Severe Thunderstorm Warning 39, NWS Baltimore/Washington

430 
WWUS51 KLWX 141901
SVSLWX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
301 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2018

VAC079-113-137-141930-
/O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0039.000000T0000Z-180514T1930Z/
Madison VA-Orange VA-Greene VA-
301 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHERN MADISON...SOUTHWESTERN ORANGE AND SOUTHEASTERN GREENE
COUNTIES...

At 301 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Madison, moving
east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to 
         fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage 
         homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed 
         trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured 
         light objects may become projectiles.

Locations impacted include...
Madison, Stanardsville, Ruckersville, Brightwood, Quinque, Eheart,
Oakpark, Pratts, Rochelle, Newtown, Aroda, Shelby, Dawsonville,
Twymans Mill, Wolftown, Hood, Burtonville, Old Somerset and
Barboursville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Get indoors to protect yourself from wind and lightning. Trees around
you may be downed from damaging winds, so if you are near large
trees, move to an interior room on the lowest floor. Don't drive
underneath trees or in wooded areas until the threat has passed.

&&

LAT...LON 3827 7848 3838 7843 3840 7811 3816 7826
TIME...MOT...LOC 1901Z 287DEG 14KT 3833 7829 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

DHOF

111 
WWUS51 KLWX 141911
SVSLWX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
311 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2018

VAC079-113-137-141930-
/O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0039.000000T0000Z-180514T1930Z/
Madison VA-Orange VA-Greene VA-
311 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHERN MADISON...SOUTHWESTERN ORANGE AND SOUTHEASTERN GREENE
COUNTIES...

At 311 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Madison, moving
east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to 
         fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage 
         homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed 
         trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured 
         light objects may become projectiles.

Locations impacted include...
Madison, Stanardsville, Ruckersville, Brightwood, Quinque, Eheart,
Oakpark, Pratts, Rochelle, Newtown, Aroda, Shelby, Dawsonville,
Twymans Mill, Wolftown, Burtonville, Old Somerset and Barboursville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Get indoors to protect yourself from wind and lightning. Trees around
you may be downed from damaging winds, so if you are near large
trees, move to an interior room on the lowest floor. Don't drive
underneath trees or in wooded areas until the threat has passed.

&&

LAT...LON 3827 7848 3839 7834 3840 7811 3816 7826
TIME...MOT...LOC 1911Z 287DEG 14KT 3832 7824 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

DHOF

524 
WWUS51 KLWX 141923
SVSLWX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
323 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2018

VAC113-141933-
/O.CAN.KLWX.SV.W.0039.000000T0000Z-180514T1930Z/
Madison VA-
323 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN MADISON COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for
central and northwestern Virginia.

LAT...LON 3827 7848 3834 7840 3832 7836 3829 7836
      3829 7835 3828 7835 3828 7834 3827 7833
      3827 7829 3823 7825 3823 7822 3824 7821
      3816 7826
TIME...MOT...LOC 1923Z 287DEG 14KT 3831 7818 

$$

VAC079-137-141930-
/O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0039.000000T0000Z-180514T1930Z/
Orange VA-Greene VA-
323 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN ORANGE AND SOUTHEASTERN GREENE COUNTIES...

At 323 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Orange, moving
east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to 
         fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage 
         homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed 
         trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured 
         light objects may become projectiles.

Locations impacted include...
Stanardsville, Ruckersville, Newtown, Quinque, Eheart, Old Somerset,
Dawsonville, Burtonville and Barboursville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Get indoors to protect yourself from wind and lightning. Trees around
you may be downed from damaging winds, so if you are near large
trees, move to an interior room on the lowest floor. Don't drive
underneath trees or in wooded areas until the threat has passed.

