Kp 7.4
B
- Ballenger Creek Kp 7.3
- Baltimore Kp 7.3
- Baltimore Highlands Kp 7.3
- Baltimore Highlands Kp 7.3
- Barclay Kp 7.3
- Bartonsville Kp 7.3
- Bayview Kp 7.3
- Beechfield Kp 7.3
- Bel Air Kp 7.3
- Bel Air Kp 7.3
- Bel Air North Kp 7.3
- Bel Air South Kp 7.3
- Bellona-Gittings Kp 7.3
- Beltsville Kp 7.4
- Berea Kp 7.3
- Berwyn Heights Kp 7.4
- Bethesda Kp 7.4
- Better Waverly Kp 7.3
- Beverly Hills Kp 7.3
- Biddle Street Kp 7.3
- Bladensburg Kp 7.4
- Bolton Hill Kp 7.3
- Boonsboro Kp 7.3
- Bowie Kp 7.4
- Bowleys Quarters Kp 7.3
- Bowling Green Kp 7.2
- Bowmans Addition Kp 7.2
- Boyd-Booth Kp 7.3
- Braddock Heights Kp 7.3
- Brentwood Kp 7.4
- Brewers Hill Kp 7.3
- Bridgeview/Greenlawn Kp 7.3
- Broadway East Kp 7.3
- Brock Hall Kp 7.4
- Broening Manor Kp 7.3
- Brooklyn Kp 7.3
- Brooklyn Park Kp 7.3
- Brookmont Kp 7.4
- Brunswick Kp 7.3
- Buckeystown Kp 7.3
- Burleith-Leighton Kp 7.3
- Burtonsville Kp 7.3
- Butcher's Hill Kp 7.3
- Butlertown Kp 7.3
C
- Cabin John Kp 7.4
- Callaway-Garrison Kp 7.3
- Calverton Kp 7.4
- Cameron Village Kp 7.3
- Canton Kp 7.3
- Canton Industrial Area Kp 7.3
- Cape Saint Claire Kp 7.4
- Capitol Heights Kp 7.4
- Carney Kp 7.3
- Carroll-South Hilton Kp 7.3
- Carrollton Ridge Kp 7.3
- Catonsville Kp 7.3
- Cavetown Kp 7.2
- Cecilton Kp 7.3
- Cedarcroft Kp 7.3
- Cedmont Kp 7.3
- Cedonia Kp 7.3
- Central Forest Park Kp 7.3
- Central Park Heights Kp 7.3
- Centreville Kp 7.4
- Charles North Kp 7.3
- Charles Village Kp 7.3
- Charlestown Kp 7.2
- Charlestown Kp 7.3
- Cherry Hill Kp 7.3
- Chesapeake City Kp 7.3
- Chester Kp 7.4
- Chestertown Kp 7.3
- Cheswolde Kp 7.3
- Cheverly Kp 7.4
- Chevy Chase Kp 7.4
- Chevy Chase Section Five Kp 7.4
- Chevy Chase Section Three Kp 7.4
- Chevy Chase View Kp 7.4
- Chevy Chase Village Kp 7.4
- Chillum Kp 7.4
- Chinquapin Park Kp 7.3
- Church Hill Kp 7.3
- Clarksburg Kp 7.3
- Clover Hill Kp 7.3
- Cloverly Kp 7.3
- Cockeysville Kp 7.3
- Cold Spring Kp 7.3
- Coldstream Homestead Montebello Kp 7.3
- Colesville Kp 7.4
- College Park Kp 7.4
- Colmar Manor Kp 7.4
- Columbia Kp 7.3
- Concerned Citizens Of Forest Park Kp 7.3
- Coppin Heights/Ash-Co-East Kp 7.3
- Coral Hills Kp 7.4
- Cordova Kp 7.4
- Cottage City Kp 7.4
- Cresaptown Kp 7.3
- Crofton Kp 7.4
- Cross Country Kp 7.3
- Crownsville Kp 7.4
- Cumberland Kp 7.2
