Alert archive / Missouri / Tornado Watches in 2017

Tornado Watch 47

February 28, 20175 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Feb 28, 2017, 9:04 PM CST for 5 states. It was in force for 7 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Feb 28, 2017, 9:04 PM CST (03:04 UTC)
Expired
Mar 1, 2017, 4:00 AM CST
In force
7 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
3 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 107 counties

Benton County, AR, Carroll County, AR, Madison County, AR, Washington County, AR, Adams County, IL, Bond County, IL, Brown County, IL, Calhoun County, IL, Clinton County, IL, Fayette County, IL, Greene County, IL, Jersey County, IL, Macoupin County, IL, Madison County, IL, Marion County, IL, Monroe County, IL, Montgomery County, IL, Pike County, IL, Randolph County, IL, Saint Clair County, IL, Washington County, IL, Allen County, KS, Bourbon County, KS, Chautauqua County, KS, Cherokee County, KS, Crawford County, KS, Elk County, KS, Labette County, KS, Montgomery County, KS, Neosho County, KS, Wilson County, KS, Audrain County, MO, Barry County, MO, Barton County, MO, Benton County, MO, Boone County, MO, Callaway County, MO, Camden County, MO, Cedar County, MO, Christian County, MO, City of Saint Louis, MO, Cole County, MO, Crawford County, MO, Dade County, MO, Dallas County, MO, Dent County, MO, Douglas County, MO, Franklin County, MO, Gasconade County, MO, Greene County, MO, Hickory County, MO, Howell County, MO, Iron County, MO, Jasper County, MO, Jefferson County, MO, Laclede County, MO, Lawrence County, MO, Lincoln County, MO, Madison County, MO, Maries County, MO, Marion County, MO, McDonald County, MO, Miller County, MO, Moniteau County, MO, Monroe County, MO, Montgomery County, MO, Morgan County, MO, Newton County, MO, Oregon County, MO, Osage County, MO, Ozark County, MO, Phelps County, MO, Pike County, MO, Polk County, MO, Pulaski County, MO, Ralls County, MO, Reynolds County, MO, Saint Charles County, MO, Saint Francois County, MO, Saint Louis County, MO, Sainte Genevieve County, MO, Shannon County, MO, St. Clair County, MO, Stone County, MO, Taney County, MO, Texas County, MO, Vernon County, MO, Warren County, MO, Washington County, MO, Webster County, MO, Wright County, MO, Adair County, OK, Cherokee County, OK, Craig County, OK, Creek County, OK, Delaware County, OK, Mayes County, OK, Muskogee County, OK, Nowata County, OK, Okmulgee County, OK, Osage County, OK, Ottawa County, OK, Pawnee County, OK, Rogers County, OK, Tulsa County, OK, Wagoner County, OK, Washington County, OK

The radar

The Springfield radar (KSGF), 74 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 03:05 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
60%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
50%
Ten or more severe wind reports
50%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
10%
Ten or more severe hail reports
40%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
30%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
80%

