Alert archive / Virginia / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2018

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 88

May 14, 20185 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at May 14, 2018, 12:29 PM EDT for 5 states. It was in force for 9 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 14, 2018, 12:29 PM EDT (16:29 UTC)
Expired: May 14, 2018, 9:44 PM EDT
In force: 9 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected: 1.5 in
Strongest gust expected: 65 kt

All 115 counties

Allegany County, MD, Anne Arundel County, MD, Baltimore County, MD, Calvert County, MD, Carroll County, MD, Charles County, MD, City of Baltimore, MD, Frederick County, MD, Garrett County, MD, Harford County, MD, Howard County, MD, Montgomery County, MD, Prince George's County, MD, Saint Mary's County, MD, Washington County, MD, Athens County, OH, Belmont County, OH, Guernsey County, OH, Harrison County, OH, Jefferson County, OH, Monroe County, OH, Morgan County, OH, Muskingum County, OH, Noble County, OH, Perry County, OH, Washington County, OH, Adams County, PA, Allegheny County, PA, Armstrong County, PA, Beaver County, PA, Bedford County, PA, Blair County, PA, Butler County, PA, Cambria County, PA, Cumberland County, PA, Fayette County, PA, Franklin County, PA, Fulton County, PA, Greene County, PA, Huntingdon County, PA, Indiana County, PA, Juniata County, PA, Mifflin County, PA, Perry County, PA, Somerset County, PA, Washington County, PA, Westmoreland County, PA, York County, PA, Albemarle County, VA, Arlington County, VA, Augusta County, VA, City of Alexandria, VA, City of Charlottesville, VA, City of Fairfax, VA, City of Falls Church, VA, City of Fredericksburg, VA, City of Harrisonburg, VA, City of Manassas, VA, City of Manassas Park, VA, City of Staunton, VA, City of Waynesboro, VA, City of Winchester, VA, Clarke County, VA, Culpeper County, VA, Fairfax County, VA, Fauquier County, VA, Frederick County, VA, Greene County, VA, Highland County, VA, King George County, VA, Loudoun County, VA, Madison County, VA, Nelson County, VA, Orange County, VA, Page County, VA, Prince William County, VA, Rappahannock County, VA, Rockingham County, VA, Shenandoah County, VA, Spotsylvania County, VA, Stafford County, VA, Warren County, VA, Barbour County, WV, Berkeley County, WV, Braxton County, WV, Brooke County, WV, Calhoun County, WV, Doddridge County, WV, Gilmer County, WV, Grant County, WV, Hampshire County, WV, Hardy County, WV, Harrison County, WV, Jefferson County, WV, Lewis County, WV, Marion County, WV, Marshall County, WV, Mineral County, WV, Monongalia County, WV, Morgan County, WV, Ohio County, WV, Pendleton County, WV, Pleasants County, WV, Pocahontas County, WV, Preston County, WV, Randolph County, WV, Ritchie County, WV, Taylor County, WV, Tucker County, WV, Tyler County, WV, Upshur County, WV, Webster County, WV, Wetzel County, WV, Wirt County, WV, Wood County, WV

The radar

The Pittsburgh radar (KPBZ), 106 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 16:33 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes: 20%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes: 20%
Ten or more severe wind reports: 90%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more: 60%
Ten or more severe hail reports: 30%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more: 20%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports: 95%