- Curtis Bay Kp 7.3
- Cylburn Kp 7.3
D
- Damascus Kp 7.3
- Darley Park Kp 7.3
- Darnestown Kp 7.3
- Davidsonville Kp 7.4
- Denton Kp 7.4
- Derwood Kp 7.3
- Dickeyville Kp 7.3
- District Heights Kp 7.4
- Dolfield Kp 7.3
- Dorchester Kp 7.3
- Downtown Kp 7.3
- Druid Heights Kp 7.3
- Dunbar-Broadway Kp 7.3
- Dundalk Kp 7.3
E
- East Arlington Kp 7.3
- East Baltimore Midway Kp 7.3
- East Riverdale Kp 7.4
- Easterwood Kp 7.3
- Eastwood Kp 7.3
- Eckhart Mines Kp 7.2
- Edgemere Kp 7.3
- Edgewater Kp 7.4
- Edgewood Kp 7.3
- Edmondson Village Kp 7.3
- Edmonston Kp 7.4
- Ednor Gardens-Lakeside Kp 7.3
- Eldersburg Kp 7.3
- Elkridge Kp 7.3
- Elkton Kp 7.2
- Ellerslie Kp 7.2
- Ellicott City Kp 7.3
- Ellwood Park/Monument Kp 7.3
- Emmitsburg Kp 7.2
- Essex Kp 7.3
F
- Fairland Kp 7.4
- Fairmount Heights Kp 7.4
- Fairplay Kp 7.3
- Fairwood Kp 7.4
- Fallstaff Kp 7.3
- Fallston Kp 7.3
- Federal Hill Kp 7.3
- Fells Point Kp 7.3
- Ferndale Kp 7.3
- Finzel Kp 7.2
- Forest Glen Kp 7.4
- Forest Park Kp 7.3
- Forestville Kp 7.4
- Fort George G Mead Junction Kp 7.3
- Fort Meade Kp 7.3
- Fountainhead-Orchard Hills Kp 7.2
- Four Corners Kp 7.4
- Frankford Kp 7.3
- Franklin Square Kp 7.3
- Franklintown Kp 7.3
- Franklintown Road Kp 7.3
- Frederick Kp 7.3
- Friendship Village Kp 7.4
- Frostburg Kp 7.2
- Fulton Kp 7.3
- Funkstown Kp 7.2
G
- Gaithersburg Kp 7.3
- Galena Kp 7.3
- Galesville Kp 7.4
- Gambrills Kp 7.3
- Garrett Park Kp 7.4
- Garrison Kp 7.3
- Garwyn Oaks Kp 7.3
- Gay Street Kp 7.3
- Germantown Kp 7.3
- Glen Kp 7.3
- Glen Burnie Kp 7.3
- Glen Oaks Kp 7.3
- Glenarden Kp 7.4
- Glenham-Belhar Kp 7.3
- Glenmont Kp 7.4
- Glenn Dale Kp 7.4
- Goddard Kp 7.4
- Graceland Park Kp 7.3
- Grantsville Kp 7.2
- Grasonville Kp 7.4
- Greater Upper Marlboro Kp 7.4
- Greektown Kp 7.3
- Green Haven Kp 7.3
- Green Valley Kp 7.3
- Greenbelt Kp 7.4
- Greenmount West Kp 7.3
- Greensboro Kp 7.4
- Greenspring Kp 7.3
- Grove Park Kp 7.3
- Guilford Kp 7.3
- Gwynn Oak Kp 7.3
- Gwynns Falls Kp 7.3
H
- Hagerstown Kp 7.2
- Halfway Kp 7.2
- Hamilton Hills Kp 7.3
- Hampden Kp 7.3
- Hampstead Kp 7.2
- Hampton Kp 7.3
- Hancock Kp 7.2
- Hanlon-Longwood Kp 7.3
- Hanover Kp 7.3
- Harlem Park Kp 7.3
- Harwood Kp 7.3
- Havre de Grace Kp 7.3
- Herald Harbor Kp 7.4
- Heritage Crossing Kp 7.3
- Highfield-Cascade Kp 7.2
