Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 1077
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 24, 2021, 1:49 PM MDT for 5 counties in Colorado; 6 counties in Kansas. It was in force for 116 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 24, 2021, 1:49 PM MDT (19:49 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 24, 2021, 3:45 PM MDT
- In force
- 116 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch possible
- Chance of a watch
- 40%
Counties Cheyenne County, CO, Kit Carson County, CO, Lincoln County, CO, Washington County, CO, Yuma County, CO, Cheyenne County, KS, Logan County, KS, Rawlins County, KS, Sherman County, KS, Thomas County, KS, Wallace County, KS
The radar
The Goodland radar (KGLD), 62 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:52 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Denver, CO (KDNR), launched 12:00Z, 7.8 hours before the alert went out and 84 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2028 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 37 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -5 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 79 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
294
ACUS11 KWNS 241949
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241949
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-242145-
Mesoscale Discussion 1077
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0249 PM CDT Thu Jun 24 2021
Areas affected...Eastern Colorado into far northwest Kansas.
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 241949Z - 242145Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...A gradual increase in storm intensity expected.
DISCUSSION...Storms which initially formed on the Front Range have
since moved off into the Plains. Buoyancy is still quite weak in
this region, but continues to increase as the boundary layer warms
and moistens in upslope flow across eastern Colorado. Expect these
storms to persist eastward and eventually become severe as they
encounter a more unstable airmass and better moisture. This process
may be gradual, but once storms can strengthen, strong supercells
will be possible given 45 to 50 knots of effective shear and
increasing instability. Storms will likely grow upscale into the
evening and may pose an increasing wind damage threat as this
occurs.
A severe thunderstorm watch is anticipated eventually for this
activity, but convective trends will need to be monitored to
correctly assess when a watch is appropriate.
..Bentley/Hart.. 06/24/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...
LAT...LON 39570407 39950375 40060244 40120161 40010097 39880087
39190078 38710125 38520186 38630342 39100396 39570407SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 24, 3:56 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Bent, Cheyenne, Kiowa, Kit Carson, Lincoln, Prowers and 2 more | 6 hr |
| Jun 24, 5:31 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Cheyenne, Kiowa, Kit Carson, Lincoln, Washington, Yuma | 119 min |
| Jun 24, 12:36 AM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Atchison, Brown, Doniphan, Nemaha | 114 min |
| Jun 24, 1:20 AM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Atchison, Brown, Doniphan, Nemaha | 6 hr |
| Jun 24, 1:45 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Atchison, Brown, Douglas, Jackson, Jefferson, Leavenworth and 7 more | 3 hr |
| Jun 24, 2:14 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Gray, Haskell, Meade, Seward | 91 min |
| Jun 24, 2:44 PM MDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Atchison, Brown, Clay, Cloud, Doniphan, Jackson and 8 more | 5 hr |
| Jun 24, 4:30 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Brown, Clay, Cloud, Doniphan, Marshall, Nemaha and 5 more | 60 min |
| Jun 24, 5:19 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Doniphan, Wyandotte | 56 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Colorado, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.