Tornado Warning 15, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
342 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ACROSS NRN AND PORTIONS OF NRN AR THIS
MORNING ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS
PROGRESS TO THE SE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTING ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. EARLY THIS MORNING...THE BIGGEST THREAT FOR SVR STORMS HAS
BEEN ACROSS THE NRN AR OZARKS NEAR THE MO BORDER WHERE STORMS ARE
IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE BEST FORCING LIFTING NORTH OF THE
STATE. BIGGEST THREAT SO FAR HAS BEEN DAMAGING WINDS...THOUGH MID
LEVEL MESOS HAVE BEEN NOTED OVER TIME. THIS HAS ENHANCE THE HAIL
THREAT OFF AN ON...BUT WIND CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN THREAT. LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELDS HAVE PREVENTED STORMS FROM TIGHTENING MUCH NEAR
THE SFC...WITH OBS AHEAD OF THE LINE SHOWING SW WINDS.
HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL DOES STILL REMAIN FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY TO SEE IF THE
TIGHTER CIRCULATIONS CAN EXTEND FURTHER DOWNWARD. TORNADO WATCH
CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE NRN AND NERN AR COUNTIES.

THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...BEST POPS WILL REMAIN NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES SE ACROSS THE STATE. SOME STORMS COULD
BECOME STRONG TO SVR...MAINLY ACROSS SERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE
WHERE THE BETTER INSTABILITY WOULD EXIST. DEEP LAYER SHR WILL BE
PLENTIFUL THAT STORMS COULD ROTATE ALOFT...WITH MAINLY A WIND AND
HAIL THREAT EXPECTED. THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR LOOKS LIMITED ENOUGH THAT
ONLY AN ISOLATED HAIL THREAT WOULD EXIST. AGAIN...THE BEST THREAT
FOR SVR WX THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS THE SERN COUNTIES.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE NATURAL STATE STARTING THU NIGHT AS
MOISTURE SURGES BACK NORTH FROM THE GULF. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SURGE SE
ACROSS THE STATE FRI AFTERNOON. MOISTURE LEVEL WILL BE HIGH
ENOUGH...WITH INSTABILITY AND SHR LEVELS ALSO HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT
A MENTION OF STRONG TO SVR THUNDERSTORMS AS A POSSIBILITY.
HOWEVER...AS WITH THIS MORNINGS SCENARIO...THE BEST LARGE SCALE
FORCING WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF AR THAT THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD
SVR WX LOOKS SOMEWHAT LIMITED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTIES
DO REMAIN REGARDING THE TIMING AND LOCATIONS OF THE FINER
DETAILS...SO WILL REFER TO THE LATEST DATA IN THE NEXT 24-36 HRS TO
SEE HOW THIS LATE WEEK STORM SYSTEM EVOLVES.

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE PLAINS TO START
THE PERIOD. FROM THERE...A NORTHWEST WIND FLOW ALOFT WILL QUICKLY
TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL. AS THE HIGH EXITS TO THE EAST ON
MONDAY/TUESDAY...SURFACE WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY. THERE ARE
INDICATIONS OF A DEWPOINT SURGE AND AN INCREASE IN LOW CLOUDS
TUESDAY NIGHT. ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS WELL.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AS THE
HIGH RETREATS. READINGS WILL BE MOSTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     74  43  69  52 /  50  10  10  30
CAMDEN AR         75  48  77  62 /  60  20  10  40
HARRISON AR       65  41  70  51 /  10   0   0  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    74  45  75  57 /  40  10  10  30
LITTLE ROCK   AR  74  45  73  56 /  50  10  10  40
MONTICELLO AR     76  51  77  62 /  60  20  10  40
MOUNT IDA AR      73  43  75  56 /  30  10  10  30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  69  40  69  51 /  10   0   0  30
NEWPORT AR        73  43  70  53 /  50  10  10  40
PINE BLUFF AR     74  47  75  60 /  60  20  10  40
RUSSELLVILLE AR   72  42  72  53 /  20  10  10  30
SEARCY AR         74  43  71  54 /  50  10  10  40
STUTTGART AR      74  45  73  58 /  60  10  10  40
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...62 / LONG TERM...46

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
425 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2012

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-291100-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
425 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ARKANSAS FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE
IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF
ARKANSAS TONIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...ALONG
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF ARKANSAS
WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL BE LOCATED
OVER WESTERN ARKANSAS. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY
EASTWARD AND IS EXPECTED TO BE SITUATED OVER SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS LATE
IN THE DAY. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
THE MAIN THREATS.

ON FRIDAY...ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE PLAINS AND BRING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO ARKANSAS. IT REMAINS TOO EARLY
TO DETERMINE THE EXACT THREAT FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER...BUT THIS
PERIOD WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY IN THE COMING DAYS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

51/44

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
339 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 AM     HAIL             MOUNTAIN HOME           36.34N 92.38W
02/29/2012  E1.25 INCH       BAXTER             AR   PUBLIC

0320 AM     HAIL             5 W VIOLA               36.40N 92.07W
02/29/2012  E0.88 INCH       FULTON             AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

46

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
343 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0325 AM     HAIL             NORFORK                 36.21N 92.28W
02/29/2012  E1.00 INCH       BAXTER             AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HAIL RANGED IN SIZE FROM PENNY TO QUARTER.

&&

46