- Highland Kp 7.3
- Highlandtown Kp 7.3
- Hillandale Kp 7.4
- Hillcrest Heights Kp 7.4
- Hillen Kp 7.3
- Hillsmere Shores Kp 7.4
- Hoes Heights Kp 7.3
- Hollins Market Kp 7.3
- Homeland Kp 7.3
- Howard Park Kp 7.3
- Hunt Valley Kp 7.3
- Hunting Ridge Kp 7.3
- Hyattsville Kp 7.4
I
- Idlewood Kp 7.3
- Ilchester Kp 7.3
- Inner Harbor Kp 7.3
- Irvington Kp 7.3
J
- Jarrettsville Kp 7.2
- Jefferson Kp 7.3
- Jessup Kp 7.3
- Johns Hopkins Homewood Kp 7.3
- Johnston Square Kp 7.3
- Jonestown Kp 7.3
- Joppatowne Kp 7.3
K
- Keedysville Kp 7.3
- Kemp Mill Kp 7.4
- Kenilworth Park Kp 7.3
- Kensington Kp 7.4
- Kent Narrows Kp 7.4
- Keswick Kp 7.3
- Kettering Kp 7.4
- Kingstown Kp 7.3
- Kingsville Kp 7.3
L
- La Vale Kp 7.2
- Lake Arbor Kp 7.4
- Lake Evesham Kp 7.3
- Lake Shore Kp 7.3
- Lake Walker Kp 7.3
- Lakeland Kp 7.3
- Landover Kp 7.4
- Landover Hills Kp 7.4
- Langley Park Kp 7.4
- Langston Hughes Kp 7.3
- Lanham Kp 7.4
- Lanham-Seabrook Kp 7.4
- Lansdowne Kp 7.3
- Largo Kp 7.4
- Lauraville Kp 7.3
- Laurel Kp 7.3
- Layhill Kp 7.3
- Leisure World Kp 7.3
- Leitersburg Kp 7.2
- Levindale Kp 7.3
- Libertytown Kp 7.3
- Linganore Kp 7.3
- Linthicum Kp 7.3
- Little Italy Kp 7.3
- Loch Lynn Heights Kp 7.3
- Loch Raven Kp 7.3
- Lochearn Kp 7.3
- Locust Point Kp 7.3
- Locust Point Industrial Area Kp 7.3
- Lonaconing Kp 7.3
- Londontowne Kp 7.4
- Loyola/Notre Dame Kp 7.3
- Lutherville Kp 7.3
- Lutherville-Timonium Kp 7.3
M
- Madison Park Kp 7.3
- Madison-Eastend Kp 7.3
- Manchester Kp 7.2
- Marlboro Meadows Kp 7.4
- Marlboro Village Kp 7.4
- Marlow Heights Kp 7.4
- Martins Additions Kp 7.4
- Maryland City Kp 7.3
- Maugansville Kp 7.2
- Mayfield Kp 7.3
- Mayo Kp 7.4
- Mays Chapel Kp 7.3
- McCoole Kp 7.3
- McElderry Park Kp 7.3
- Medfield Kp 7.3
- Medford Kp 7.3
- Mid-Govans Kp 7.3
- Mid-Town Belvedere Kp 7.3
- Middle East Kp 7.3
- Middle River Kp 7.3
- Middletown Kp 7.3
- Midtown-Edmondson Kp 7.3
- Milford Mill Kp 7.3
- Millhill Kp 7.3
- Millington Kp 7.3
- Milton-Montford Kp 7.3
- Mitchellville Kp 7.4
- Mondawmin Kp 7.3
- Montgomery Village Kp 7.3
- Moravia-Walther Kp 7.3
- Morgan State University Kp 7.3
- Morningside Kp 7.4
- Morrell Park Kp 7.3
- Mosher Kp 7.3
- Mount Aetna Kp 7.2
- Mount Airy Kp 7.3
- Mount Holly Kp 7.3
- Mount Lena Kp 7.3
- Mount Rainier Kp 7.4
