Severe Thunderstorm Warning 44, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
342 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ACROSS NRN AND PORTIONS OF NRN AR THIS
MORNING ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS
PROGRESS TO THE SE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTING ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. EARLY THIS MORNING...THE BIGGEST THREAT FOR SVR STORMS HAS
BEEN ACROSS THE NRN AR OZARKS NEAR THE MO BORDER WHERE STORMS ARE
IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE BEST FORCING LIFTING NORTH OF THE
STATE. BIGGEST THREAT SO FAR HAS BEEN DAMAGING WINDS...THOUGH MID
LEVEL MESOS HAVE BEEN NOTED OVER TIME. THIS HAS ENHANCE THE HAIL
THREAT OFF AN ON...BUT WIND CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN THREAT. LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELDS HAVE PREVENTED STORMS FROM TIGHTENING MUCH NEAR
THE SFC...WITH OBS AHEAD OF THE LINE SHOWING SW WINDS.
HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL DOES STILL REMAIN FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY TO SEE IF THE
TIGHTER CIRCULATIONS CAN EXTEND FURTHER DOWNWARD. TORNADO WATCH
CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE NRN AND NERN AR COUNTIES.

THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...BEST POPS WILL REMAIN NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES SE ACROSS THE STATE. SOME STORMS COULD
BECOME STRONG TO SVR...MAINLY ACROSS SERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE
WHERE THE BETTER INSTABILITY WOULD EXIST. DEEP LAYER SHR WILL BE
PLENTIFUL THAT STORMS COULD ROTATE ALOFT...WITH MAINLY A WIND AND
HAIL THREAT EXPECTED. THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR LOOKS LIMITED ENOUGH THAT
ONLY AN ISOLATED HAIL THREAT WOULD EXIST. AGAIN...THE BEST THREAT
FOR SVR WX THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS THE SERN COUNTIES.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE NATURAL STATE STARTING THU NIGHT AS
MOISTURE SURGES BACK NORTH FROM THE GULF. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SURGE SE
ACROSS THE STATE FRI AFTERNOON. MOISTURE LEVEL WILL BE HIGH
ENOUGH...WITH INSTABILITY AND SHR LEVELS ALSO HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT
A MENTION OF STRONG TO SVR THUNDERSTORMS AS A POSSIBILITY.
HOWEVER...AS WITH THIS MORNINGS SCENARIO...THE BEST LARGE SCALE
FORCING WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF AR THAT THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD
SVR WX LOOKS SOMEWHAT LIMITED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTIES
DO REMAIN REGARDING THE TIMING AND LOCATIONS OF THE FINER
DETAILS...SO WILL REFER TO THE LATEST DATA IN THE NEXT 24-36 HRS TO
SEE HOW THIS LATE WEEK STORM SYSTEM EVOLVES.

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE PLAINS TO START
THE PERIOD. FROM THERE...A NORTHWEST WIND FLOW ALOFT WILL QUICKLY
TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL. AS THE HIGH EXITS TO THE EAST ON
MONDAY/TUESDAY...SURFACE WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY. THERE ARE
INDICATIONS OF A DEWPOINT SURGE AND AN INCREASE IN LOW CLOUDS
TUESDAY NIGHT. ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS WELL.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AS THE
HIGH RETREATS. READINGS WILL BE MOSTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     74  43  69  52 /  50  10  10  30
CAMDEN AR         75  48  77  62 /  60  20  10  40
HARRISON AR       65  41  70  51 /  10   0   0  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    74  45  75  57 /  40  10  10  30
LITTLE ROCK   AR  74  45  73  56 /  50  10  10  40
MONTICELLO AR     76  51  77  62 /  60  20  10  40
MOUNT IDA AR      73  43  75  56 /  30  10  10  30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  69  40  69  51 /  10   0   0  30
NEWPORT AR        73  43  70  53 /  50  10  10  40
PINE BLUFF AR     74  47  75  60 /  60  20  10  40
RUSSELLVILLE AR   72  42  72  53 /  20  10  10  30
SEARCY AR         74  43  71  54 /  50  10  10  40
STUTTGART AR      74  45  73  58 /  60  10  10  40
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...62 / LONG TERM...46

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
500 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-011100-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
500 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT OVER NORTHERN ARKANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP. ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE IN
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE. ANY STORMS THAT BECOME SEVERE WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE GULF COAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
DRIER AIR WILL BE NOTED BEHIND THE FRONT. ON FRIDAY...A STORM
SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. IN RESPONSE TO THE SYSTEM...THE STALLED FRONT TO THE SOUTH
WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE STATE...AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE.

THE SYSTEM WILL DRAG A NEW COLD FRONT INTO ARKANSAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE FRONT WILL TRIGGER ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE SOUTH AND EAST OF
LITTLE ROCK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY IN THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF ARKANSAS.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

46

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
339 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 AM     HAIL             MOUNTAIN HOME           36.34N 92.38W
02/29/2012  E1.25 INCH       BAXTER             AR   PUBLIC

0320 AM     HAIL             5 W VIOLA               36.40N 92.07W
02/29/2012  E0.88 INCH       FULTON             AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

46

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
343 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0325 AM     HAIL             NORFORK                 36.21N 92.28W
02/29/2012  E1.00 INCH       BAXTER             AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HAIL RANGED IN SIZE FROM PENNY TO QUARTER.

&&

46

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
424 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0325 AM     HAIL             VIOLA                   36.40N 91.98W
02/29/2012  E1.00 INCH       FULTON             AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

46

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
426 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0410 AM     TSTM WND DMG     CHEROKEE VILLAGE        36.31N 91.53W
02/29/2012                   SHARP              AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SOME TREE DEBRIS WAS ON LOCAL ROADWAYS. A WALL CLOUD WAS
            REPORTED AS THE STORM WENT BY.

&&

46

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
541 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012

ARZ007-291155-
SHARP AR-
541 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN SHARP COUNTY UNTIL 600
AM CST...

AT 537 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR HWY 58 AND US 167 JCT...OR 15 MILES SOUTH OF
ASH FLAT...MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  CAVE CITY...          POUGHKEEPSIE...       NELSONVILLE...
  GRANGE...             EVENING SHADE...      STREET LAKE...
  HWY 58 AND US 167 JCT...                    HWY 58 AND 115 JCT...
  HWY 354 AND 58...     BEN GAY...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY....AND A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS
AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS
LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS....FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3617 9135 3616 9134 3606 9134 3597 9135
      3593 9151 3594 9162 3608 9168
TIME...MOT...LOC 1141Z 253DEG 60KT 3603 9152

62