Alert archive / Virginia / Prince William County

Weather alerts in Prince William County, Virginia, 2018

102 weather alerts in 2018, from the National Weather Service and the Storm Prediction Center. An alert counts here when it covered this county.

Prince William County and its neighbors

Each county as a circle sized by its count in 2018. Tap one for its archive.

Alerts
102
Warnings
61
Watches
8
Advisories
0
Busiest month
May28 alerts
Busiest day
May 14, 20187 alerts

Over time

By month

Warning verification

How often warnings here had a storm report inside them, and how much warning the reports had.

Prince William County, 2018

WarningsWith a reportFalse alarm ratioReportsInside a warningMean lead time
Tornado warnings00
Severe thunderstorm warnings181044%1867%16 min
Flash flood warnings4325%367%101 min

Each office's whole area, 2018

WarningsWith a reportFalse alarm ratioReportsInside a warningMean lead time
NWS Baltimore/Washington: tornado warnings19195%425%1 min
NWS Baltimore/Washington: severe thunderstorm warnings31220833%69070%20 min
NWS Baltimore/Washington: flash flood warnings873856%12989%103 min

An office's figures cover every county it serves, including across state lines.

Verified by the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow, which matches each storm-based warning with the local storm reports inside its polygon while it was in force, within 15 km of its edge: a tornado warning counts as verified on a tornado report, a severe thunderstorm warning on hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more, or wind damage, a flash flood warning on a flash flood report. The false alarm ratio is the share of warnings with no such report; "inside a warning" is the probability of detection, the share of reports that fell inside one; lead time runs from the warning's issue to each report inside it, counting zero for a report that came first. A warning with no report is not proof nothing happened: reports come from spotters, the public and damage surveys, and are thin where few people live.

The alerts

Every alert, in the order issued. Times are local, Eastern Time. Each opens its own page with the text, the map, the radar and the sounding.

