Northern lights in North Dakota tonight
The aurora reaches North Dakota at about Kp 5.6 in the far north of the state and Kp 6.3 at its southern edge. SWPC's highest forecast Kp over the next three days is 2, in the 03-06 UTC block on Mon, Sep 21. Not tonight. The forecast Kp of 2 is well below what it takes for the aurora to reach this far south.
From NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center, read Sep 20, 14:13 UTC.
Radar
Reflectivity now over North Dakota. Open it to see the aurora forecast on the map.
Radar mosaic and map layers from NOAA MRMS. Boundaries from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet.
Rain and snow mean cloud, and cloud is the last thing between a forecast aurora and the sky you are standing under. Each town page carries that town’s own sky cover forecast for the dark hours.
Tonight at Pembina
The most poleward town in North Dakota with a page, and the first place in the state an aurora reaches. Cloud cover is on each town’s own page.
No tonight
Not tonight. The forecast Kp of 2 is well below what it takes for the aurora to reach this far south.
- The aurora reaches this place at about Kp 5.6, which is 57 degrees geomagnetic latitude on NOAA's storm scales.
- SWPC forecasts a highest Kp of 2 (2.00) during tonight's dark hours: quiet.
- The moon is waxing gibbous, 71% lit, and up for part of the dark hours.
Towns best placed in North Dakota
The 24 most poleward of the 118 towns in North Dakota with a page. Each page gives tonight’s chance there, the darkness, the moon and that town’s own cloud forecast.
- PembinaPembina County · population 565 · 57.2° geomagneticKp 5.6
- WalhallaPembina County · population 951 · 57.1° geomagneticKp 5.6
- CavalierPembina County · population 1,244 · 56.9° geomagneticKp 5.6
- LangdonCavalier County · population 1,787 · 56.9° geomagneticKp 5.6
- RollaRolette County · population 1,325 · 56.8° geomagneticKp 5.6
- Green AcresRolette County · population 575 · 56.8° geomagneticKp 5.6
- East DunseithRolette County · population 500 · 56.8° geomagneticKp 5.6
- BelcourtRolette County · population 2,078 · 56.8° geomagneticKp 5.6
- DraytonPembina County · population 785 · 56.8° geomagneticKp 5.6
- Shell ValleyRolette County · population 1,197 · 56.8° geomagneticKp 5.6
- DunseithRolette County · population 797 · 56.8° geomagneticKp 5.6
- BottineauBottineau County · population 2,343 · 56.7° geomagneticKp 5.7
- RoletteRolette County · population 612 · 56.6° geomagneticKp 5.7
- GraftonWalsh County · population 4,243 · 56.6° geomagneticKp 5.7
- MohallRenville County · population 808 · 56.6° geomagneticKp 5.7
- CrosbyDivide County · population 1,408 · 56.6° geomagneticKp 5.7
- BowbellsBurke County · population 377 · 56.6° geomagneticKp 5.7
- Park RiverWalsh County · population 1,375 · 56.5° geomagneticKp 5.7
- CandoTowner County · population 1,122 · 56.5° geomagneticKp 5.7
- MintoWalsh County · population 610 · 56.5° geomagneticKp 5.7
- KenmareWard County · population 1,083 · 56.4° geomagneticKp 5.7
- RugbyPierce County · population 2,846 · 56.3° geomagneticKp 5.7
- TownerMcHenry County · population 564 · 56.3° geomagneticKp 5.7
- Minot Air Force BaseWard County · population 5,521 · 56.3° geomagneticKp 5.7
Every town in North Dakota with a page
118 towns at 48 degrees geomagnetic latitude or higher, which a strong storm reaches. The figure after each is the Kp it takes there.
A
B
- Baldwin Kp 6
- Beach Kp 6.1
- Belcourt Kp 5.6
- Belfield Kp 6.1
- Berthold Kp 5.8
- Beulah Kp 6
- Bismarck Kp 6.1
- Bottineau Kp 5.7
- Bowbells Kp 5.7
- Bowman Kp 6.2
- Burlington Kp 5.8
C
- Cando Kp 5.7
- Cannon Ball Kp 6.1
- Carrington Kp 5.9
- Carson Kp 6.1
- Casselton Kp 6
- Cavalier Kp 5.6
- Center Kp 6
- Cooperstown Kp 5.9
- Crosby Kp 5.7
D
- Devils Lake Kp 5.8
- Dickinson Kp 6.1
- Drayton Kp 5.6
- Dunseith Kp 5.6
E
- East Dunseith Kp 5.6
- Edgeley Kp 6.1
- Elgin Kp 6.2
- Ellendale Kp 6.2
- Enderlin Kp 6
F
- Fargo Kp 6
- Fessenden Kp 5.9
- Finley Kp 5.9
- Forman Kp 6.1
- Fort Totten Kp 5.8
- Fort Yates Kp 6.2
- Four Bears Village Kp 5.9
G
- Garrison Kp 5.9
- Glen Ullin Kp 6.1
- Grafton Kp 5.7
- Grand Forks Kp 5.8
- Grand Forks Air Force Base Kp 5.8
- Green Acres Kp 5.6
- Gwinner Kp 6.1
H
- Hankinson Kp 6.1
- Harvey Kp 5.9
- Harwood Kp 6
- Hatton Kp 5.8
- Hazen Kp 6
- Hebron Kp 6.1
- Hettinger Kp 6.3
- Hillsboro Kp 5.9
- Horace Kp 6
J
- Jamestown Kp 6
K
L
- Lakota Kp 5.8
- LaMoure Kp 6.1
- Langdon Kp 5.6
- Larimore Kp 5.8
- Lidgerwood Kp 6.1
- Lincoln Kp 6.1
- Linton Kp 6.2
- Lisbon Kp 6.1
M
- Mandan Kp 6.1
