Northern lights in Rhode Island tonight
The aurora reaches Rhode Island at about Kp 6.8 in the far north of the state and Kp 6.9 at its southern edge. SWPC's highest forecast Kp over the next three days is 2, in the 03-06 UTC block on Mon, Sep 21. Not tonight. The forecast Kp of 2 is well below what it takes for the aurora to reach this far south.
From NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center, read Sep 20, 10:57 UTC.
Radar
Reflectivity now over Rhode Island. Open it to see the aurora forecast on the map.
Radar mosaic and map layers from NOAA MRMS. Boundaries from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet.
Rain and snow mean cloud, and cloud is the last thing between a forecast aurora and the sky you are standing under. Each town page carries that town’s own sky cover forecast for the dark hours.
Tonight at Woonsocket
The most poleward town in Rhode Island with a page, and the first place in the state an aurora reaches. Cloud cover is on each town’s own page.
No tonight
Not tonight. The forecast Kp of 2 is well below what it takes for the aurora to reach this far south.
- The aurora reaches this place at about Kp 6.8, which is 51 degrees geomagnetic latitude on NOAA's storm scales.
- SWPC forecasts a highest Kp of 2 (2.00) during tonight's dark hours: quiet.
- The moon is waxing gibbous, 70% lit, and up for part of the dark hours.
Towns best placed in Rhode Island
The 24 most poleward of the 52 towns in Rhode Island with a page. Each page gives tonight’s chance there, the darkness, the moon and that town’s own cloud forecast.
- WoonsocketProvidence County · population 41,475 · 51.2° geomagneticKp 6.8
- Cumberland HillProvidence County · population 7,934 · 51.2° geomagneticKp 6.8
- North SmithfieldProvidence County · population 11,212 · 51.2° geomagneticKp 6.8
- CumberlandProvidence County · population 34,843 · 51.2° geomagneticKp 6.8
- HarrisvilleProvidence County · population 1,605 · 51.2° geomagneticKp 6.8
- PascoagProvidence County · population 4,577 · 51.2° geomagneticKp 6.8
- SmithfieldProvidence County · population 21,872 · 51.1° geomagneticKp 6.8
- LincolnProvidence County · population 21,670 · 51.1° geomagneticKp 6.8
- ChepachetProvidence County · population 1,675 · 51.1° geomagneticKp 6.8
- Valley FallsProvidence County · population 11,547 · 51.1° geomagneticKp 6.8
- Central FallsProvidence County · population 19,303 · 51.1° geomagneticKp 6.8
- HarmonyProvidence County · population 985 · 51.1° geomagneticKp 6.8
- PawtucketProvidence County · population 71,591 · 51.1° geomagneticKp 6.8
- GreenvilleProvidence County · population 8,658 · 51.1° geomagneticKp 6.8
- FosterProvidence County · population 4,598 · 51.1° geomagneticKp 6.8
- North ProvidenceProvidence County · population 33,835 · 51.0° geomagneticKp 6.8
- North ScituateProvidence County · population 11,171 · 51.0° geomagneticKp 6.8
- ProvidenceProvidence County · population 190,934 · 51.0° geomagneticKp 6.8
- JohnstonProvidence County · population 29,247 · 51.0° geomagneticKp 6.8
- East ProvidenceProvidence County · population 47,408 · 51.0° geomagneticKp 6.8
- CranstonProvidence County · population 81,073 · 51.0° geomagneticKp 6.8
- BarringtonBristol County · population 16,669 · 50.9° geomagneticKp 6.8
- WarrenBristol County · population 11,280 · 50.9° geomagneticKp 6.8
- CoventryKent County · population 35,525 · 50.9° geomagneticKp 6.8
Every town in Rhode Island with a page
52 towns at 48 degrees geomagnetic latitude or higher, which a strong storm reaches. The figure after each is the Kp it takes there.
A
- Ashaway Kp 6.9
B
- Barrington Kp 6.8
- Bradford Kp 6.9
- Bristol Kp 6.8
C
- Carolina Kp 6.9
- Central Falls Kp 6.8
- Charlestown Kp 6.9
- Chepachet Kp 6.8
- Coventry Kp 6.8
- Cranston Kp 6.8
- Cumberland Kp 6.8
- Cumberland Hill Kp 6.8
E
- East Greenwich Kp 6.8
- East Providence Kp 6.8
- Exeter Kp 6.8
F
- Foster Kp 6.8
G
- Greene Kp 6.8
- Greenville Kp 6.8
H
- Harmony Kp 6.8
- Harrisville Kp 6.8
- Hope Valley Kp 6.9
- Hopkinton Kp 6.9
J
K
- Kingston Kp 6.9
L
- Lincoln Kp 6.8
M
- Melville Kp 6.8
- Middletown Kp 6.9
N
- Narragansett Kp 6.9
- Narragansett Pier Kp 6.9
- New Shoreham Kp 6.9
- Newport Kp 6.9
- Newport East Kp 6.9
- North Kingstown Kp 6.9
- North Providence Kp 6.8
- North Scituate Kp 6.8
- North Smithfield Kp 6.8
P
- Pascoag Kp 6.8
- Pawtucket Kp 6.8
- Portsmouth Kp 6.8
- Providence Kp 6.8
S
- Smithfield Kp 6.8
- South Kingstown Kp 6.9
T
- Tiverton Kp 6.8
V
- Valley Falls Kp 6.8
W
- Wakefield-Peacedale Kp 6.9
- Warren Kp 6.8
- Warwick Kp 6.8
- West Greenwich Kp 6.8
- West Warwick Kp 6.8
- Westerly Kp 6.9
- Woonsocket Kp 6.8
How far south each storm level reaches
NOAA’s space weather scales state the geomagnetic latitude each level of geomagnetic storm reaches, and the places its aurora has been seen from. The geographic latitudes are those lines converted with the geomagnetic dipole; the aurora sits low on the northern horizon there, and overhead far poleward of it.
