Alert archive / Virginia / Stafford County
Weather alerts in Stafford County, Virginia, 2018
137 weather alerts in 2018, from the National Weather Service and the Storm Prediction Center. An alert counts here when it covered this county.
Stafford County and its neighbors
Each county as a circle sized by its count in 2018. Tap one for its archive.
- Alerts
- 137
- Warnings
- 41
- Watches
- 34
- Advisories
- 29
- Busiest month
- June24 alerts
- Busiest day
- August 12, 20187 alerts
Over time
By month
Warning verification
How often warnings here had a storm report inside them, and how much warning the reports had.
0 of 4 tornado warnings covering Stafford County in 2018 had a tornado report inside them.
Stafford County, 2018
| Warnings | With a report | False alarm ratio | Reports | Inside a warning | Mean lead time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tornado warnings | 4 | 0 | 100% | 0 | ||
| Severe thunderstorm warnings | 10 | 7 | 30% | 3 | 67% | 37 min |
| Flash flood warnings | 1 | 1 | 0% | 1 | 100% | 67 min |
Each office's whole area, 2018
| Warnings | With a report | False alarm ratio | Reports | Inside a warning | Mean lead time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NWS Baltimore/Washington: tornado warnings | 19 | 1 | 95% | 4 | 25% | 1 min |
| NWS Baltimore/Washington: severe thunderstorm warnings | 312 | 208 | 33% | 690 | 70% | 20 min |
| NWS Baltimore/Washington: flash flood warnings | 87 | 38 | 56% | 129 | 89% | 103 min |
An office's figures cover every county it serves, including across state lines.
Verified by the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow, which matches each storm-based warning with the local storm reports inside its polygon while it was in force, within 15 km of its edge: a tornado warning counts as verified on a tornado report, a severe thunderstorm warning on hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more, or wind damage, a flash flood warning on a flash flood report. The false alarm ratio is the share of warnings with no such report; "inside a warning" is the probability of detection, the share of reports that fell inside one; lead time runs from the warning's issue to each report inside it, counting zero for a report that came first. A warning with no report is not proof nothing happened: reports come from spotters, the public and damage surveys, and are thin where few people live.
The alerts
Every alert, in the order issued. Times are local, Eastern Time. Each opens its own page with the text, the map, the radar and the sounding.
| Issued | Product | Office | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 3:34 AM EST | Winter Weather Advisory | LWX | 35 hr |
| Jan 4, 3:36 AM EST | Wind Chill Advisory | LWX | 32 hr |
| Jan 5, 3:45 AM EST | Wind Chill Advisory | LWX | 54 hr |
| Jan 9, 4:32 AM EST | Dense Fog Advisory | LWX | 4 hr |
| Jan 15, 1:47 PM EST | Winter Weather Advisory | LWX | 46 hr |
| Feb 3, 3:00 PM EST | Winter Weather Advisory | LWX | 28 hr |
| Feb 6, 4:02 AM EST | Winter Weather Advisory | LWX | 38 hr |
| Feb 10, 3:38 AM EST | Flood Watch | LWX | 36 hr |
| Feb 11, 7:53 AM EST | Areal Flood Warning | LWX | 12 hr |
| Feb 25, 5:46 AM EST | Dense Fog Advisory | LWX | 5 hr |
| Feb 25, 10:46 PM EST | Dense Fog Advisory | LWX | 6 hr |
| Feb 28, 2:52 PM EST | High Wind Watch | LWX | 21 hr |
| Mar 1, 4:06 AM EST | High Wind Warning | LWX | 45 hr |
| Mar 1, 10:37 PM EST | Special Weather Statement | LWX | 7 hr |
| Mar 2, 7:57 PM EST | Wind Advisory | LWX | 10 hr |
| Mar 20, 10:00 AM EDT | Special Weather Statement | LWX | 15 min |
| Mar 20, 12:47 PM EDT | Winter Storm Warning | LWX | 31 hr |
| Apr 3, 5:33 PM EDT | Wind Advisory | LWX | 25 hr |
| Apr 11, 1:34 PM EDT | Fire Weather Watch | LWX | 14 hr |
| Apr 12, 3:42 AM EDT | Red Flag Warning | LWX | 16 hr |
| Apr 17, 1:24 PM EDT | Freeze Warning | LWX | 19 hr |
| Apr 19, 4:27 AM EDT | Freeze Watch | LWX | 10 hr |
| Apr 19, 2:22 PM EDT | Freeze Warning | LWX | 18 hr |
| Apr 28, 5:21 AM EDT | Dense Fog Advisory | LWX | 5 hr |
| Apr 29, 3:15 PM EDT | Frost Advisory | LWX | 17 hr |