- Mandaree Kp 5.9
- Manning Kp 6
- Mapleton Kp 6
- Mayville Kp 5.9
- McClusky Kp 5.9
- Medora Kp 6.1
- Milnor Kp 6.1
- Minnewaukan Kp 5.8
- Minot Kp 5.8
- Minot Air Force Base Kp 5.7
- Minto Kp 5.7
- Mohall Kp 5.7
- Mott Kp 6.2
N
- Napoleon Kp 6.1
- New England Kp 6.1
- New Rockford Kp 5.9
- New Salem Kp 6.1
- New Town Kp 5.9
- Northwood Kp 5.8
O
- Oakes Kp 6.1
P
- Park River Kp 5.7
- Parshall Kp 5.9
- Pembina Kp 5.6
- Portland Kp 5.9
R
- Ray Kp 5.8
- Reiles Acres Kp 6
- Richardton Kp 6.1
- Rolette Kp 5.7
- Rolla Kp 5.6
- Rugby Kp 5.7
S
T
- Thompson Kp 5.8
- Tioga Kp 5.8
- Towner Kp 5.7
- Turtle Lake Kp 5.9
U
- Underwood Kp 5.9
V
- Valley City Kp 6
- Velva Kp 5.8
W
- Wahpeton Kp 6.1
- Walhalla Kp 5.6
- Washburn Kp 6
- Watford City Kp 5.9
- West Fargo Kp 6
- Williston Kp 5.8
- Wilton Kp 6
- Wishek Kp 6.1
How far south each storm level reaches
NOAA’s space weather scales state the geomagnetic latitude each level of geomagnetic storm reaches, and the places its aurora has been seen from. The geographic latitudes are those lines converted with the geomagnetic dipole; the aurora sits low on the northern horizon there, and overhead far poleward of it.
| Storm | Geomagnetic | Central US | Eastern US | Northern Europe | NOAA says the aurora |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G1 MinorKp 5 | 60° | 52°N | 51°N | 61°N | commonly visible at high latitudes: northern Michigan and Maine |
| G2 ModerateKp 6 | 55° | 47°N | 46°N | 56°N | has been seen as low as New York and Idaho |
| G3 StrongKp 7 | 50° | 42°N | 41°N | 51°N | has been seen as low as Illinois and Oregon |
| G4 SevereKp 8 | 45° | 37°N | 36°N | 45°N | has been seen as low as Alabama and northern California |
| G5 ExtremeKp 9 | 40° | 32°N | 31°N | 40°N | has been seen as low as Florida and southern Texas |
Source: NOAA space weather scales, swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation. Below Kp 5 the oval contracts more slowly; this section runs the line from 66 degrees geomagnetic at Kp 0 to the scale’s 60 degrees at Kp 5.
Kp by 3-hour block
SWPC’s planetary K index forecast, three days ahead. Kp is a single number for the whole planet, from magnetometers around the world, on a scale of 0 to 9 in thirds.
| Block (UTC) | Kp | Level | Seen from | Central US |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.00 | Quiet | 65° geomag. | 57°N | |
| 1.00 | Quiet | 65° geomag. | 57°N | |
| 1.33 | Quiet | 64° geomag. | 56°N | |
| 1.33 | Quiet | 64° geomag. | 56°N | |
| 1.67 | Quiet | 64° geomag. | 56°N | |
| 2.00 | Quiet | 64° geomag. | 55°N | |
| 1.67 | Quiet | 64° geomag. | 56°N | |
| 1.33 | Quiet | 64° geomag. | 56°N | |
| 0.67 | Quiet | 65° geomag. | 57°N | |
| 1.33 | Quiet | 64° geomag. | 56°N | |
| 1.33 | Quiet | 64° geomag. | 56°N | |
| 1.67 | Quiet | 64° geomag. | 56°N | |
| 1.67 | Quiet | 64° geomag. | 56°N | |
| 1.33 | Quiet | 64° geomag. | 56°N | |
| 1.33 | Quiet | 64° geomag. | 56°N | |
| 1.33 | Quiet | 64° geomag. | 56°N | |
| 1.33 | Quiet | 64° geomag. | 56°N | |
| 1.33 | Quiet | 64° geomag. | 56°N | |
| 1.67 | Quiet | 64° geomag. | 56°N | |
| 1.67 | Quiet | 64° geomag. | 56°N | |
| 1.67 | Quiet | 64° geomag. | 56°N |
The forecast is for the planet, not for your sky. A block at Kp 5 means the field is disturbed enough for the aurora to reach 60 degrees geomagnetic somewhere along the night side; whether you see it depends on being on the night side, on darkness, and on the clouds.
Other states with aurora pages
What this means
Each place is placed by its geomagnetic latitude, measured from the geomagnetic dipole pole, and compared with the reach NOAA states for each storm level on its space weather scales: G1 (Kp 5) about 60 degrees geomagnetic, G2 55, G3 50, G4 45, G5 (Kp 9) 40. Reading that backwards gives the Kp a place needs. Below Kp 5 the oval contracts more slowly and the line runs from 66 degrees at Kp 0 to 60 at Kp 5.
The forecasts have different horizons and the pages keep them apart: OVATION is the only thing that knows whether an aurora is out now, and it reaches 30 to 90 minutes ahead; the planetary Kp forecast runs three days; the 27-day outlook names likely active days and is not a forecast of any one night. None of them knows the clouds, which is why a town page reads its own forecast for those.
Sources
From NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center: the OVATION aurora forecast, the planetary K index forecast, the 3-day forecast, the 27-day outlook, its watches, warnings and alerts, and the real-time solar wind. Read Sep 20, 14:13 UTC.