Alert archive / Oklahoma / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 173

February 28, 201215 counties in Kansas; 15 counties in Missouri; 24 counties in Oklahoma

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 28, 2012, 9:47 PM CST for 15 counties in Kansas; 15 counties in Missouri; 24 counties in Oklahoma. It was in force for 58 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Feb 28, 2012, 9:47 PM CST (03:47 UTC)
Expired
Feb 28, 2012, 10:45 PM CST
In force
58 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 54 counties

Allen County, KS, Anderson County, KS, Bourbon County, KS, Cherokee County, KS, Crawford County, KS, Franklin County, KS, Johnson County, KS, Labette County, KS, Leavenworth County, KS, Linn County, KS, Miami County, KS, Montgomery County, KS, Neosho County, KS, Wilson County, KS, Wyandotte County, KS, Bates County, MO, Buchanan County, MO, Caldwell County, MO, Carroll County, MO, Cass County, MO, Clay County, MO, Clinton County, MO, Daviess County, MO, DeKalb County, MO, Jackson County, MO, Johnson County, MO, Lafayette County, MO, Platte County, MO, Ray County, MO, Vernon County, MO, Cleveland County, OK, Craig County, OK, Creek County, OK, Garvin County, OK, Hughes County, OK, Lincoln County, OK, Mayes County, OK, McClain County, OK, Murray County, OK, Nowata County, OK, Okfuskee County, OK, Oklahoma County, OK, Okmulgee County, OK, Osage County, OK, Pawnee County, OK, Payne County, OK, Pontotoc County, OK, Pottawatomie County, OK, Rogers County, OK, Seminole County, OK, Stephens County, OK, Tulsa County, OK, Wagoner County, OK, Washington County, OK

The radar

The Tulsa radar (KINX), 101 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 03:50 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Lamont, OK (KLMN), launched 00:00Z, 3.8 hours before the alert went out and 157 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Lamont, OK at 00:00Z on 2012-02-29Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 386 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Lamont, OK at 00:00Z on 2012-02-29The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 369 square meters per square second.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
386 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-76 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
660 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
77 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
369 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
461 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.8
Supercell composite
2.3

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

547 
ACUS11 KWNS 290348
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290347
MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-290445-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0173
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0947 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS...WRN MO...CNTRL/ERN OK

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 41...

VALID 290347Z - 290445Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 41 CONTINUES.

PRIMARILY A DAMAGING WIND THREAT PERSISTS WITH QLCS EXTENDING FROM
ERN KS INTO N-CNTRL OK...WITH A HISTORY OF MEASURED SEVERE WIND
GUSTS ACROSS S-CNTRL KS/N-CNTRL OK. A MORE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
RISK AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO MAY DEVELOP INTO PORTIONS OF WRN MO
ALONG THE NRN PORTION OF THE LINE...AND SWWD OF THE LINE ACROSS
CNTRL OK. AREAS DOWNSTREAM OF WW 41 ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE
WW ISSUANCE OR LOCAL WFO EXTENSIONS.

NRN PORTION OF QLCS HAS ESSENTIALLY OVERTAKEN AND PINCHED OFF THE
RICHER WARM SECTOR...WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS AOA THE UPPER 50S
REMAINING RELEGATED FROM SERN KS ON SWD. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF
60-70 KT SWLYS AROUND 1 KM AGL PER AREA VWP AND PROFILER DATA...A
MEAGERLY BUOYANT DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS ACROSS MOST OF W-CNTRL/NWRN MO
SHOULD MITIGATE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS/TORNADOES BEYOND A
LOCALIZED/BRIEF THREAT.

FARTHER SW ACROSS SERN KS INTO NERN OK...A BROADER WARM SECTOR AND
STRONGER SURFACE PRESSURE RISE/FALL COUPLET WILL REMAIN CONDUCIVE TO
SCATTERED SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND POTENTIALLY A TORNADO OR TWO.

ADDITIONAL CU/SMALL CB DEVELOPMENT IS APPARENT DOWN TO THE RED
RIVER. ALTHOUGH REMOVED FROM THE LARGER INFLUENCE OF THE CNTRL
PLAINS SHORT WAVE TROUGH...70-80 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT A
RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS/BRIEF TORNADOES SHOULD TSTM DEVELOPMENT
BECOME SUSTAINED.

..GRAMS.. 02/29/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON   34479827 35019777 36609676 37329603 39229506 39929476
            40149401 39549343 38709366 37359445 34849618 34289681
            34479827

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 28, 7:57 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCButler, Chase, Chautauqua, Cowley, Elk, Greenwood and 9 more48 min
Feb 28, 7:59 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClay, Cloud, Jewell, Mitchell, Osborne, Ottawa and 5 more31 min
Feb 28, 8:10 PM CSTTornado WatchSPCAllen, Anderson, Brown, Butler, Chase, Chautauqua and 25 more5 hr
Feb 28, 10:07 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCJohnson, Linn, Miami, Wyandotte3 hr
Feb 28, 10:30 PM CSTTornado WatchSPCBourbon, Cherokee, Crawford6 hr
Feb 28, 8:23 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtchison, Holt, Nodaway37 min
Feb 28, 11:40 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarry, Camden, Cedar, Christian, Dade, Dallas and 13 more95 min
Feb 29, 12:49 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBollinger, Butler, Cape Girardeau, Carter, Dunklin, Franklin and 19 more56 min
Feb 29, 1:14 AM CSTTornado WatchSPCBollinger, Butler, Cape Girardeau, Carter, Crawford, Franklin and 19 more11 hr
Feb 29, 3:20 AM CSTTornado WatchSPCDunklin, Pemiscot9 hr
Feb 29, 3:53 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBollinger, Butler, Cape Girardeau, Carter, Dunklin, Madison and 9 more97 min
Feb 29, 8:07 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCDunklin, Mississippi, New Madrid, Pemiscot53 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.