Severe Thunderstorm Warning 42, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
221 PM EDT Mon May 14 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
An active weather regime the balance of the work week with a
boundary waffling around the region. Any day this week you
could see a downpour. No day will be a wash out however. Above
normal temperatures are forecast despite the wet weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
It will be an early show for severe weather compared to the past
few nights. Ongoing line of convection should be out of CWA by
20Z owing to scattered showers and thunderstorms through 23Z.
There are questions on what happens overnight? At this time,
once this batch moves through there will be a several hour break until
6Z. A thunderstorm complex will develop in the Great Lakes
which could reach eastern Ohio by daybreak /non-severe/. Did
ramp up pops toward dawn with highest values in Ohio. Also,
with a boundary in the region and plenty of low level moisture
can not rule out a pop up shower at any point after sunset, so
did not construct pops with a diurnal trend.

With the afternoon rain, look for patchy fog and stratus to
develop during the predawn hours, however area is not large
enough to warrant an inclusion in the grids at this time.
Temperatures won't recover much in wake of the rain, so values
will only fall a few degrees overnight. The Bias corrected
consensus raw guidance was used.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A broken record forecast as a stationary front continues to
waffle around the region. The right entrance region of H2 jet
crosses during the afternoon hours which will help ignite more
showers and storms. BUFR soundings don't show an impressive wind
field. In addition, freezing levels around 13KFT are not the
best for large hail. Therefore confidence is not high for
organized severe weather, but given aforementioned jet streak
and a pocket of cooling aloft associated with a shortwave
trough, isolated severe can not be ruled out.

Damaging wind and hail are the primary threats. Storm motion is
a little slower Tuesday, so flash flooding is elevated more so
than previous days. PWATS will be high for mid May with 1.4" and
warm cloud depths nearing 11KFT. As for now, risk for flash flooding
appears to be highest in northern West Virginia given
possibility of three straight days of rainfall.

With little change to the model forecast, this means little
change to the gridded forecast. Daytime highs will be in the mid
70s to lower 80s especially where the sun shines longer. Surface
dewpoints climb well into the 60s, so it will be humid outside.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Highlights:
- Continued Above Normal Temperatures
- Finally Change in Pattern come this Weekend
- High Water Threat Elevated Through Friday

No reprieve of the weather pattern through the balance of the
work week with a baroclinic zone camping out over the Ohio
Valley. This will be the focus for showers and thunderstorms
mainly during the daylight and evening hours. Atmosphere remains
unchanged with PWATS around three standard deviations above
normal and rich low level moisture that will produce downpours
with any storm. As we get deeper into the work week the
potential for flash flooding grows as the ground becomes
saturated. It remains tough to point out any specific areas
since we will have to wait to see which areas get hit multiple
times. Severe thunderstorm potential will exist daily with
damaging wind as the primary threat.

Mid level height falls will finally allow a cyclone to ride up
from the southeastern CONUS and push this boundary north of the
area. Most days of the forecast won't be a wash out, however
Saturday with front passing, expect the longest duration of wet
weather. Pops will remain above climo values all week with
likely numbers. After the boundary moves through dry weather
takes hold for a whopping one day before yet another cold front
traverses Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Spotty IFR/LIFR conditions should mix out by mid morning.
Another round of showers/thunderstorms with MVFR/local IFR
restrictions are expected by late morning and early aftn for
most ports as a crossing shortwave interacts with a stationary
front across the area. A return to VFR is expected by eve after
the passage of the wave.