- Mount Savage Kp 7.2
- Mount Vernon Kp 7.3
- Mount Washington Kp 7.3
- Mount Winans Kp 7.3
- Mountain Lake Park Kp 7.3
- Myersville Kp 7.3
N
- Naval Academy Kp 7.4
- New Carrollton Kp 7.4
- New Market Kp 7.3
- New Northwood Kp 7.3
- New Southwest/Mount Clare Kp 7.3
- New Windsor Kp 7.3
- North Bel Air Kp 7.3
- North Bethesda Kp 7.4
- North Brentwood Kp 7.4
- North Chevy Chase Kp 7.4
- North East Kp 7.2
- North Harford Road Kp 7.3
- North Kensington Kp 7.4
- North Laurel Kp 7.3
- North Potomac Kp 7.4
- North Roland Park/Poplar Hill Kp 7.3
- Northwest Community Action Kp 7.3
O
- O'Donnell Heights Kp 7.3
- Oakenshawe Kp 7.3
- Oakland Kp 7.3
- Oaklee Kp 7.3
- Odenton Kp 7.3
- Old Town Kp 7.3
- Oliver Kp 7.3
- Olney Kp 7.3
- Orchard Ridge Kp 7.3
- Original Northwood Kp 7.3
- Otterbein Kp 7.3
- Overlea Kp 7.3
- Overlea Kp 7.3
- Owings Mills Kp 7.3
P
- Panway/Braddish Avenue Kp 7.3
- Paramount-Long Meadow Kp 7.2
- Park Circle Kp 7.3
- Parklane Kp 7.3
- Parkview/Woodbrook Kp 7.3
- Parkville Kp 7.3
- Parole Kp 7.4
- Pasadena Kp 7.3
- Patterson Park Neighborhood Kp 7.3
- Patterson Place Kp 7.3
- Pen Lucy Kp 7.3
- Penn North Kp 7.3
- Penn-Fallsway Kp 7.3
- Penrose/Fayette Street Outreach Kp 7.3
- Peppermill Village Kp 7.4
- Perkins Homes Kp 7.3
- Perring Loch Kp 7.3
- Perry Hall Kp 7.3
- Perryman Kp 7.3
- Perryville Kp 7.3
- Pikesville Kp 7.3
- Pimlico Good Neighbors Kp 7.3
- Pleasant Hills Kp 7.3
- Pleasant View Gardens Kp 7.3
- Point of Rocks Kp 7.3
- Poolesville Kp 7.3
- Poppleton Kp 7.3
- Port Deposit Kp 7.2
- Potomac Kp 7.4
- Potomac Park Kp 7.2
- Pumphrey Kp 7.3
- Purnell Kp 7.3
- Pylesville Kp 7.2
Q
- Queen Anne Kp 7.4
- Queenstown Kp 7.4
- Queenstown Kp 7.4
R
- Radnor-Winston Kp 7.3
- Ramblewood Kp 7.3
- Randallstown Kp 7.3
- Rawlings Kp 7.3
- Redland Kp 7.3
- Reisterstown Kp 7.3
- Reisterstown Station Kp 7.3
- Remington Kp 7.3
- Reservoir Hill Kp 7.3
- Richnor Springs Kp 7.3
- Ridgely Kp 7.4
- Ridgely's Delight Kp 7.3
- Rising Sun Kp 7.2
- Riva Kp 7.4
- Riverdale Park Kp 7.4
- Riverside Kp 7.3
- Riverside Kp 7.3
- Riverside Kp 7.3
- Riviera Beach Kp 7.3
- Robinwood Kp 7.2
- Robinwood Kp 7.4
- Rock Hall Kp 7.3
- Rockville Kp 7.3
- Rognel Heights Kp 7.3
- Roland Park Kp 7.3
- Rosedale Kp 7.3
- Rosemont Kp 7.3
- Rosemont East Kp 7.3
- Rosemont Homeowners/Tenants Kp 7.3
