Northern lights in District of Columbia tonight
The aurora reaches District of Columbia at about Kp 7.4 in the far north of the state and Kp 7.4 at its southern edge. SWPC's highest forecast Kp over the next three days is 4+, in the 21-00 UTC block on Wed, Sep 23. Not tonight. The forecast Kp of 2 is well below what it takes for the aurora to reach this far south.
From NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center, read Sep 21, 20:23 UTC.
The oval right now
NOAA’s OVATION model: the chance of aurora overhead 30 to 90 minutes from now, valid Sep 21, 21:30 UTC. Green is a low chance, red a high one.
Rain and snow mean cloud, and cloud is the last thing between a forecast aurora and the sky you are standing under. Each town page carries that town’s own sky cover forecast for the dark hours.
Open the live map with the aurora forecast
Aurora forecast from NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center. Original at SWPC
Alerts in force
Space weather watches, warnings and alerts from NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center.
-
WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted
Issued Sep 21, 18:32 UTC
Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.
- Induced Currents: Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
- Spacecraft: Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
A watch is issued days ahead, a warning hours ahead, and an alert when the threshold has been reached.
Tonight at Georgia Avenue / Walter Reed
The most poleward town in District of Columbia with a page, and the first place in the state an aurora reaches. Cloud cover is on each town’s own page.
No tonight
Not tonight. The forecast Kp of 2 is well below what it takes for the aurora to reach this far south.
- The aurora reaches this place at about Kp 7.4, which is 48 degrees geomagnetic latitude on NOAA's storm scales.
- SWPC forecasts a highest Kp of 2 (2.00) during tonight's dark hours: quiet.
- The moon is waxing gibbous, 80% lit, and up for part of the dark hours.
Towns best placed in District of Columbia
The 24 most poleward of the 54 towns in District of Columbia with a page. Each page gives tonight’s chance there, the darkness, the moon and that town’s own cloud forecast.
- Georgia Avenue / Walter ReedDistrict of Columbia · population 7,996 · 48.2° geomagneticKp 7.4
- Chevy ChaseDistrict of Columbia · population 9,545 · 48.1° geomagneticKp 7.4
- The Parks At Walter ReedDistrict of Columbia · population 8,252 · 48.1° geomagneticKp 7.4
- BrightwoodDistrict of Columbia · population 17,624 · 48.1° geomagneticKp 7.4
- Kennedy StreetDistrict of Columbia · population 15,251 · 48.1° geomagneticKp 7.4
- Colorado TriangleDistrict of Columbia · population 11,780 · 48.1° geomagneticKp 7.4
- Riggs ParkDistrict of Columbia · population 9,125 · 48.1° geomagneticKp 7.4
- TenleytownDistrict of Columbia · population 5,684 · 48.1° geomagneticKp 7.4
- PetworthDistrict of Columbia · population 18,983 · 48.1° geomagneticKp 7.4
- Central 14th Street / WMATA Northern Bus BarnDistrict of Columbia · population 11,147 · 48.1° geomagneticKp 7.4
- Van NessDistrict of Columbia · population 10,745 · 48.1° geomagneticKp 7.4
- Central 14th Street / Spring RoadDistrict of Columbia · population 25,899 · 48.1° geomagneticKp 7.4
- Cleveland ParkDistrict of Columbia · population 9,790 · 48.1° geomagneticKp 7.4
- BrooklandDistrict of Columbia · population 8,259 · 48.1° geomagneticKp 7.4
- Park ViewDistrict of Columbia · population 18,796 · 48.1° geomagneticKp 7.4
- WoodridgeDistrict of Columbia · population 6,671 · 48.1° geomagneticKp 7.4
- Mount PleasantDistrict of Columbia · population 35,842 · 48.1° geomagneticKp 7.4
- Woodley ParkDistrict of Columbia · population 9,856 · 48.1° geomagneticKp 7.4
- Pleasant PlainsDistrict of Columbia · population 21,174 · 48.1° geomagneticKp 7.4
- Columbia HeightsDistrict of Columbia · population 38,000 · 48.1° geomagneticKp 7.4
- Fort LincolnDistrict of Columbia · population 6,367 · 48.1° geomagneticKp 7.4
- Adams MorganDistrict of Columbia · population 15,830 · 48.1° geomagneticKp 7.4
- Brentwood VillageDistrict of Columbia · population 11,359 · 48.1° geomagneticKp 7.4
- Glover ParkDistrict of Columbia · population 8,124 · 48.1° geomagneticKp 7.4
Every town in District of Columbia with a page
54 towns at 48 degrees geomagnetic latitude or higher, which a strong storm reaches. The figure after each is the Kp it takes there.
