Alert archive / Virginia / Prince William County
Weather alerts in Prince William County, Virginia, 2018
102 weather alerts in 2018, from the National Weather Service and the Storm Prediction Center. An alert counts here when it covered this county.
Prince William County and its neighbors
Each county as a circle sized by its count in 2018. Tap one for its archive.
- Alerts
- 102
- Warnings
- 61
- Watches
- 8
- Advisories
- 0
- Busiest month
- May28 alerts
- Busiest day
- May 14, 20187 alerts
Over time
By month
Warning verification
How often warnings here had a storm report inside them, and how much warning the reports had.
Prince William County, 2018
| Warnings | With a report | False alarm ratio | Reports | Inside a warning | Mean lead time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tornado warnings | 0 | 0 | ||||
| Severe thunderstorm warnings | 18 | 10 | 44% | 18 | 67% | 16 min |
| Flash flood warnings | 4 | 3 | 25% | 3 | 67% | 101 min |
Each office's whole area, 2018
| Warnings | With a report | False alarm ratio | Reports | Inside a warning | Mean lead time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NWS Baltimore/Washington: tornado warnings | 19 | 1 | 95% | 4 | 25% | 1 min |
| NWS Baltimore/Washington: severe thunderstorm warnings | 312 | 208 | 33% | 690 | 70% | 20 min |
| NWS Baltimore/Washington: flash flood warnings | 87 | 38 | 56% | 129 | 89% | 103 min |
An office's figures cover every county it serves, including across state lines.
Verified by the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow, which matches each storm-based warning with the local storm reports inside its polygon while it was in force, within 15 km of its edge: a tornado warning counts as verified on a tornado report, a severe thunderstorm warning on hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more, or wind damage, a flash flood warning on a flash flood report. The false alarm ratio is the share of warnings with no such report; "inside a warning" is the probability of detection, the share of reports that fell inside one; lead time runs from the warning's issue to each report inside it, counting zero for a report that came first. A warning with no report is not proof nothing happened: reports come from spotters, the public and damage surveys, and are thin where few people live.
The alerts
Every alert, in the order issued. Times are local, Eastern Time. Each opens its own page with the text, the map, the radar and the sounding.
| Issued | Product | Office | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 11, 6:02 AM EST | Areal Flood Warning | LWX | 6 hr |
| Mar 1, 10:37 PM EST | Special Weather Statement | LWX | 7 hr |
| Mar 20, 10:00 AM EDT | Special Weather Statement | LWX | 15 min |
| Apr 16, 6:19 AM EDT | Areal Flood Warning | LWX | 4 hr |
| Apr 16, 9:08 AM EDT | Areal Flood Warning | LWX | 7 hr |
| Apr 16, 4:19 PM EDT | Areal Flood Warning | LWX | 4 hr |
| May 10, 12:36 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 114 min |
| May 10, 1:14 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | 8 hr |
| May 10, 4:53 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 67 min |
| May 10, 5:48 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | 42 min |
| May 10, 6:24 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | 53 min |
| May 13, 1:56 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 2 hr |
| May 13, 4:28 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | 7 hr |
| May 13, 6:39 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | 24 min |
| May 13, 7:00 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 60 min |
| May 14, 11:56 AM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 64 min |
| May 14, 12:29 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | 9 hr |
| May 14, 3:26 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 2 hr |
| May 14, 5:35 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | 55 min |
| May 14, 6:07 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | 53 min |
| May 14, 6:11 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | 79 min |
| May 14, 7:00 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | 30 min |
| May 15, 5:43 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 92 min |
| May 15, 5:54 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | 4 hr |
| May 15, 8:41 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 94 min |
| May 19, 1:37 AM EDT | Areal Flood Warning | LWX | 15 hr |
| May 22, 1:52 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 113 min |
| May 22, 2:33 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | 6 hr |
| May 22, 4:43 PM EDT | Areal Flood Warning | LWX | 4 hr |
| May 22, 4:48 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | 42 min |
| May 22, 4:50 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 115 min |
| May 27, 1:29 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 3 hr |
| May 31, 4:44 PM EDT | Areal Flood Warning | LWX | 2 hr |
| May 31, 7:50 PM EDT | Areal Flood Warning | LWX | 115 min |
| May 31, 11:49 PM EDT | Areal Flood Warning | LWX | 8 hr |
| Jun 2, 1:05 AM EDT | Areal Flood Warning | LWX | 71 min |
| Jun 2, 3:22 PM EDT | Areal Flood Warning | LWX | 10 hr |
| Jun 3, 1:56 PM EDT | Areal Flood Warning | LWX | 14 hr |
| Jun 3, 2:44 PM EDT | Areal Flood Warning | LWX | 7 hr |
| Jun 9, 1:34 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 2 hr |