- Rossmoor Kp 7.3
- Rossville Kp 7.3
S
- Saint Agnes Kp 7.3
- Saint James Kp 7.3
- Saint Josephs Kp 7.3
- Sandtown-Winchester Kp 7.3
- Savage Kp 7.3
- Scaggsville Kp 7.3
- Seabrook Kp 7.4
- Seat Pleasant Kp 7.4
- Selby-on-the-Bay Kp 7.4
- Seton Hill Kp 7.3
- Severn Kp 7.3
- Severna Park Kp 7.4
- Shady Side Kp 7.4
- Sharp-Leadenhall Kp 7.3
- Sharpsburg Kp 7.3
- Shipley Hill Kp 7.3
- Silver Hill Kp 7.4
- Silver Spring Kp 7.4
- Smithsburg Kp 7.2
- Somerset Kp 7.4
- South Baltimore Kp 7.3
- South Bel Air Kp 7.3
- South Clifton Park Kp 7.3
- South Gate Kp 7.3
- South Kensington Kp 7.4
- South Laurel Kp 7.4
- Spencerville Kp 7.3
- Spring Ridge Kp 7.3
- Springdale Kp 7.4
- Stevensville Kp 7.4
- Stonewood-Pentwood-Winston Kp 7.3
- Suitland Kp 7.4
- Suitland-Silver Hill Kp 7.4
- Summerfield Kp 7.4
- Sykesville Kp 7.3
T
- Takoma Park Kp 7.4
- Taneytown Kp 7.2
- Ten Hills Kp 7.3
- The Orchards Kp 7.3
- Thurmont Kp 7.2
- Timonium Kp 7.3
- Towanda-Grantley Kp 7.3
- Towson Kp 7.3
- Travilah Kp 7.4
- Tremont Kp 7.3
- Trial Kp 7.3
- Tuscany-Canterbury Kp 7.3
U
- Union Bridge Kp 7.3
- Union Square Kp 7.3
- University Of Maryland Kp 7.3
- University Park Kp 7.4
- Uplands Kp 7.3
- Upper Fells Point Kp 7.3
- Upton Kp 7.3
- Urbana Kp 7.3
V
- Village of Cross Keys Kp 7.3
- Violetville Kp 7.3
W
- Wakefield Kp 7.3
- Walbrook Kp 7.3
- Walker Mill Kp 7.4
- Walkersville Kp 7.3
- Waltherson Kp 7.3
- Washington Grove Kp 7.3
- Washington Hill Kp 7.3
- Washington Village/Pigtown Kp 7.3
- Waverly Kp 7.3
- West Arlington Kp 7.3
- West Elkridge Kp 7.3
- West Forest Park Kp 7.3
- West Hills Kp 7.3
- West Laurel Kp 7.3
- Westernport Kp 7.3
- Westfield Kp 7.3
- Westgate Kp 7.3
- Westminster Kp 7.3
- Westphalia Kp 7.4
- Westport Kp 7.3
- Wheaton Kp 7.4
- White Marsh Kp 7.3
- White Oak Kp 7.4
- Williamsport Kp 7.2
- Wilson Park Kp 7.3
- Wilson-Conococheague Kp 7.2
- Woodlawn Kp 7.3
- Woodlawn Kp 7.4
- Woodmore Kp 7.4
- Woodsboro Kp 7.3
Y
- Yale Heights Kp 7.3
How far south each storm level reaches
NOAA’s space weather scales state the geomagnetic latitude each level of geomagnetic storm reaches, and the places its aurora has been seen from. The geographic latitudes are those lines converted with the geomagnetic dipole; the aurora sits low on the northern horizon there, and overhead far poleward of it.
