Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 1076
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 24, 2021, 2:45 PM CDT for 13 counties in Kansas; 5 counties in Nebraska. It was in force for 3 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 24, 2021, 2:45 PM CDT (19:45 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 24, 2021, 5:15 PM CDT
- In force
- 3 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...tornado watch likely
- Chance of a watch
- 80%
Counties Atchison County, KS, Brown County, KS, Douglas County, KS, Jackson County, KS, Jefferson County, KS, Leavenworth County, KS, Marshall County, KS, Nemaha County, KS, Pottawatomie County, KS, Riley County, KS, Shawnee County, KS, Wabaunsee County, KS, Washington County, KS, Gage County, NE, Jefferson County, NE, Johnson County, NE, Pawnee County, NE, Richardson County, NE
The radar
The Topeka radar (KTWX), 79 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:45 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Topeka, KS (KTOP), launched 12:00Z, 7.8 hours before the alert went out and 93 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 2072 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -283 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 688 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 26 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 342 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 386 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.2
The text
As transmitted.
609
ACUS11 KWNS 241946
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241945
MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-242215-
Mesoscale Discussion 1076
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0245 PM CDT Thu Jun 24 2021
Areas affected...southeast NE...northeast KS
Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely
Valid 241945Z - 242215Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...A tornado watch is likely this afternoon for much of this
area.
DISCUSSION...Visible-satellite imagery shows a capped cumulus field
across east-central KS. A few storms have recently developed over
eastern KS on the north side of a modifying outflow boundary draped
from southeast KS arcing northwest into northeast KS. Surface
temperatures have warmed into the upper 80s across northeast KS,
whereas persistent cloud cover over west-central MO in wake of an
earlier MCS, has limited heating with temperatures only in the
mid-upper 70s.
The Topeka, KS 2pm raob shows a supercell wind profile with a
capped, warm/moist boundary layer. Comparing the observed Topeka
raob versus the 1-hr 18z run of the RAP valid at 19z, showed a
slightly warmer and drier boundary layer (17 g/kg lowest 100 mb mean
mixing ratio vs. 18.6 g/kg). Using an internal dynamics method
(Bunkers) motion estimate, around 150-200 m2/s2 0-1km SRH was noted
both in the observed raob and the Topeka 88D VAD data.
Current forecast thinking is for convective initiation to prefer the
synoptic wind shift over southern NE late this afternoon. Isolated
storms could develop farther south over northeast KS but uncertainty
is high for this scenario. Eventually scattered thunderstorms will
probably develop over the lower MO Valley during the evening. A
supercell threat with associated hazards will probably transition to
an high-precipitation supercell and later a squall line/bowing
segment evolution.
..Smith/Hart.. 06/24/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...
LAT...LON 40539675 40249734 39729743 38969632 38789560 38949500
39329489 40349590 40539675SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 24, 1:36 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Atchison, Brown, Doniphan, Nemaha | 114 min |
| Jun 24, 2:20 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Atchison, Brown, Doniphan, Nemaha | 6 hr |
| Jun 24, 2:49 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Cheyenne, Logan, Rawlins, Sherman, Thomas, Wallace | 116 min |
| Jun 24, 3:14 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Gray, Haskell, Meade, Seward | 91 min |
| Jun 24, 3:44 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Atchison, Brown, Clay, Cloud, Doniphan, Jackson and 8 more | 5 hr |
| Jun 24, 4:56 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Cheyenne, Decatur, Finney, Gove, Grant, Gray and 13 more | 6 hr |
| Jun 24, 5:30 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Brown, Clay, Cloud, Doniphan, Marshall, Nemaha and 5 more | 60 min |
| Jun 24, 6:19 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Doniphan, Wyandotte | 56 min |
| Jun 24, 6:31 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Cheyenne, Greeley, Hamilton, Kearny, Lane, Logan and 6 more | 119 min |
| Jun 23, 8:10 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Antelope, Blaine, Boone, Boyd, Brown, Burt and 22 more | 95 min |
| Jun 23, 10:12 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Antelope, Blaine, Boone, Boyd, Brown, Buffalo and 39 more | 93 min |
| Jun 23, 10:37 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Antelope, Blaine, Boone, Brown, Buffalo, Burt and 38 more | 6 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Nebraska, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.