Alert archive / Virginia / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2018
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 86
The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at May 13, 2018, 4:28 PM EDT for 5 states. It was in force for 7 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 13, 2018, 4:28 PM EDT (20:28 UTC)
- Expired
- May 13, 2018, 11:00 PM EDT
- In force
- 7 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Largest hail expected
- 2 in
- Strongest gust expected
- 55 kt
All 62 counties
Allegany County, MD, Garrett County, MD, Washington County, MD, Belmont County, OH, Guernsey County, OH, Monroe County, OH, Morgan County, OH, Muskingum County, OH, Noble County, OH, Washington County, OH, Bedford County, PA, Fayette County, PA, Greene County, PA, Somerset County, PA, Washington County, PA, Westmoreland County, PA, Caroline County, VA, City of Fredericksburg, VA, City of Manassas, VA, City of Manassas Park, VA, City of Winchester, VA, Clarke County, VA, Culpeper County, VA, Essex County, VA, Fauquier County, VA, Frederick County, VA, Hanover County, VA, King and Queen County, VA, King George County, VA, King William County, VA, Loudoun County, VA, Louisa County, VA, Madison County, VA, Orange County, VA, Page County, VA, Prince William County, VA, Rappahannock County, VA, Shenandoah County, VA, Spotsylvania County, VA, Stafford County, VA, Warren County, VA, Barbour County, WV, Berkeley County, WV, Brooke County, WV, Doddridge County, WV, Grant County, WV, Hampshire County, WV, Hardy County, WV, Harrison County, WV, Jefferson County, WV, Marion County, WV, Marshall County, WV, Mineral County, WV, Monongalia County, WV, Morgan County, WV, Ohio County, WV, Pleasants County, WV, Preston County, WV, Taylor County, WV, Tucker County, WV, Tyler County, WV, Wetzel County, WV
The radar
The Pittsburgh radar (KPBZ), 125 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:30 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What SPC expected
The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.
- Two or more tornadoes
- 20%
- One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
- 10%
- Ten or more severe wind reports
- 40%
- One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
- 20%
- Ten or more severe hail reports
- 40%
- One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
- 30%
- Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
- 70%
Warnings issued inside it
21 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 13, 4:36 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | CTP | Cambria, Somerset | 69 min |
| May 13, 4:53 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | PBZ | Fayette, Greene, Washington | 52 min |
| May 13, 5:44 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | CTP | Cambria, Somerset | 61 min |
| May 13, 5:50 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | Culpeper, Fauquier, Rappahannock | 40 min |
| May 13, 6:00 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | CTP | Bedford | 69 min |
| May 13, 6:05 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | Allegany, Washington | 55 min |
| May 13, 6:09 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | LWX | Culpeper | 21 min |
| May 13, 6:17 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | PBZ | Guernsey, Monroe, Muskingum, Noble | 43 min |
| May 13, 6:18 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | CTP | Bedford | 42 min |
| May 13, 6:23 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | Culpeper | 32 min |
| May 13, 6:39 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | Fauquier, Prince William | 24 min |
| May 13, 6:48 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | Fauquier, Stafford | 15 min |
| May 13, 6:50 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | Allegany, Washington | 40 min |
| May 13, 6:52 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | PBZ | Monroe | 25 min |
| May 13, 6:54 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | PBZ | Belmont, Guernsey, Noble | 36 min |
| May 13, 7:22 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | Washington | 25 min |
| May 13, 7:22 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | PBZ | Belmont, Guernsey, Noble | 33 min |
| May 13, 7:59 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | PBZ | Belmont | 22 min |
| May 13, 8:22 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | PBZ | Belmont, Harrison | 24 min |
| May 13, 9:03 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RLX | Athens, Washington | 27 min |
| May 13, 10:37 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RLX | Athens, Morgan, Perry | 23 min |
Discussions around it
SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.
The nearest sounding before it
Pittsburgh, PA (KAGC), launched 12:00Z, 8.5 hours before the alert went out and 109 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 28 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -201 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 485 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 50 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 267 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 366 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 2.1
SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 12, 9:14 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Caroline, Talbot | 61 min |
| May 13, 1:56 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Allegany, Garrett | 2 hr |
| May 13, 7:00 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Charles, Garrett | 60 min |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Virginia, 2018Severe Thunderstorm Watches in West Virginia, 2018Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Ohio, 2018Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2018
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.