| Storm | Geomagnetic | Central US | Eastern US | Northern Europe | NOAA says the aurora |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G1 MinorKp 5 | 60° | 52°N | 51°N | 61°N | commonly visible at high latitudes: northern Michigan and Maine |
| G2 ModerateKp 6 | 55° | 47°N | 46°N | 56°N | has been seen as low as New York and Idaho |
| G3 StrongKp 7 | 50° | 42°N | 41°N | 51°N | has been seen as low as Illinois and Oregon |
| G4 SevereKp 8 | 45° | 37°N | 36°N | 45°N | has been seen as low as Alabama and northern California |
| G5 ExtremeKp 9 | 40° | 32°N | 31°N | 40°N | has been seen as low as Florida and southern Texas |
Source: NOAA space weather scales, swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation. Below Kp 5 the oval contracts more slowly; this section runs the line from 66 degrees geomagnetic at Kp 0 to the scale’s 60 degrees at Kp 5.
Kp by 3-hour block
SWPC’s planetary K index forecast, three days ahead. Kp is a single number for the whole planet, from magnetometers around the world, on a scale of 0 to 9 in thirds.
| Block (UTC) | Kp | Level | Seen from | Central US |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.67 | Quiet | 65° geomag. | 57°N | |
| 1.67 | Quiet | 64° geomag. | 56°N | |
| 2.00 | Quiet | 64° geomag. | 55°N | |
| 1.67 | Quiet | 64° geomag. | 56°N | |
| 1.33 | Quiet | 64° geomag. | 56°N | |
| 0.67 | Quiet | 65° geomag. | 57°N | |
| 1.33 | Quiet | 64° geomag. | 56°N | |
| 1.33 | Quiet | 64° geomag. | 56°N | |
| 1.67 | Quiet | 64° geomag. | 56°N | |
| 1.67 | Quiet | 64° geomag. | 56°N | |
| 2.00 | Quiet | 64° geomag. | 55°N | |
| 1.67 | Quiet | 64° geomag. | 56°N | |
| 1.33 | Quiet | 64° geomag. | 56°N | |
| 0.67 | Quiet | 65° geomag. | 57°N | |
| 0.67 | Quiet | 65° geomag. | 57°N | |
| 1.67 | Quiet | 64° geomag. | 56°N | |
| 1.67 | Quiet | 64° geomag. | 56°N | |
| 1.67 | Quiet | 64° geomag. | 56°N |
The forecast is for the planet, not for your sky. A block at Kp 5 means the field is disturbed enough for the aurora to reach 60 degrees geomagnetic somewhere along the night side; whether you see it depends on being on the night side, on darkness, and on the clouds.
Other states with aurora pages
- Alaska
- Colorado
- Connecticut
- Delaware
- District of Columbia
- Idaho
- Illinois
- Indiana
- Iowa
- Kansas
- Kentucky
- Maine
- Massachusetts
- Michigan
- Minnesota
- Missouri
- Montana
- Nebraska
- Nevada
- New Hampshire
- New Jersey
- New York
- North Dakota
- Ohio
- Oregon
- Pennsylvania
- Rhode Island
- South Dakota
- Utah
- Vermont
- Virginia
- Washington
- West Virginia
- Wisconsin
- Wyoming
What this means
Each place is placed by its geomagnetic latitude, measured from the geomagnetic dipole pole, and compared with the reach NOAA states for each storm level on its space weather scales: G1 (Kp 5) about 60 degrees geomagnetic, G2 55, G3 50, G4 45, G5 (Kp 9) 40. Reading that backwards gives the Kp a place needs. Below Kp 5 the oval contracts more slowly and the line runs from 66 degrees at Kp 0 to 60 at Kp 5.
The forecasts have different horizons and the pages keep them apart: OVATION is the only thing that knows whether an aurora is out now, and it reaches 30 to 90 minutes ahead; the planetary Kp forecast runs three days; the 27-day outlook names likely active days and is not a forecast of any one night. None of them knows the clouds, which is why a town page reads its own forecast for those.
Sources
From NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center: the OVATION aurora forecast, the planetary K index forecast, the 3-day forecast, the 27-day outlook, its watches, warnings and alerts, and the real-time solar wind. Read Sep 20, 23:19 UTC.