Alert archive / Missouri / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 1082
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 24, 2021, 6:19 PM CDT for 9 counties in Iowa; Doniphan County, Wyandotte County, Kansas; 23 counties in Missouri. It was in force for 56 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 24, 2021, 6:19 PM CDT (23:19 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 24, 2021, 7:15 PM CDT
- In force
- 56 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch likely
- Chance of a watch
- 95%
All 34 counties
Appanoose County, IA, Clarke County, IA, Davis County, IA, Decatur County, IA, Lucas County, IA, Monroe County, IA, Ringgold County, IA, Taylor County, IA, Wayne County, IA, Doniphan County, KS, Wyandotte County, KS, Adair County, MO, Andrew County, MO, Buchanan County, MO, Caldwell County, MO, Carroll County, MO, Clay County, MO, Clinton County, MO, Daviess County, MO, DeKalb County, MO, Gentry County, MO, Grundy County, MO, Harrison County, MO, Holt County, MO, Linn County, MO, Livingston County, MO, Mercer County, MO, Nodaway County, MO, Platte County, MO, Putnam County, MO, Ray County, MO, Schuyler County, MO, Sullivan County, MO, Worth County, MO
The radar
The Pleasant Hill radar (KEAX), 129 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:21 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Topeka, KS (KTOP), launched 12:00Z, 11.3 hours before the alert went out and 172 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 2072 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -283 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 688 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 26 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 342 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 386 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.2
The text
As transmitted.
618
ACUS11 KWNS 242319
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242319
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-250015-
Mesoscale Discussion 1082
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0619 PM CDT Thu Jun 24 2021
Areas affected...Northern missouri and southern Iowa
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 242319Z - 250015Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...Severe storms will be likely this evening ahead of a
frontal boundary across northern Missouri and southern Iowa. The
main threats are expected to be damaging winds and large hail,
though a tornado or two will be possible. A new weather watch is
likely needed.
DISCUSSION...2300z visible satellite imagery showed several new
thunderstorms developing along and north of a frontal zone from
northern Missouri through southern Iowa. These storms are ongoing in
an environment characterized by 2000-3500 J/kg of MCLAPE and 30 to
40 kts of effective shear. To the north of the front, low-level
shear is substantially weaker as sampled by the DMX VWP suggesting
more of a wind and hail threat for eastward extent. Some initial
tornado threat may also exists across portions of northwestern
Missouri with supercells upstream over eastern Kansas. Additional
storm development along the front will likely result in upscale
growth with a greater threat of wind and hail this evening. A new
watch will be needed shortly.
..Lyons/Grams.. 06/24/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...
LAT...LON 39059495 39759525 40429532 40849495 41089368 41079273
40669218 40059254 39489340 39089409 38949475 39059495SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 23, 8:10 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Monona, Plymouth, Woodbury | 95 min |
| Jun 23, 10:12 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Harrison, Mills, Monona, Pottawattamie | 93 min |
| Jun 23, 10:37 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Fremont, Harrison, Mills, Monona, Pottawattamie, Shelby and 1 more | 6 hr |
| Jun 24, 1:36 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adams, Cass, Fremont, Harrison, Mills, Montgomery and 4 more | 114 min |
| Jun 24, 2:20 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Adair, Adams, Audubon, Boone, Carroll, Cass and 15 more | 6 hr |
| Jun 24, 5:02 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Appanoose, Clarke, Davis, Decatur, Lucas, Madison and 8 more | 118 min |
| Jun 24, 3:44 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Fremont, Page | 5 hr |
| Jun 24, 5:30 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Fremont, Page | 60 min |
| Jun 24, 6:33 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Adams, Appanoose, Clarke, Davis, Decatur, Lucas and 6 more | 3 hr |
| Jun 24, 2:45 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Atchison, Brown, Douglas, Jackson, Jefferson, Leavenworth and 7 more | 3 hr |
| Jun 24, 2:49 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Cheyenne, Logan, Rawlins, Sherman, Thomas, Wallace | 116 min |
| Jun 24, 3:14 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Gray, Haskell, Meade, Seward | 91 min |
| Jun 24, 4:56 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Cheyenne, Decatur, Finney, Gove, Grant, Gray and 13 more | 6 hr |
| Jun 24, 6:31 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Cheyenne, Greeley, Hamilton, Kearny, Lane, Logan and 6 more | 119 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Iowa, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.