Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 1079

June 24, 20214 counties in Kansas; Beaver County, Oklahoma; 8 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 24, 2021, 3:14 PM CDT for 4 counties in Kansas; Beaver County, Oklahoma; 8 counties in Texas. It was in force for 91 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jun 24, 2021, 3:14 PM CDT (20:14 UTC)
Expired
Jun 24, 2021, 4:45 PM CDT
In force
91 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe potential...watch unlikely
Chance of a watch
20%

Counties Gray County, KS, Haskell County, KS, Meade County, KS, Seward County, KS, Beaver County, OK, Carson County, TX, Hansford County, TX, Hutchinson County, TX, Lipscomb County, TX, Moore County, TX, Ochiltree County, TX, Potter County, TX, Roberts County, TX

The radar

The Amarillo radar (KAMA), 117 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:14 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Amarillo Airport, TX (KAMA), launched 12:00Z, 8.2 hours before the alert went out and 117 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Amarillo Airport, TX at 12:00Z on 2021-06-24Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 662 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Amarillo Airport, TX at 12:00Z on 2021-06-24The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 53 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
662 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-380 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
2406 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
1 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
53 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
67 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

035 
ACUS11 KWNS 242014
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242014 
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-242145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1079
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0314 PM CDT Thu Jun 24 2021

Areas affected...Portions of the TX/OK Panhandles into southwest
Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 242014Z - 242145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered strong to severe storms possible
through the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening.

DISCUSSION...A dryline extends from southwest Kansas, across the
Oklahoma Panhandle, and into the Texas Panhandle. Showers and weak
thunderstorms have developed along the dryline near Amarillo in the
past 30 minutes, likely aided by weak ascent ahead of an approaching
mid-level shortwave trough. 

There is considerable uncertainty regarding storm coverage/intensity
in this region. Convergence is mostly weak along the dryline and SPC
mesoanalysis suggests the environment is still mostly capped in the
region. Therefore, it is unclear whether strong/sustained convection
will be possible. However, if strong updrafts form, there will be a
threat of damaging winds given the very steep lapse rates and
well-mixed airmass. A watch may be needed if more widespread storm
development occurs or appears imminent.

..Bentley/Hart.. 06/24/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA...

LAT...LON   35140235 35440223 35910186 37060113 37680082 37930018
            37579990 37039979 36250009 35420079 34900146 35000214
            35140235

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 24, 1:36 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtchison, Brown, Doniphan, Nemaha114 min
Jun 24, 2:20 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAtchison, Brown, Doniphan, Nemaha6 hr
Jun 24, 2:45 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtchison, Brown, Douglas, Jackson, Jefferson, Leavenworth and 7 more3 hr
Jun 24, 2:49 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCheyenne, Logan, Rawlins, Sherman, Thomas, Wallace116 min
Jun 24, 3:44 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCAtchison, Brown, Clay, Cloud, Doniphan, Jackson and 8 more5 hr
Jun 24, 4:56 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCCheyenne, Decatur, Finney, Gove, Grant, Gray and 13 more6 hr
Jun 24, 5:30 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBrown, Clay, Cloud, Doniphan, Marshall, Nemaha and 5 more60 min
Jun 24, 6:19 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCDoniphan, Wyandotte56 min
Jun 24, 6:31 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCheyenne, Greeley, Hamilton, Kearny, Lane, Logan and 6 more119 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.