| Apr 29, 3:18 PM EDT | Fire Weather Watch | LWX | 12 hr |
| May 10, 12:36 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 114 min |
| May 10, 1:14 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | 8 hr |
| May 10, 4:53 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 67 min |
| May 10, 6:24 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | 53 min |
| May 13, 4:28 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | 7 hr |
| May 13, 6:48 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | 15 min |
| May 13, 7:00 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 60 min |
| May 14, 12:29 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | 9 hr |
| May 14, 3:26 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 2 hr |
| May 14, 6:11 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | 79 min |
| May 14, 7:22 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 53 min |
| May 15, 5:43 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 92 min |
| May 15, 8:41 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 94 min |
| May 16, 1:40 PM EDT | Flood Watch | LWX | 3 days |
| May 17, 3:32 PM EDT | River Flood Warning | LWX | 18 hr |
| May 19, 1:37 AM EDT | Areal Flood Warning | LWX | 15 hr |
| May 22, 1:52 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 113 min |
| May 22, 2:33 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | 6 hr |
| May 22, 4:50 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 115 min |
| May 27, 4:25 AM EDT | Flash Flood Watch | LWX | 16 hr |
| May 27, 1:29 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 3 hr |
| Jun 2, 1:05 AM EDT | Areal Flood Warning | LWX | 71 min |
| Jun 2, 3:13 AM EDT | Flash Flood Watch | LWX | 25 hr |
| Jun 2, 3:28 AM EDT | River Flood Watch | LWX | 37 hr |
| Jun 2, 3:22 PM EDT | Areal Flood Warning | LWX | 10 hr |
| Jun 3, 4:11 AM EDT | Flood Watch | LWX | 14 hr |
| Jun 3, 12:00 PM EDT | Areal Flood Warning | LWX | 15 hr |
| Jun 3, 1:06 PM EDT | River Flood Warning | LWX | 39 hr |
| Jun 3, 3:59 PM EDT | River Flood Warning | LWX | 11 hr |
| Jun 9, 1:34 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 2 hr |
| Jun 10, 3:47 AM EDT | Flash Flood Watch | LWX | 24 hr |
| Jun 10, 3:23 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 2 hr |
| Jun 18, 9:42 AM EDT | Heat Advisory | LWX | 10 hr |
| Jun 19, 12:04 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 116 min |
| Jun 20, 2:19 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 116 min |
| Jun 21, 4:11 AM EDT | Flash Flood Watch | LWX | 29 hr |
| Jun 22, 5:47 AM EDT | Areal Flood Warning | LWX | 28 hr |
| Jun 22, 8:29 AM EDT | River Flood Warning | LWX | 44 hr |
| Jun 22, 8:29 AM EDT | River Flood Warning | LWX | 59 hr |
| Jun 22, 11:30 AM EDT | Flash Flood Watch | LWX | 14 hr |
| Jun 23, 5:40 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 2 hr |
| Jun 23, 5:42 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | 48 min |
| Jun 24, 2:04 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 116 min |
| Jun 27, 7:37 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 3 hr |
| Jun 30, 2:14 PM EDT | Heat Advisory | LWX | 27 hr |
| Jul 1, 2:10 PM EDT | Heat Advisory | LWX | 30 hr |
| Jul 2, 1:40 PM EDT | Heat Advisory | LWX | 30 hr |
| Jul 21, 5:05 AM EDT | Flash Flood Watch | LWX | 21 hr |
| Jul 21, 2:48 PM EDT | Areal Flood Warning | LWX | 6 hr |
| Jul 22, 11:35 AM EDT | Flash Flood Watch | LWX | 17 hr |
| Jul 23, 2:57 AM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 3 hr |
| Jul 23, 4:59 AM EDT | Flash Flood Watch | LWX | 68 hr |
| Jul 23, 2:40 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 3 hr |
| Jul 25, 7:42 PM EDT | Areal Flood Warning | LWX | 6 hr |
| Jul 27, 4:06 AM EDT | Flash Flood Watch | LWX | 17 hr |
| Jul 27, 1:24 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | 41 min |
| Jul 27, 1:28 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 62 min |
| Jul 27, 1:52 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | 7 hr |
| Jul 27, 4:50 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 55 min |
| Jul 27, 7:06 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 54 min |