Warnings issued inside it

49 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 28, 9:07 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLSXAdams, Brown, Pike38 min
Feb 28, 9:19 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLSXMadison17 min
Feb 28, 9:23 PM CSTTornado WarningLSXBrown, Pike22 min
Feb 28, 9:23 PM CSTTornado WarningLSXMadison11 min
Feb 28, 9:35 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningICTElk, Greenwood, Wilson, Woodson55 min
Feb 28, 9:46 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningICTCowley, Elk, Greenwood44 min
Feb 28, 9:59 PM CSTTornado WarningICTWilson10 min
Feb 28, 10:00 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningICTAllen, Neosho, Wilson, Woodson60 min
Feb 28, 10:02 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningICTChautauqua, Cowley, Elk, Montgomery, Wilson43 min
Feb 28, 10:05 PM CSTTornado WarningICTNeosho27 min
Feb 28, 10:14 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFBourbon, Crawford21 days
Feb 28, 10:20 PM CSTTornado WarningICTWilson19 min
Feb 28, 10:22 PM CSTTornado WarningSGFBourbon, Crawford23 min
Feb 28, 10:29 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSAOsage31 min
Feb 28, 10:43 PM CSTTornado WarningSGFBourbon47 min
Feb 28, 10:46 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningICTLabette, Montgomery, Neosho, Wilson59 min
Feb 28, 10:51 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningICTLabette, Montgomery54 min
Feb 28, 10:58 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningICTAllen, Neosho17 min
Feb 28, 11:04 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLSXBoone, Moniteau41 min
Feb 28, 11:10 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSANowata, Washington50 min
Feb 28, 11:11 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFCedar, St. Clair, Vernon21 days
Feb 28, 11:29 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFBarton, Vernon24 min
Feb 28, 11:32 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFCherokee43 min
Feb 28, 11:42 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningICTLabette22 min
Feb 28, 11:42 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFBenton, Hickory47 min
Feb 28, 11:52 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFBarton, Jasper38 min
Mar 1, 12:12 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFCamden, Dallas, Hickory, Miller, Morgan53 min
Mar 1, 12:16 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFDade44 min
Mar 1, 12:23 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFJasper, Newton29 min
Mar 1, 12:33 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFPolk22 min
Mar 1, 12:42 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFLawrence33 min
Mar 1, 12:48 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFDallas, Laclede, Polk57 min
Mar 1, 12:54 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFGreene66 min
Mar 1, 1:02 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFCamden, Laclede, Maries, Miller, Phelps, Pulaski58 min
Mar 1, 1:08 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFChristian52 min
Mar 1, 1:09 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSACrawford, Franklin, Madison, Sebastian36 min
Mar 1, 1:15 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFDallas, Webster60 min
Mar 1, 1:20 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFBarry, Lawrence, McDonald, Newton, Stone45 min
Mar 1, 1:31 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFDent, Phelps, Pulaski, Texas59 min
Mar 1, 1:34 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFLaclede, Texas, Wright56 min
Mar 1, 1:37 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFBarry, Christian, Douglas, Stone, Taney53 min
Mar 1, 2:15 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLSXMadison, Monroe, Saint Clair34 min
Mar 1, 2:16 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFDent, Douglas, Howell, Shannon, Texas, Wright59 min
Mar 1, 2:27 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFOzark, Taney44 min
Mar 1, 2:31 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFStone, Taney14 min
Mar 1, 2:38 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFHowell, Oregon45 min
Mar 1, 2:39 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLSXClinton, Washington25 min
Mar 1, 2:53 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFHowell, Shannon, Texas44 min
Mar 1, 3:11 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLSXIron, Reynolds36 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 00:00Z, 3.1 hours before the alert went out and 119 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Springfield, MO at 00:00Z on 2017-03-01Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1117 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Springfield, MO at 00:00Z on 2017-03-01The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 341 square meters per square second.1939587897117136Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1117 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-52 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
931 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
65 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
341 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
315 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
2.3
Supercell composite
8.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

487 
WWUS20 KWNS 010302
SEL7  
SPC WW 010302
ARZ000-ILZ000-KSZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-011000-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 47
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
905 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Northwestern Arkansas
  Western Illinois
  Southeastern Kansas
  Southern and eastern Missouri
  Northeastern Oklahoma

* Effective this Tuesday night and Wednesday morning from 905 PM
  until 400 AM CST.

* Primary threats include...
  A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
  Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3
    inches in diameter possible
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of a
cold front and move into a favorable parameter space for all severe
hazards, including the risk for strong tornadoes.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles
north and south of a line from 35 miles north of Tulsa OK to 35
miles east northeast of Alton IL. For a complete depiction of the
watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 41...WW 42...WW 43...WW
44...WW 45...WW 46...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 25035.

...Edwards

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 28, 7:46 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBaxter, Clay, Cleburne, Craighead, Cross, Fulton and 14 more119 min
Feb 28, 8:29 PM CSTTornado WatchSPCClay, Craighead, Greene, Lawrence, Mississippi, Poinsett and 1 more12 hr
Feb 28, 10:46 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBoone, Carroll, Conway, Crawford, Franklin, Garland and 20 more119 min
Feb 28, 11:35 PM CSTTornado WatchSPCBaxter, Boone, Cleburne, Conway, Crawford, Faulkner and 24 more5 hr
Mar 1, 2:09 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArkansas, Clark, Clay, Cleburne, Cleveland, Conway and 38 more2 hr
Mar 1, 3:03 AM CSTTornado WatchSPCClay, Craighead, Crittenden, Cross, Greene, Lawrence and 4 more5 hr
Mar 1, 4:19 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCrittenden56 min
Feb 28, 8:06 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdams, Brown, Bureau, Cass, Champaign, Christian and 37 more84 min
Feb 28, 9:51 PM CSTTornado WatchSPCCass, Champaign, Christian, Clark, Clay, Coles and 37 more6 hr
Feb 28, 10:09 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCEdwards, Franklin, Gallatin, Hamilton, Jackson, Johnson and 5 more66 min
Feb 28, 11:52 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCChampaign, Ford, Iroquois, Vermilion53 min
Feb 28, 6:05 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllen, Anderson, Bourbon, Chautauqua, Cherokee, Crawford and 8 more115 min
Feb 28, 6:23 PM CSTTornado WatchSPCLinn, Miami5 hr
Feb 28, 10:01 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllen, Bourbon, Chautauqua, Cherokee, Cowley, Crawford and 6 more119 min
Mar 1, 12:16 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarton, Camden, Cedar, Christian, Cole, Crawford and 28 more89 min

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Missouri, 2017Tornado Watches in Illinois, 2017Tornado Watches in Oklahoma, 2017Every tornado watch in 2017

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.