Alert archive / Ohio / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 1474

August 11, 202125 counties in Ohio; Lawrence County, Mercer County, Pennsylvania

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Aug 11, 2021, 9:31 AM EDT for 25 counties in Ohio; Lawrence County, Mercer County, Pennsylvania. It was in force for 89 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Aug 11, 2021, 9:31 AM EDT (13:31 UTC)
Expired
Aug 11, 2021, 11:00 AM EDT
In force
89 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe potential...watch unlikely
Chance of a watch
20%
All 27 counties

Ashland County, OH, Ashtabula County, OH, Carroll County, OH, Columbiana County, OH, Coshocton County, OH, Crawford County, OH, Cuyahoga County, OH, Erie County, OH, Geauga County, OH, Harrison County, OH, Holmes County, OH, Huron County, OH, Knox County, OH, Lake County, OH, Lorain County, OH, Mahoning County, OH, Medina County, OH, Morrow County, OH, Portage County, OH, Richland County, OH, Stark County, OH, Summit County, OH, Trumbull County, OH, Tuscarawas County, OH, Wayne County, OH, Lawrence County, PA, Mercer County, PA

The radar

The Cleveland radar (KCLE), 44 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 13:32 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Pittsburgh, PA (KPIT), launched 12:00Z, 1.5 hours before the alert went out and 145 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Pittsburgh, PA at 12:00Z on 2021-08-11Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 267 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Pittsburgh, PA at 12:00Z on 2021-08-11The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 131 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
267 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-243 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1321 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
18 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
131 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
188 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

910 
ACUS11 KWNS 111332
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111331 
PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-111500-

Mesoscale Discussion 1474
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0831 AM CDT Wed Aug 11 2021

Areas affected...Northern Ohio into far northwest Pennsylvania

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 111331Z - 111500Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible through the
morning.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms is moving across northern Ohio and
has produced occasional stronger wind gusts including a gust to 41
kts at the Findlay, OH ASOS. Inbound velocities are showing stronger
wind speeds which based on this observation and lack of reports may
suggest winds are mostly below 50 knots. The downstream environment
is sufficiently unstable for MCS maintenance, but is not overly
favorable for a severe wind threat. Southward propagation toward the
better instability is likely through time and warming should lead to
significant destabilization by late morning to to early afternoon.
By this time, the severe weather threat may increase and a watch may
be needed. However, no watch is anticipated in the next 1 to 2 hours
given the current mostly weak downstream instability.

..Bentley/Thompson.. 08/11/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...

LAT...LON   41508263 41548186 41828116 41928080 41908065 41378019
            41037999 40598050 40198112 40218167 40258241 40528303
            40808333 41508263

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Aug 10, 8:12 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCWilliams63 min
Aug 10, 8:38 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCWilliams5 hr
Aug 10, 10:57 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCDefiance, Fulton, Henry, Lucas, Paulding, Putnam and 2 more93 min
Aug 11, 10:52 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCDefiance, Paulding, Williams83 min
Aug 11, 11:50 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCarroll, Columbiana, Harrison, Jefferson, Mahoning, Trumbull115 min
Aug 11, 11:50 AM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAllen, Defiance, Fulton, Henry, Paulding, Putnam and 2 more4 hr
Aug 11, 1:26 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllen, Defiance, Fulton, Henry, Paulding, Putnam and 2 more94 min
Aug 11, 2:12 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllen, Ashland, Auglaize, Champaign, Crawford, Delaware and 26 more93 min
Aug 11, 2:32 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAshland, Auglaize, Champaign, Clark, Crawford, Cuyahoga and 28 more4 hr
Aug 11, 4:24 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAthens, Belmont, Carroll, Clinton, Columbiana, Coshocton and 31 more96 min
Aug 11, 4:57 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAshtabula, Belmont, Carroll, Columbiana, Coshocton, Geauga and 13 more3 hr
Aug 11, 2:03 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdams, Armstrong, Bedford, Berks, Blair, Bucks and 42 more87 min
Aug 11, 3:02 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAdams, Bedford, Berks, Blair, Bucks, Carbon and 26 more6 hr
Aug 11, 6:44 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBerks, Bucks, Carbon, Chester, Delaware, Lancaster and 6 more91 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Ohio, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Pennsylvania, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.