Severe Thunderstorm Warning 43, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
815 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2012

.UPDATE...

MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO POPS FOR THE NEXT 4-6 HOURS AND ALSO TO
OVERNIGHT LOWS. REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE
COLD FRONT IN WRN OKLAHOMA HAS NOW OVER TAKEN THE DRYLINE...RESULTING
IN AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
MEANWHILE THERE HAS BEEN SOME INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE NERN QUARTER OF ARKANSAS THIS EVENING...THOUGH ONLY A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN NOTED. UPDATED POPS TO REFLECT ONGOING
PRECIP ACROSS NERN ARKANSAS...WITH MENTION OF ISOLD TO SCT
THUNDER. GOING BACK WEST...DEVELOPING LINE OF TSTMS IN OKLAHOMA
SHOULD MAKE NWRN ARKANSAS BY SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. POPS AFTER
MIDNIGHT REFLECT DEFINITE SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THE NORTH SO THAT
LOOKS GOOD.

AS FOR TEMPS...BUMPED UP OVERNIGHT LOWS A TAD...WITH THE BIGGEST
CHANGE IN THE NORTHWEST. CLOUD COVER AND WARM ADVECTION INTO THE
STATE SHOULD KEEP TEMPS NEARLY STEADY NEAR THEIR CURRENT READINGS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE NO NOTABLE CHANGES WERE MADE OR
NEEDED FOR THAT MATTER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 556 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2012/

AVIATION...29/00Z TAF CYCLE

MAINLY MVFR CIGS WL PREVAIL ACRS THE FA THRU THE OVERNIGHT HRS.
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DVLP LATER THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A CDFNT
THAT WL APCH WRN AR. VEERING WINDS WL INCRS AS WELL...WITH LLWS
INDCD AT NRN AND CNTRL AR TAF SITES THRU THE EARLY MRNG HRS. FNTL
BNDRY WL WORK INTO CNTRL AR WED MRNG AND INTO SERN AR BY THE END
OF THE PD. SCTD SHRA/TSRA WL CONT VCNTY OF THE CDFNT WED...WITH
VFR CONDS RETURNING BEHIND FROPA AS GUSTY WEST WINDS USHER DRIER
AIR INTO THE REGION. /44/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2012/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
WARM FRONT HAS MOVED NORTH OF I40 THIS AFTERNOON...WITH DEWPOINTS
RISING INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. HOWEVER...A CAP HAS LEFT PLENTY
OF CLOUD COVER TRAPPED...AND TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY SLOW
TO WARM. A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE EAST
LATER TONIGHT...AND BE THE SPARK NEEDED TO BREAK CAP AND BRING
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

THE SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM HAS SLOWED A FEW HOURS FROM THE THINKING
MONDAY...WITH THE FRONT NOT ENTERING WESTERN ARKANSAS UNTIL CLOSE TO
MIDNIGHT. DUE TO THE FRONT CROSSING DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...THINK THAT SEVERE WEATHER WILL MAINLY CONSIST OF A LINE OF
STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT...PARTICULARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF
THE STATE.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING RAIN CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE. DUE TO THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVING SO
FAR NORTH...THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER NORTHERN LOUISIANA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND EVENTUALLY MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL THEN INTERACT WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM
MOVING ACROSS FRIDAY...BRINGING THE NEXT RAIN CHANCES.

DUE TO THE SLOWER NATURE OF THE FRONT...HAVE LOWERED HIGHS FOR
WEDNESDAY ABOUT A CATEGORY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY
WARM FOR THE LAST DAY OF FEBRUARY...WITH READINGS IN THE MID 60S TO
THE LOWER 70S.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
WEEKEND...WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER NOTED. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRY
TO MOVE IN...BUT WILL BE PUSHED BACK TO THE NORTH DUE TO THE HIGH.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST...WHICH
WILL ALLOW THE HIGH TO SHIFT EASTWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SLOWLY
INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

MODELS DIFFER A BIT TOWARD TUESDAY...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A DRY
SOLUTION...AND THE GFS SHOWING A GREAT DEAL OF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE
RETURN...AND PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING AS AN UPPER WAVE MAKES ITS WAY
UP IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. FOR NOW...STUCK WITH A DRY FORECAST DUE
TO MODEL VARIABILITY THAT FAR OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     63  63  70  42 /  20  80  40  10
CAMDEN AR         73  65  72  45 /  30  50  60  20
HARRISON AR       62  58  67  39 /  20  80  20   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    66  64  71  43 /  30  60  40  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  66  64  71  44 /  30  60  50  10
MONTICELLO AR     69  65  73  48 /  30  50  60  20
MOUNT IDA AR      64  63  71  42 /  30  60  30  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  65  59  68  40 /  20  80  20   0
NEWPORT AR        65  63  71  43 /  20  80  40  10
PINE BLUFF AR     69  65  72  46 /  30  50  60  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   63  61  70  40 /  30  70  30  10
SEARCY AR         64  63  71  43 /  20  70  40  10
STUTTGART AR      66  64  72  45 /  30  60  50  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

64

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
425 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2012

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-291100-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
425 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ARKANSAS FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE
IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF
ARKANSAS TONIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...ALONG
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF ARKANSAS
WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL BE LOCATED
OVER WESTERN ARKANSAS. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY
EASTWARD AND IS EXPECTED TO BE SITUATED OVER SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS LATE
IN THE DAY. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
THE MAIN THREATS.

ON FRIDAY...ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE PLAINS AND BRING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO ARKANSAS. IT REMAINS TOO EARLY
TO DETERMINE THE EXACT THREAT FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER...BUT THIS
PERIOD WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY IN THE COMING DAYS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

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