OUTLOOK...
Periodic restrictions are likely for much of this week as a
series of disturbances crosses the region and spawns showers
and thunderstorms.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1056 AM EDT Mon May 14 2018

MDZ001-OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ020-021-029-031-073>076-
WVZ001>004-012-021-509>514-151445-
Garrett-Tuscarawas-Carroll-Columbiana-Coshocton-Harrison-Jefferson-
Muskingum-Guernsey-Belmont-Noble-Monroe-Beaver-Allegheny-Washington-
Greene-Westmoreland-Westmoreland Ridges-Fayette-Fayette Ridges-
Hancock-Brooke-Ohio-Marshall-Wetzel-Marion-Monongalia-
Ridges of Eastern Monongalia and Northwestern Preston-Preston-
Eastern Preston-Western Tucker-Eastern Tucker-
1056 AM EDT Mon May 14 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western Maryland, east
central Ohio, southwest Pennsylvania, western Pennsylvania,
northern West Virginia and northern panhandle of West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

There is an enhanced risk for severe thunderstorms with damaging
wind as the primary threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

An increasing potential for flash flooding is expected through the
week as repeated rounds of showers and thunderstorms saturate the
ground.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ007>009-013>016-022-023-151445-
Mercer-Venango-Forest-Lawrence-Butler-Clarion-Jefferson-Armstrong-
Indiana-
1056 AM EDT Mon May 14 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Pennsylvania, west
central Pennsylvania and western Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected with isolated
severe. Primary threat is damaging wind gusts.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

An increasing potential for flash flooding is expected through the
week as repeated rounds of showers and thunderstorms saturate the
ground.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1056 AM EDT MON MAY 14 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0423 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CLAYSVILLE              40.12N  80.41W
05/13/2018                   WASHINGTON         PA   PUBLIC

            TREES DOWN ON BARN

0703 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BELLE VALLEY            39.79N  81.56W
05/13/2018                   NOBLE              OH   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            TREES DOWN

0832 PM     TSTM WND DMG     EDEN                    40.06N  80.64W
05/13/2018                   OHIO               WV   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            TREES DOWN ON PETERS RUN RD

0840 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WARNOCK                 40.02N  80.94W
05/13/2018                   BELMONT            OH   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            TREES DOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER PBZ1802932
EVENT NUMBER PBZ1802933
EVENT NUMBER PBZ1802934
EVENT NUMBER PBZ1802935

TGREEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1234 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 PM     HAIL             1 SSW LORE CITY         39.98N  81.46W
05/13/2018  E1.00 INCH       GUERNSEY           OH   PUBLIC

            HAIL OF VARYING SIZES, INCLUDING SOME LARGE
            QUARTER-SIZE STONES.

&&

EVENT NUMBER PBZ1802936

KRAMAR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
114 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2018

OHZ058-059-068-069-141745-
Guernsey-Monroe-Noble-Belmont-
114 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL WILL AFFECT EAST
CENTRAL GUERNSEY...NORTHEASTERN MONROE...SOUTHWESTERN BELMONT AND
NORTHEASTERN NOBLE COUNTIES...

At 114 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Barnesville,
moving southeast at 20 mph.

Hail up to the size of nickels is possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Barnesville...                    Beallsville...
Jerusalem...                      Wilson...
Alledonia...                      Somerton...
Cameron...                        Batesville...

This storm may intensify, so monitor local radio or television
stations for additional information and possible warnings from the
National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3992 8130 4000 8124 3995 8087 3976 8095
TIME...MOT...LOC 1714Z 296DEG 20KT 3994 8123

Bookbinder

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
132 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1230 PM     HAIL             2 ESE EAST GREENWOOD    40.01N  81.88W
05/14/2018  E1.00 INCH       MUSKINGUM          OH   PUBLIC

            ALONG LEEDOM HOLLOW RD

1230 PM     HAIL             1 NE SONORA             39.99N  81.89W
05/14/2018  E0.75 INCH       MUSKINGUM          OH   PUBLIC

            ALONG NORFIELD RD

&&

EVENT NUMBER PBZ1802937
EVENT NUMBER PBZ1802938

KRAMAR

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
210 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0150 PM     HAIL             2 N BEHAM               40.05N  80.50W
05/14/2018  E1.00 INCH       WASHINGTON         PA   PUBLIC

            ALONG MOORE RD

&&

EVENT NUMBER PBZ1802940

KRAMAR