| Jun 9, 9:26 PM EDT | Areal Flood Warning | LWX | 100 min |
| Jun 10, 3:23 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 2 hr |
| Jun 19, 12:04 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 116 min |
| Jun 19, 2:32 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | 28 min |
| Jun 23, 5:12 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | 48 min |
| Jun 23, 5:40 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 2 hr |
| Jun 23, 5:42 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | 48 min |
| Jun 24, 5:18 AM EDT | Areal Flood Warning | LWX | 5 hr |
| Jun 24, 2:04 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 116 min |
| Jun 27, 7:37 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 3 hr |
| Jul 21, 4:41 PM EDT | Areal Flood Warning | LWX | 27 hr |
| Jul 21, 7:23 PM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | LWX | 3 hr |
| Jul 21, 9:29 PM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | LWX | 3 hr |
| Jul 23, 2:57 AM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 3 hr |
| Jul 23, 2:40 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 3 hr |
| Jul 24, 6:14 AM EDT | Areal Flood Warning | LWX | 8 hr |
| Jul 25, 4:41 PM EDT | Areal Flood Warning | LWX | 21 hr |
| Jul 25, 5:56 PM EDT | Areal Flood Warning | LWX | 11 hr |
| Jul 25, 6:25 PM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | LWX | 3 hr |
| Jul 27, 1:28 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 62 min |
| Jul 27, 1:52 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | 7 hr |
| Jul 27, 2:23 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | 29 min |
| Jul 27, 4:50 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 55 min |
| Jul 27, 5:02 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | 23 min |
| Jul 27, 7:06 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 54 min |
| Aug 1, 1:24 AM EDT | Areal Flood Warning | LWX | 11 hr |
| Aug 1, 11:43 AM EDT | Areal Flood Warning | LWX | 15 hr |
| Aug 1, 11:05 PM EDT | Areal Flood Warning | LWX | 4 hr |
| Aug 1, 11:05 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | 25 min |
| Aug 2, 3:35 AM EDT | Areal Flood Warning | LWX | 5 hr |
| Aug 2, 11:46 AM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 119 min |
| Aug 2, 1:55 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | 50 min |
| Aug 2, 2:22 PM EDT | Areal Flood Warning | LWX | 5 hr |
| Aug 2, 10:28 PM EDT | Areal Flood Warning | LWX | 7 hr |
| Aug 3, 11:54 PM EDT | Areal Flood Warning | LWX | 6 hr |
| Aug 13, 1:57 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 3 hr |
| Aug 13, 3:46 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | 44 min |
| Aug 17, 3:10 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 3 hr |
| Aug 21, 1:16 PM EDT | Areal Flood Warning | LWX | 21 hr |
| Aug 21, 6:09 PM EDT | Areal Flood Warning | LWX | 6 hr |
| Aug 21, 7:06 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 84 min |
| Aug 21, 10:29 PM EDT | Areal Flood Warning | LWX | 6 hr |
| Aug 31, 11:42 PM EDT | Areal Flood Warning | LWX | 6 hr |
| Sep 1, 4:39 AM EDT | Areal Flood Warning | LWX | 4 hr |
| Sep 17, 3:42 PM EDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | 4 hr |
| Sep 17, 7:09 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 2 hr |
| Sep 26, 3:40 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 3 hr |
| Sep 26, 5:02 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | 4 hr |
| Sep 26, 5:31 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | 26 min |
| Sep 28, 4:58 AM EDT | Areal Flood Warning | LWX | 16 hr |
| Oct 11, 5:47 PM EDT | Areal Flood Warning | LWX | 4 hr |
| Oct 11, 6:23 PM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | LWX | 3 hr |
| Oct 11, 9:14 PM EDT | Areal Flood Warning | LWX | 5 hr |
| Nov 2, 6:55 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 95 min |
| Nov 15, 3:18 AM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 6 hr |
| Nov 16, 12:41 AM EST | Areal Flood Warning | LWX | 15 hr |
| Nov 16, 4:23 AM EST | Areal Flood Warning | LWX | 6 hr |
| Nov 25, 2:07 AM EST | Areal Flood Warning | LWX | 5 hr |
| Nov 25, 7:27 AM EST | Areal Flood Warning | LWX | 3 hr |
| Dec 15, 1:38 PM EST | Areal Flood Warning | LWX | 33 hr |
| Dec 21, 2:33 PM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 57 min |
| Dec 21, 4:00 PM EST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | 45 min |
By product
Every kind of product issued here, grouped by hazard. Each opens the same place narrowed to that product.
| Product | Alerts |
|---|---|
| Severe storms | |
| Severe Thunderstorm Warning | 18 |
| Severe Thunderstorm Watch | 7 |
| Tornado Watch | 1 |
| Mesoscale Discussion | 31 |
| Special Weather Statement | 2 |
| Flooding | |
| Areal Flood Warning | 39 |
| Flash Flood Warning | 4 |
The busiest days
Days with the most alerts issued, by UTC date.
Nearby
Alerts in force nowTornadoes on recordForecastThe radar archive20172019
Sources
National Weather Service watches, warnings, advisories and statements from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's VTEC archive, which reconstructs tornado, severe thunderstorm, flash flood and marine warnings back to 1986 from the NWS text archive. Storm Prediction Center watches and mesoscale discussions from SPC's archive through the Mesonet. County centers from the US Census Bureau. Warning verification from the Mesonet's Cow. Rebuilt daily.