Warnings issued inside it

49 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 14, 1:19 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PBZ	Washington	41 min
May 14, 1:20 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RLX	Morgan, Perry	25 min
May 14, 1:36 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PBZ	Greene, Washington	39 min
May 14, 1:39 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PBZ	Fayette, Westmoreland	36 min
May 14, 1:43 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RLX	Athens, Morgan, Perry	47 min
May 14, 1:45 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PBZ	Monroe, Noble	45 min
May 14, 1:50 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PBZ	Fayette, Greene, Washington	40 min
May 14, 1:59 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CTP	Somerset	91 min
May 14, 2:19 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LWX	Augusta, City of Staunton, City of Waynesboro	41 min
May 14, 2:31 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PBZ	Greene	29 min
May 14, 2:45 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CTP	Somerset	75 min
May 14, 2:46 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LWX	Greene, Madison, Orange	44 min
May 14, 2:55 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LWX	Albemarle, Nelson	50 min
May 14, 2:59 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	PBZ	Fayette, Greene	2 hr
May 14, 3:01 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LWX	Albemarle, Greene, Orange	44 min
May 14, 3:15 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PBZ	Preston	30 min
May 14, 3:36 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PBZ	Marion, Monongalia, Preston	24 min
May 14, 3:39 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LWX	Albemarle, Nelson	66 min
May 14, 3:40 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RLX	Doddridge, Gilmer, Ritchie	35 min
May 14, 3:46 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LWX	Albemarle, Greene, Orange	44 min
May 14, 3:46 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	PBZ	Monongalia	3 hr
May 14, 3:53 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PBZ	Preston, Tucker	37 min
May 14, 3:54 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	LWX	Albemarle, Greene, Orange	5 hr
May 14, 4:03 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	PBZ	Marion, Monongalia, Preston	3 hr
May 14, 4:12 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LWX	Allegany	48 min
May 14, 4:15 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	LWX	Albemarle, Nelson	5 hr
May 14, 4:17 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PBZ	Tucker	43 min
May 14, 4:19 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LWX	Allegany, Washington	41 min
May 14, 4:36 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RLX	Pocahontas, Randolph, Upshur	24 min
May 14, 4:38 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LWX	Madison, Page, Rappahannock, Warren	52 min
May 14, 4:39 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LWX	Grant, Hardy, Pendleton	51 min
May 14, 4:51 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LWX	Washington	39 min
May 14, 5:11 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LWX	Nelson	49 min
May 14, 5:13 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LWX	Frederick, Washington	47 min
May 14, 5:29 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LWX	Montgomery	61 min
May 14, 5:33 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LWX	Albemarle, Greene, Madison, Page, Rockingham, Shenandoah and 1 more	57 min
May 14, 5:35 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LWX	Clarke, Culpeper, Fauquier, Loudoun, Madison, Page and 3 more	55 min
May 14, 5:42 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LWX	Albemarle, Augusta, Nelson, Rockingham, City of Staunton, City of Waynesboro	48 min
May 14, 5:49 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	LWX	Montgomery	26 min
May 14, 6:07 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LWX	Montgomery, Prince George's	53 min
May 14, 6:11 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LWX	Culpeper, Fauquier, Greene, Madison, Orange, Prince William and 3 more	79 min
May 14, 6:12 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	LWX	Montgomery	33 min
May 14, 6:14 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LWX	Albemarle, Nelson, City of Charlottesville	76 min
May 14, 6:33 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LWX	Charles, Prince George's	57 min
May 14, 6:56 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	LWX	Montgomery	3 hr
May 14, 7:00 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LWX	Charles, Montgomery, Prince George's	30 min
May 14, 7:12 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LWX	Anne Arundel, Calvert, Charles, Prince George's, Saint Mary's	63 min
May 14, 7:17 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	LWX	Page	2 hr
May 14, 7:29 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	LWX	Albemarle, Nelson	114 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Pittsburgh, PA (KAGC), launched 12:00Z, 4.5 hours before the alert went out and 89 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 39 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -196 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 822 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 35 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 82 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 103 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 14, 11:56 AM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Allegany, Carroll, Frederick, Garrett, Howard, Montgomery and 1 more	64 min
May 14, 3:26 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Allegany, Anne Arundel, Baltimore, Calvert, Carroll, Charles and 10 more	2 hr
May 14, 5:37 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Somerset	53 min
May 14, 6:11 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Dorchester, Somerset, Wicomico, Worcester	4 hr
May 14, 7:22 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Anne Arundel, Calvert, Charles, Howard, Prince George's, Saint Mary's and 1 more	53 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Virginia, 2018 Severe Thunderstorm Watches in West Virginia, 2018 Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Pennsylvania, 2018 Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2018

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.