| Jul 31, 11:14 PM EDT | Flash Flood Watch | LWX | 72 hr |
| Aug 2, 11:46 AM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 119 min |
| Aug 2, 12:36 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | LWX | 24 min |
| Aug 2, 12:56 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | LWX | 13 min |
| Aug 12, 12:23 PM EDT | Flash Flood Watch | LWX | 9 hr |
| Aug 12, 2:18 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 2 hr |
| Aug 12, 3:03 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | 72 min |
| Aug 12, 3:45 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | 45 min |
| Aug 12, 3:54 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | 51 min |
| Aug 12, 4:14 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | 46 min |
| Aug 12, 4:33 PM EDT | Areal Flood Warning | LWX | 4 hr |
| Aug 12, 8:29 PM EDT | Areal Flood Warning | LWX | 4 hr |
| Aug 13, 12:09 AM EDT | Areal Flood Warning | LWX | 6 hr |
| Aug 13, 1:57 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 3 hr |
| Aug 17, 3:10 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 3 hr |
| Aug 21, 7:06 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 84 min |
| Aug 28, 3:52 AM EDT | Heat Advisory | LWX | 16 hr |
| Aug 29, 3:49 AM EDT | Heat Advisory | LWX | 16 hr |
| Sep 4, 2:17 AM EDT | Heat Advisory | LWX | 17 hr |
| Sep 11, 5:24 AM EDT | Dense Fog Advisory | LWX | 4 hr |
| Sep 16, 3:11 PM EDT | Flash Flood Watch | LWX | 52 hr |
| Sep 17, 3:11 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | LWX | 34 min |
| Sep 17, 3:38 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | LWX | 22 min |
| Sep 17, 3:42 PM EDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | 4 hr |
| Sep 17, 7:09 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 2 hr |
| Sep 26, 3:40 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 3 hr |
| Sep 26, 5:02 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | 4 hr |
| Sep 27, 2:39 AM EDT | Flood Watch | LWX | 27 hr |
| Oct 8, 2:58 AM EDT | Dense Fog Advisory | LWX | 7 hr |
| Oct 10, 3:42 PM EDT | Flash Flood Watch | LWX | 31 hr |
| Oct 11, 3:12 AM EDT | Wind Advisory | LWX | 29 hr |
| Oct 11, 3:39 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | 34 min |
| Oct 11, 6:23 PM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | LWX | 3 hr |
| Oct 11, 9:14 PM EDT | Areal Flood Warning | LWX | 5 hr |
| Oct 18, 2:57 PM EDT | Frost Advisory | LWX | 18 hr |
| Oct 21, 4:05 AM EDT | Frost Advisory | LWX | 30 hr |
| Oct 21, 4:05 AM EDT | Freeze Warning | LWX | 30 hr |
| Nov 2, 6:55 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 95 min |
| Nov 14, 3:54 PM EST | Winter Weather Advisory | LWX | 36 hr |
| Nov 15, 12:28 AM EST | Flood Watch | LWX | 14 hr |
| Nov 23, 3:32 AM EST | Winter Weather Advisory | LWX | 36 hr |
| Dec 8, 6:02 PM EST | Winter Storm Warning | LWX | 30 hr |
| Dec 8, 6:02 PM EST | Winter Weather Advisory | LWX | 30 hr |
| Dec 13, 2:04 PM EST | Flood Watch | LWX | 63 hr |
| Dec 15, 3:21 PM EST | River Flood Warning | LWX | 3 hr |
| Dec 15, 9:06 PM EST | River Flood Warning | LWX | 37 hr |
| Dec 19, 3:48 AM EST | Flood Watch | LWX | 59 hr |
| Dec 20, 5:29 PM EST | River Flood Watch | LWX | 24 hr |
| Dec 21, 2:33 PM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 57 min |
| Dec 27, 3:41 AM EST | Flood Watch | LWX | 39 hr |
| Dec 28, 7:45 PM EST | Dense Fog Advisory | LWX | 11 hr |
By product
Every kind of product issued here, grouped by hazard. Each opens the same place narrowed to that product.
The busiest days
Days with the most alerts issued, by UTC date.
Nearby
Alerts in force nowTornadoes on recordForecastThe radar archive20172019
Sources
National Weather Service watches, warnings, advisories and statements from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's VTEC archive, which reconstructs tornado, severe thunderstorm, flash flood and marine warnings back to 1986 from the NWS text archive. Storm Prediction Center watches and mesoscale discussions from SPC's archive through the Mesonet. County centers from the US Census Bureau. Warning verification from the Mesonet's Cow. Rebuilt daily.