&&

LAT...LON 3827 7848 3834 7840 3832 7836 3829 7836
      3829 7835 3828 7835 3828 7834 3827 7833
      3827 7829 3823 7825 3823 7822 3824 7821
      3816 7826
TIME...MOT...LOC 1923Z 287DEG 14KT 3831 7818 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

DHOF

Area Forecast Discussion...DELAYED
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1204 PM EDT Mon May 14 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A front over the area will lift north late today and tonight
then drop southward again Tuesday night and Wednesday when it
will become stationary across the area through Friday. The front
may lift north again during the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Currently, there are no echos being observed by the local
radars. Fog has mostly lifted, but low clouds linger, and it may
be a struggle today to completely mix them out. Temperatures
should rise significantly down towards CHO and west of the Blue
Ridge south of MRB, but MRB over towards NHK and points
northeast are much more questionable as far as how much the low
level cool air mixes out and temps warm up this afternoon.

The stationary boundary that has remained stretched across our
CWA the past couple of days has been expected to lift northward
today, but the speed this occurs at has a good shot of being
delayed. That said, with the assistance of passing mid level
energy this afternoon and the proximity of the boundary, we are
expecting another round of strong to severe thunderstorms this
afternoon. Showers and storms are expected to redevelop across
and northwest of the region this afternoon. An Enhanced Risk
for severe storms encompasses portions of our area, mainly south
of the I-70 corridor and west southwest of the District,
including much of the Shenandoah Valley and portions of the
Potomac Highlands, which is where the warm sector is forecast to
reside. Ample CAPE of 2000+ J/KG and sufficient 0-6km shear
values of 30- 40 kts will promote conditions favorable for
primarily damaging wind gusts and hail. Convection will wane
during the evening hours with a drier trend expected overnight.
Temperatures will settle in to the mid to upper 60s after seeing
highs top out today in the 80s, except northeast of DC where the
front will struggle and 70s are more likely. Later tonight, we
may get anothe round of low clouds and patchy fog.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The stationary boundary will lift further northward on Tuesday,
residing across Pennsylvania by Tuesday afternoon. Much warmer
conditions expected on Tuesday as a result with highs reaching
the lower 90s, and humidity values well above normal. We may
start with some low clouds and patchy fog, but it should mix out
more efficiently than what we are seeing today. Continued
showers and thunderstorm chances expected Tuesday afternoon,
with another Slight Risk of severe storms possible for much of
the area. Shear values will be less on Tuesday, but CAPE should
be higher, so strong to severe storms will be possible. The
stationary front dips back southward across our area on
Wednesday, bringing continued threat for showers and afternoon
thunderstorms once again, but with less severe risk.
Temperatures will be cooler Wednesday with ample cloud cover and
showers around, with highs topping out around 80, and lows in
the mid to upper 60s both Tuesday and Wednesday nights.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Tropical moisture will be funneled northward across the mid
Atlantic states Thu-Fri between a mid-upper level trough over
the lower MS valley and a strong subtropical ridge over the
western Atlantic. A stationary front across the area will also
act to enhance rainfall over the area. In addition, largely
unidirectional flow Thu night also suggests potential for
training convection. The Thu night-Fri period looks like the
wettest period of the week particularly late Thu night into Fri
morning. Widespread amounts of 1 to 2 inches appear likely
during this period. 13/18Z MMEFS guidance show potential for
river flooding based on the 10 to 50th QPF percentiles. Given
all the ingredients described above and increasingly wetter
soils, some flooding appears likely this week, but location and
timing are still uncertain. It does appear though as the I-95
corridor would be the most vulnerable to flooding.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IFR/LIFR conditions being observed across the terminals this
morning with low CIGs, though VIS restritions are ending, while
winds remain light and variable. These restrictions will
slowly continue improving, likely returning to VFR early
afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will return to the
terminals this afternoon, bringing episodes of sub-VFR condtions
once again, with winds favoring a more southerly trajectory. Low
clouds and fog may redevelop again tonight, but should be less
persistent tomorrow morning. Another round of showers and storms
is expected later Tuesday afternoon and evening.

The persistent stationary boundary will lingering across the
Mid Atlantic through midweek, bringing plenty of clouds and rain
chances to the terminals. Sub-VFR conditions will be possible
through this period as a result, with winds generally remaining
10 knots or less, outside of convection.

