Tornado Watch 45

Issued

Feb 29, 2012, 3:20 AM CST (09:20 UTC)

Expired

Feb 29, 2012, 12:00 PM CST

In force

9 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Largest hail expected

1.5 in

Strongest gust expected

65 kt

The Memphis radar (KNQA), 130 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 09:20 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Two or more tornadoes

50%

One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes

30%

Ten or more severe wind reports

80%

One or more gusts of 65 knots or more

20%

Ten or more severe hail reports

30%

One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more

10%

Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports

95%

• Mesoscale Discussion 176Feb 29, 12:49 AM CST
• Mesoscale Discussion 178Feb 29, 3:53 AM CST
• Mesoscale Discussion 180Feb 29, 8:07 AM CST
• Mesoscale Discussion 182Feb 29, 11:11 AM CST

218 
WWUS20 KWNS 290927
SEL5
SPC WW 290927
ARZ000-MOZ000-TNZ000-291800-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 45
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
320 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

       NORTHERN AND EASTERN ARKANSAS
       THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL
       WEST TENNESSEE

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 320 AM UNTIL NOON CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 75 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 130 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTHWEST OF
DYERSBURG TENNESSEE TO 35 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF BATESVILLE
ARKANSAS.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 43...WW 44...

DISCUSSION...LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS IN N CNTRL AR EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE EWD INTO MOISTENING LOW LVL ENVIRONMENT OVER NE AR/FAR SE
MO AND NW TN THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING.  BOTH SATELLITE AND MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE WEAK
RELATIVE TO POINTS IMMEDIATELY NORTH.  WARM LAYER AROUND 700 MB ALSO
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING CINH WITH SWD EXTENT IN AR/W
TN...POSSIBLY INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT OF NEW STORMS.  BUT COMBINATION
OF VERY STRONG LOW TO MID LVL WIND FIELD...INCREASING LOW LVL
MOISTURE...AND LOW LVL CONFLUENCE SUGGEST CONTINUED CONDITIONAL RISK
FOR TORNADOES...POSSIBLY STRONG...AND DMGG WIND WITH ANY SUSTAINED
STORMS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25050.


...CORFIDI

Tornado Watches in Arkansas, 2012Tornado Watches in Tennessee, 2012Tornado Watches in Missouri, 2012Every tornado watch in 2012

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.