| Storm | Geomagnetic | Central US | Eastern US | Northern Europe | NOAA says the aurora |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G1 MinorKp 5 | 60° | 52°N | 51°N | 61°N | commonly visible at high latitudes: northern Michigan and Maine |
| G2 ModerateKp 6 | 55° | 47°N | 46°N | 56°N | has been seen as low as New York and Idaho |
| G3 StrongKp 7 | 50° | 42°N | 41°N | 51°N | has been seen as low as Illinois and Oregon |
| G4 SevereKp 8 | 45° | 37°N | 36°N | 45°N | has been seen as low as Alabama and northern California |
| G5 ExtremeKp 9 | 40° | 32°N | 31°N | 40°N | has been seen as low as Florida and southern Texas |
Source: NOAA space weather scales, swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation. Below Kp 5 the oval contracts more slowly; this section runs the line from 66 degrees geomagnetic at Kp 0 to the scale’s 60 degrees at Kp 5.
Kp by 3-hour block
SWPC’s planetary K index forecast, three days ahead. Kp is a single number for the whole planet, from magnetometers around the world, on a scale of 0 to 9 in thirds.
| Block (UTC) | Kp | Level | Seen from | Central US |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.00 | Quiet | 65° geomag. | 57°N | |
| 1.00 | Quiet | 65° geomag. | 57°N | |
| 1.00 | Quiet | 65° geomag. | 57°N | |
| 1.33 | Quiet | 64° geomag. | 56°N | |
| 1.33 | Quiet | 64° geomag. | 56°N | |
| 1.67 | Quiet | 64° geomag. | 56°N | |
| 2.00 | Quiet | 64° geomag. | 55°N | |
| 1.67 | Quiet | 64° geomag. | 56°N | |
| 1.33 | Quiet | 64° geomag. | 56°N | |
| 0.67 | Quiet | 65° geomag. | 57°N | |
| 1.33 | Quiet | 64° geomag. | 56°N | |
| 1.33 | Quiet | 64° geomag. | 56°N | |
| 1.67 | Quiet | 64° geomag. | 56°N | |
| 1.67 | Quiet | 64° geomag. | 56°N | |
| 1.33 | Quiet | 64° geomag. | 56°N | |
| 1.33 | Quiet | 64° geomag. | 56°N | |
| 1.33 | Quiet | 64° geomag. | 56°N | |
| 1.33 | Quiet | 64° geomag. | 56°N | |
| 1.33 | Quiet | 64° geomag. | 56°N | |
| 1.67 | Quiet | 64° geomag. | 56°N | |
| 1.67 | Quiet | 64° geomag. | 56°N | |
| 1.67 | Quiet | 64° geomag. | 56°N |
The forecast is for the planet, not for your sky. A block at Kp 5 means the field is disturbed enough for the aurora to reach 60 degrees geomagnetic somewhere along the night side; whether you see it depends on being on the night side, on darkness, and on the clouds.
Other states with aurora pages
What this means
Each place is placed by its geomagnetic latitude, measured from the geomagnetic dipole pole, and compared with the reach NOAA states for each storm level on its space weather scales: G1 (Kp 5) about 60 degrees geomagnetic, G2 55, G3 50, G4 45, G5 (Kp 9) 40. Reading that backwards gives the Kp a place needs. Below Kp 5 the oval contracts more slowly and the line runs from 66 degrees at Kp 0 to 60 at Kp 5.
The forecasts have different horizons and the pages keep them apart: OVATION is the only thing that knows whether an aurora is out now, and it reaches 30 to 90 minutes ahead; the planetary Kp forecast runs three days; the 27-day outlook names likely active days and is not a forecast of any one night. None of them knows the clouds, which is why a town page reads its own forecast for those.
Sources
From NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center: the OVATION aurora forecast, the planetary K index forecast, the 3-day forecast, the 27-day outlook, its watches, warnings and alerts, and the real-time solar wind. Read Sep 20, 10:57 UTC.