IFR conditions seem likely Thu night-Fri morning with heavy
rain.

&&

.MARINE...
No headlines expected through tonight with light winds
prevailing over the waters. Afternoon and early evening
showers/thunderstorms will once again cross the waters, bringing
the threat for gusty winds which could result in Special Marine
Warnings. SCA conditions possible during the day on Tuesday as
southerly winds increase and become gusty. Sub SCA conditions
likely return through Wednesday night as light winds prevail.
With the persistent stationary boundary remaining near the area,
periods of showers and thunderstorms will continue each day,
bringing the possibility for Special Marine Warnings should
conditions warrant.

SCA conditions possible Fri afternoon into Sat in southerly
flow.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Minor coastal flooding possible at Annapolis and Straits Point
during the late evening/early morning high tide cycle next few
days. New minor coastal flood thresholds are expected to be
implemented on Tue for Annapolis and Straits Point assuming
there is no flooding ongoing which may temper the coastal flood
threat somewhat.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...BKF
SHORT TERM...BKF
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...BKF/LFR
MARINE...BKF/LFR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
153 PM EDT Mon May 14 2018

ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ011-013-014-016>018-508-VAZ052>057-151800-
Chesapeake Bay north of Pooles Island MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Pooles Island to Sandy Point MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Sandy Point to North Beach MD-
Chesapeake Bay from North Beach to Drum Point MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point MD to Smith Point VA-
Tidal Potomac from Key Bridge to Indian Head MD-
Tidal Potomac from Indian Head to Cobb Island MD-
Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island MD to Smith Point VA-
Patapsco River including Baltimore Harbor-
Chester River to Queenstown MD-Eastern Bay-
Choptank River to Cambridge MD and the Little Choptank River-
Patuxent River to Broomes Island MD-
Tangier Sound and the inland waters surrounding Bloodsworth
Island-District of Columbia-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-
Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys-Calvert-Southeast Harford-
Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax-
Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-Spotsylvania-
King George-
153 PM EDT Mon May 14 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Maryland portion of the
Chesapeake Bay, Tidal Potomac River, and adjacent counties in
central Maryland and northern Virginia as well as the District of
Columbia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A severe thunderstorm watch is in effect through 9 PM. Scattered
severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts and large hail are
possible this afternoon and evening. The greatest risk is south of
U.S. Highway 50.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Isolated severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts and large
hail are possible again Tuesday afternoon and evening.

Heavy rains Thursday night and Friday may result in small stream
and urban flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed later today.

MDZ003>006-501>507-VAZ025>031-036>040-050-051-501>508-WVZ050>053-
055-501>506-151800-
Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-
Extreme Western Allegany-Central and Eastern Allegany-
Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery-
Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford-
Augusta-Rockingham-Shenandoah-Frederick VA-Page-Warren-Clarke-
Nelson-Albemarle-Greene-Madison-Rappahannock-Orange-Culpeper-
Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Highland-
Eastern Highland-Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun-
Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Central Virginia Blue Ridge-
Hampshire-Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson-Hardy-Western Grant-
Eastern Grant-Western Mineral-Eastern Mineral-Western Pendleton-
Eastern Pendleton-
153 PM EDT Mon May 14 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern West Virginia,
northern and central Virginia, and central and western Maryland
with the exception of Garrett County.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A severe thunderstorm watch is in effect through 9 PM. Scattered
severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts and large hail are
possible across eastern West Virginia, western Maryland, and
central, northern, and western Virginia this afternoon and
evening.

Scattered incidents of flooding are possible along the northern
and central Virginia Blue Ridge into the Piedmont.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Isolated severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts and large
hail are possible again Tuesday.

Scattered incidents of flooding are possible across all of
northern Maryland and parts of eastern West Virginia Tuesday night
and across southern Maryland Wednesday and Wednesday night.

Heavy rains Thursday night and Friday may result in flooding of
small streams and rivers.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters activation may be needed later today.