IssuedProductOfficeLasted
Feb 11, 6:02 AM ESTAreal Flood WarningLWX6 hr
Mar 1, 10:37 PM ESTSpecial Weather StatementLWX7 hr
Mar 20, 10:00 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementLWX15 min
Apr 16, 6:19 AM EDTAreal Flood WarningLWX4 hr
Apr 16, 9:08 AM EDTAreal Flood WarningLWX7 hr
Apr 16, 4:19 PM EDTAreal Flood WarningLWX4 hr
May 10, 12:36 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPC114 min
May 10, 1:14 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPC8 hr
May 10, 4:53 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPC67 min
May 10, 5:48 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWX42 min
May 10, 6:24 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWX53 min
May 13, 1:56 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPC2 hr
May 13, 4:28 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPC7 hr
May 13, 6:39 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWX24 min
May 13, 7:00 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPC60 min
May 14, 11:56 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPC64 min
May 14, 12:29 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPC9 hr
May 14, 3:26 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPC2 hr
May 14, 5:35 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWX55 min
May 14, 6:07 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWX53 min
May 14, 6:11 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWX79 min
May 14, 7:00 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWX30 min
May 15, 5:43 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPC92 min
May 15, 5:54 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPC4 hr
May 15, 8:41 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPC94 min
May 19, 1:37 AM EDTAreal Flood WarningLWX15 hr
May 22, 1:52 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPC113 min
May 22, 2:33 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPC6 hr
May 22, 4:43 PM EDTAreal Flood WarningLWX4 hr
May 22, 4:48 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWX42 min
May 22, 4:50 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPC115 min
May 27, 1:29 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPC3 hr
May 31, 4:44 PM EDTAreal Flood WarningLWX2 hr
May 31, 7:50 PM EDTAreal Flood WarningLWX115 min
May 31, 11:49 PM EDTAreal Flood WarningLWX8 hr
Jun 2, 1:05 AM EDTAreal Flood WarningLWX71 min
Jun 2, 3:22 PM EDTAreal Flood WarningLWX10 hr
Jun 3, 1:56 PM EDTAreal Flood WarningLWX14 hr
Jun 3, 2:44 PM EDTAreal Flood WarningLWX7 hr
Jun 9, 1:34 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPC2 hr
Jun 9, 9:26 PM EDTAreal Flood WarningLWX100 min
Jun 10, 3:23 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPC2 hr
Jun 19, 12:04 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPC116 min
Jun 19, 2:32 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWX28 min
Jun 23, 5:12 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWX48 min
Jun 23, 5:40 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPC2 hr
Jun 23, 5:42 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWX48 min
Jun 24, 5:18 AM EDTAreal Flood WarningLWX5 hr
Jun 24, 2:04 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPC116 min
Jun 27, 7:37 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPC3 hr
Jul 21, 4:41 PM EDTAreal Flood WarningLWX27 hr
Jul 21, 7:23 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningLWX3 hr
Jul 21, 9:29 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningLWX3 hr
Jul 23, 2:57 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPC3 hr
Jul 23, 2:40 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPC3 hr
Jul 24, 6:14 AM EDTAreal Flood WarningLWX8 hr
Jul 25, 4:41 PM EDTAreal Flood WarningLWX21 hr
Jul 25, 5:56 PM EDTAreal Flood WarningLWX11 hr
Jul 25, 6:25 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningLWX3 hr
Jul 27, 1:28 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPC62 min
Jul 27, 1:52 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPC7 hr
Jul 27, 2:23 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWX29 min
Jul 27, 4:50 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPC55 min
Jul 27, 5:02 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWX23 min
Jul 27, 7:06 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPC54 min
Aug 1, 1:24 AM EDTAreal Flood WarningLWX11 hr
Aug 1, 11:43 AM EDTAreal Flood WarningLWX15 hr
Aug 1, 11:05 PM EDTAreal Flood WarningLWX4 hr
Aug 1, 11:05 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWX25 min
Aug 2, 3:35 AM EDTAreal Flood WarningLWX5 hr
Aug 2, 11:46 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPC119 min
Aug 2, 1:55 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWX50 min
Aug 2, 2:22 PM EDTAreal Flood WarningLWX5 hr
Aug 2, 10:28 PM EDTAreal Flood WarningLWX7 hr
Aug 3, 11:54 PM EDTAreal Flood WarningLWX6 hr
Aug 13, 1:57 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPC3 hr
Aug 13, 3:46 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWX44 min
Aug 17, 3:10 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPC3 hr
Aug 21, 1:16 PM EDTAreal Flood WarningLWX21 hr
Aug 21, 6:09 PM EDTAreal Flood WarningLWX6 hr
Aug 21, 7:06 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPC84 min
Aug 21, 10:29 PM EDTAreal Flood WarningLWX6 hr
Aug 31, 11:42 PM EDTAreal Flood WarningLWX6 hr
Sep 1, 4:39 AM EDTAreal Flood WarningLWX4 hr
Sep 17, 3:42 PM EDTTornado WatchSPC4 hr
Sep 17, 7:09 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPC2 hr
Sep 26, 3:40 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPC3 hr
Sep 26, 5:02 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPC4 hr
Sep 26, 5:31 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWX26 min
Sep 28, 4:58 AM EDTAreal Flood WarningLWX16 hr
Oct 11, 5:47 PM EDTAreal Flood WarningLWX4 hr
Oct 11, 6:23 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningLWX3 hr
Oct 11, 9:14 PM EDTAreal Flood WarningLWX5 hr
Nov 2, 6:55 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPC95 min
Nov 15, 3:18 AM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPC6 hr
Nov 16, 12:41 AM ESTAreal Flood WarningLWX15 hr
Nov 16, 4:23 AM ESTAreal Flood WarningLWX6 hr
Nov 25, 2:07 AM ESTAreal Flood WarningLWX5 hr
Nov 25, 7:27 AM ESTAreal Flood WarningLWX3 hr
Dec 15, 1:38 PM ESTAreal Flood WarningLWX33 hr
Dec 21, 2:33 PM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPC57 min
Dec 21, 4:00 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWX45 min

By product

Every kind of product issued here, grouped by hazard. Each opens the same place narrowed to that product.

The busiest days

Days with the most alerts issued, by UTC date.

Nearby

Alerts in force nowTornadoes on recordForecastThe radar archive20172019

Sources

National Weather Service watches, warnings, advisories and statements from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's VTEC archive, which reconstructs tornado, severe thunderstorm, flash flood and marine warnings back to 1986 from the NWS text archive. Storm Prediction Center watches and mesoscale discussions from SPC's archive through the Mesonet. County centers from the US Census Bureau. Warning verification from the Mesonet's Cow. Rebuilt daily.