A
- Adams Morgan Kp 7.4
- Anacostia Kp 7.4
B
- Barracks Row Kp 7.4
- Barry Farms Kp 7.4
- Benning Kp 7.4
- Benning Road Kp 7.4
- Bloomingdale Kp 7.4
- Brentwood Village Kp 7.4
- Brightwood Kp 7.4
- Brookland Kp 7.4
C
- Capitol Gateway Kp 7.4
- Capitol Hill Kp 7.4
- Capitol Riverfront Kp 7.4
- Central 14th Street / Spring Road Kp 7.4
- Central 14th Street / WMATA Northern Bus Barn Kp 7.4
- Chevy Chase Kp 7.4
- Cleveland Park Kp 7.4
- Colorado Triangle Kp 7.4
- Columbia Heights Kp 7.4
- Congress Heights Kp 7.4
D
- Deanwood Kp 7.4
- Downtown DC Kp 7.4
- Dupont Circle Kp 7.4
F
- Foggy Bottom Kp 7.4
- Fort Lincoln Kp 7.4
G
- Georgetown Kp 7.4
- Georgia Avenue / Walter Reed Kp 7.4
- Glover Park Kp 7.4
- Golden Triangle Kp 7.4
H
- H Street NE Kp 7.4
- Hillcrest Kp 7.4
I
- Ivy City Kp 7.4
K
- Kenilworth Kp 7.4
- Kennedy Street Kp 7.4
L
- Lincoln Heights Kp 7.4
M
- Mount Pleasant Kp 7.4
- Mount Vernon Triangle Kp 7.4
N
- NoMa Kp 7.4
- Northwest One Kp 7.4
P
- Park View Kp 7.4
- Pennsylvania Avenue SE Kp 7.4
- Petworth Kp 7.4
- Pleasant Plains Kp 7.4
R
- Riggs Park Kp 7.4
S
- Shaw Kp 7.4
- Southwest Waterfront Kp 7.4
T
- Tenleytown Kp 7.4
- The Parks At Walter Reed Kp 7.4
- The Wharf Kp 7.4
U
- Union Market Kp 7.4
V
- Van Ness Kp 7.4
W
- Washington Kp 7.4
- Woodley Park Kp 7.4
- Woodridge Kp 7.4
How far south each storm level reaches
NOAA’s space weather scales state the geomagnetic latitude each level of geomagnetic storm reaches, and the places its aurora has been seen from. The geographic latitudes are those lines converted with the geomagnetic dipole; the aurora sits low on the northern horizon there, and overhead far poleward of it.
| Storm | Geomagnetic | Central US | Eastern US | Northern Europe | NOAA says the aurora |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G1 MinorKp 5 | 60° | 52°N | 51°N | 61°N | commonly visible at high latitudes: northern Michigan and Maine |
| G2 ModerateKp 6 | 55° | 47°N | 46°N | 56°N | has been seen as low as New York and Idaho |
| G3 StrongKp 7 | 50° | 42°N | 41°N | 51°N | has been seen as low as Illinois and Oregon |
| G4 SevereKp 8 | 45° | 37°N | 36°N | 45°N | has been seen as low as Alabama and northern California |
| G5 ExtremeKp 9 | 40° | 32°N | 31°N | 40°N | has been seen as low as Florida and southern Texas |
Source: NOAA space weather scales, swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation. Below Kp 5 the oval contracts more slowly; this section runs the line from 66 degrees geomagnetic at Kp 0 to the scale’s 60 degrees at Kp 5.
Kp by 3-hour block
SWPC’s planetary K index forecast, three days ahead. Kp is a single number for the whole planet, from magnetometers around the world, on a scale of 0 to 9 in thirds.
| Block (UTC) | Kp | Level | Seen from | Central US |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.67 | Quiet | 64° geomag. | 56°N | |
| 2.00 | Quiet | 64° geomag. | 55°N | |
| 1.00 | Quiet | 65° geomag. | 57°N | |
| 1.00 | Quiet | 65° geomag. | 57°N | |
| 1.67 | Quiet | 64° geomag. | 56°N | |
| 2.00 | Quiet | 64° geomag. | 55°N | |
| 2.00 | Quiet | 64° geomag. | 55°N | |
| 0.67 | Quiet | 65° geomag. | 57°N | |
| 1.67 | Quiet | 64° geomag. | 56°N | |
| 1.67 | Quiet | 64° geomag. | 56°N | |
| 1.67 | Quiet | 64° geomag. | 56°N | |
| 2.00 | Quiet | 64° geomag. | 55°N | |
| 2.00 | Quiet | 64° geomag. | 55°N | |
| 2.00 | Quiet | 64° geomag. | 55°N | |
| 2.33 | Quiet | 63° geomag. | 55°N | |
| 2.67 | Quiet | 63° geomag. | 54°N | |
| 3.33 | Unsettled | 62° geomag. | 54°N | |
| 4.33 | Active | 61° geomag. | 52°N | |
| 4.33 | Active | 61° geomag. | 52°N |
The forecast is for the planet, not for your sky. A block at Kp 5 means the field is disturbed enough for the aurora to reach 60 degrees geomagnetic somewhere along the night side; whether you see it depends on being on the night side, on darkness, and on the clouds.
Other states with aurora pages
What this means
Each place is placed by its geomagnetic latitude, measured from the geomagnetic dipole pole, and compared with the reach NOAA states for each storm level on its space weather scales: G1 (Kp 5) about 60 degrees geomagnetic, G2 55, G3 50, G4 45, G5 (Kp 9) 40. Reading that backwards gives the Kp a place needs. Below Kp 5 the oval contracts more slowly and the line runs from 66 degrees at Kp 0 to 60 at Kp 5.
The forecasts have different horizons and the pages keep them apart: OVATION is the only thing that knows whether an aurora is out now, and it reaches 30 to 90 minutes ahead; the planetary Kp forecast runs three days; the 27-day outlook names likely active days and is not a forecast of any one night. None of them knows the clouds, which is why a town page reads its own forecast for those.
Sources
From NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center: the OVATION aurora forecast, the planetary K index forecast, the 3-day forecast, the 27-day outlook, its watches, warnings and alerts, and the real-time solar wind. Read Sep 21, 20:23 UTC.