Alert archive / Ohio / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 1486

August 11, 202137 counties in Ohio

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Aug 11, 2021, 4:24 PM EDT for 37 counties in Ohio. It was in force for 96 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Aug 11, 2021, 4:24 PM EDT (20:24 UTC)
Expired
Aug 11, 2021, 6:00 PM EDT
In force
96 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe potential...watch possible
Chance of a watch
60%
All 37 counties

Athens County, OH, Belmont County, OH, Carroll County, OH, Clinton County, OH, Columbiana County, OH, Coshocton County, OH, Fairfield County, OH, Fayette County, OH, Franklin County, OH, Geauga County, OH, Greene County, OH, Guernsey County, OH, Harrison County, OH, Highland County, OH, Hocking County, OH, Holmes County, OH, Jackson County, OH, Jefferson County, OH, Licking County, OH, Mahoning County, OH, Meigs County, OH, Morgan County, OH, Muskingum County, OH, Noble County, OH, Perry County, OH, Pickaway County, OH, Pike County, OH, Portage County, OH, Ross County, OH, Stark County, OH, Summit County, OH, Trumbull County, OH, Tuscarawas County, OH, Vinton County, OH, Warren County, OH, Washington County, OH, Wayne County, OH

The radar

The Cincinnati radar (KILN), 151 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:27 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Cncnati-Daytn, OH (KILN), launched 12:00Z, 8.4 hours before the alert went out and 149 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Cncnati-Daytn, OH at 12:00Z on 2021-08-11Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1853 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Cncnati-Daytn, OH at 12:00Z on 2021-08-11The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 46 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1853 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-70 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1037 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
10 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
46 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
71 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

652 
ACUS11 KWNS 112024
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112024 
OHZ000-112200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1486
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0324 PM CDT Wed Aug 11 2021

Areas affected...Southern and Eastern Ohio

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 112024Z - 112200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Portions of eastern and southern Ohio are being monitored
for a potential watch downstream of watch 426.

DISCUSSION...A line of storms continues east across northern Ohio.
The airmass remains unstable downstream of this activity within
watch 426 but then becomes more uncertain to its south and east. A
large area of outflow from storms in West Virginia this morning has
surged northward and stabilized portions of southern and eastern
Ohio as can be observed by the lack of cu on visible satellite. In
addition, storms developed on this boundary in far eastern Ohio
which has acted to reinforce this outflow boundary as it continues
north. This may limit convective intensity across portions of
southeast and eastern Ohio. However, west of this outflow boundary,
a very unstable airmass is in place with MLCAPE around 3000 J/kg.
Recently storms have started to form ahead of the line within the
cumulus field which could also could pose some severe risk given the
instability.

..Bentley/Thompson.. 08/11/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...

LAT...LON   39058196 38918232 39148379 39598453 39778375 40158262
            41208167 41838084 41938054 40008074 39188180 39058196

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Aug 10, 8:12 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCWilliams63 min
Aug 10, 8:38 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCWilliams5 hr
Aug 10, 10:57 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCDefiance, Fulton, Henry, Lucas, Paulding, Putnam and 2 more93 min
Aug 11, 9:31 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAshland, Ashtabula, Carroll, Columbiana, Coshocton, Crawford and 19 more89 min
Aug 11, 10:52 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCDefiance, Paulding, Williams83 min
Aug 11, 11:50 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCarroll, Columbiana, Harrison, Jefferson, Mahoning, Trumbull115 min
Aug 11, 11:50 AM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAllen, Defiance, Fulton, Henry, Paulding, Putnam and 2 more4 hr
Aug 11, 1:26 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllen, Defiance, Fulton, Henry, Paulding, Putnam and 2 more94 min
Aug 11, 2:12 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllen, Ashland, Auglaize, Champaign, Crawford, Delaware and 26 more93 min
Aug 11, 2:32 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAshland, Auglaize, Champaign, Clark, Crawford, Cuyahoga and 28 more4 hr
Aug 11, 4:57 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAshtabula, Belmont, Carroll, Columbiana, Coshocton, Geauga and 13 more3 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Ohio, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.