Alert archive / Nebraska / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 1071

June 23, 2021Monona County, Plymouth County, Woodbury County, Iowa; 28 counties in Nebraska; 11 counties in South Dakota

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 23, 2021, 8:10 PM CDT for Monona County, Plymouth County, Woodbury County, Iowa; 28 counties in Nebraska; 11 counties in South Dakota. It was in force for 95 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jun 23, 2021, 8:10 PM CDT (01:10 UTC)
Expired
Jun 23, 2021, 9:45 PM CDT
In force
95 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe thunderstorm watch 306
All 42 counties

Monona County, IA, Plymouth County, IA, Woodbury County, IA, Antelope County, NE, Blaine County, NE, Boone County, NE, Boyd County, NE, Brown County, NE, Burt County, NE, Cedar County, NE, Colfax County, NE, Cuming County, NE, Dakota County, NE, Dixon County, NE, Dodge County, NE, Garfield County, NE, Greeley County, NE, Holt County, NE, Keya Paha County, NE, Knox County, NE, Loup County, NE, Madison County, NE, Nance County, NE, Pierce County, NE, Platte County, NE, Rock County, NE, Stanton County, NE, Thurston County, NE, Valley County, NE, Wayne County, NE, Wheeler County, NE, Bon Homme County, SD, Charles Mix County, SD, Clay County, SD, Davison County, SD, Douglas County, SD, Gregory County, SD, Hutchinson County, SD, Lincoln County, SD, Turner County, SD, Union County, SD, Yankton County, SD

The radar

The Sioux Falls radar (KFSD), 171 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:09 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Omaha, NE (KOAX), launched 00:00Z, 1.2 hours before the alert went out and 198 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Omaha, NE at 00:00Z on 2021-06-24Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 2039 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Omaha, NE at 00:00Z on 2021-06-24The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 60 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
2039 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-306 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1664 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
44 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
60 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
168 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.4

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

724 
ACUS11 KWNS 240110
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240110 
IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-240245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1071
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0810 PM CDT Wed Jun 23 2021

Areas affected...parts of central and eastern
Nebraska...southeastern South Dakota...and far western Iowa

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 306...

Valid 240110Z - 240245Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 306
continues.

SUMMARY...Storms increasing in coverage/intensity -- likely in
response to the developing low-level jet -- suggest increasing
severe potential over the next couple of hours.  A new WW remains
likely to be needed east of ongoing activity.

DISCUSSION...After a brief decreasing trend in ongoing convection,
storms have begun to increase in both coverage and intensity once
again -- mainly across north-central Nebraska and into south-central
and southeastern South Dakota.  The convective uptick is apparently
in response to increasing QG forcing, as a subtle feature aloft
shifts into the Plains, along with associated/accompanying low-level
jet increase.  While low-level capping hindered more widespread
diurnal surface-based activity, continued increases in slightly
elevated but robust convection are expected.  As convection shifts
eastward/southeastward with time, a new WW east of WW 306 remains a
likelihood this evening.

..Goss.. 06/24/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR...

LAT...LON   41479987 42870055 43549929 43679875 43729817 43469656
            42499560 41779571 41509690 41309875 41479987

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 23, 10:12 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCHarrison, Mills, Monona, Pottawattamie93 min
Jun 23, 10:37 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCFremont, Harrison, Mills, Monona, Pottawattamie, Shelby and 1 more6 hr
Jun 24, 1:36 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdams, Cass, Fremont, Harrison, Mills, Montgomery and 4 more114 min
Jun 24, 2:20 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAdair, Adams, Audubon, Boone, Carroll, Cass and 15 more6 hr
Jun 24, 5:02 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAppanoose, Clarke, Davis, Decatur, Lucas, Madison and 8 more118 min
Jun 24, 3:44 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCFremont, Page5 hr
Jun 24, 5:30 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCFremont, Page60 min
Jun 24, 6:19 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAppanoose, Clarke, Davis, Decatur, Lucas, Monroe and 3 more56 min
Jun 24, 6:33 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCAdams, Appanoose, Clarke, Davis, Decatur, Lucas and 6 more3 hr
Jun 24, 2:45 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCGage, Jefferson, Johnson, Pawnee, Richardson3 hr
Jun 24, 4:56 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCDundy, Hitchcock6 hr
Jun 24, 3:37 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCLawrence83 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Nebraska, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in South Dakota, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Iowa, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.