Alert archive / Arkansas / Tornado Watches in 2017

Tornado Watch 50

February 28, 201730 counties in Arkansas; 19 counties in Oklahoma

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Feb 28, 2017, 11:35 PM CST for 30 counties in Arkansas; 19 counties in Oklahoma. It was in force for 5 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Feb 28, 2017, 11:35 PM CST (05:35 UTC)
Expired
Mar 1, 2017, 4:18 AM CST
In force
5 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
2 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 49 counties

Baxter County, AR, Boone County, AR, Cleburne County, AR, Conway County, AR, Crawford County, AR, Faulkner County, AR, Franklin County, AR, Fulton County, AR, Howard County, AR, Independence County, AR, Izard County, AR, Jackson County, AR, Johnson County, AR, Logan County, AR, Marion County, AR, Montgomery County, AR, Newton County, AR, Perry County, AR, Pike County, AR, Polk County, AR, Pope County, AR, Scott County, AR, Searcy County, AR, Sebastian County, AR, Sevier County, AR, Sharp County, AR, Stone County, AR, Van Buren County, AR, White County, AR, Yell County, AR, Atoka County, OK, Bryan County, OK, Carter County, OK, Choctaw County, OK, Coal County, OK, Haskell County, OK, Hughes County, OK, Johnston County, OK, Latimer County, OK, LeFlore County, OK, Love County, OK, Marshall County, OK, McCurtain County, OK, McIntosh County, OK, Murray County, OK, Pittsburg County, OK, Pontotoc County, OK, Pushmataha County, OK, Sequoyah County, OK

The radar

The Western Arkansas radar (KSRX), 48 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 05:37 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
40%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
20%
Ten or more severe wind reports
30%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
10%
Ten or more severe hail reports
30%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
30%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
60%

Warnings issued inside it

13 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 28, 11:37 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOUNCoal, Hughes, Pontotoc38 min
Feb 28, 11:50 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSAPittsburg40 min
Mar 1, 12:12 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOUNAtoka, Coal48 min
Mar 1, 12:19 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSALatimer, Pittsburg56 min
Mar 1, 12:47 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSACrawford, Franklin, Sebastian43 min
Mar 1, 12:49 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSALatimer, LeFlore, Pittsburg, Pushmataha41 min
Mar 1, 12:52 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSAHaskell, Latimer, LeFlore38 min
Mar 1, 1:07 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKJohnson, Logan, Newton, Pope, Searcy, Yell38 min
Mar 1, 1:09 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSACrawford, Franklin, Madison, Sebastian36 min
Mar 1, 1:39 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKBaxter, Conway, Johnson, Logan, Marion, Newton and 4 more51 min
Mar 1, 2:27 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKBaxter, Cleburne, Conway, Faulkner, Independence, Izard and 6 more48 min
Mar 1, 2:43 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKBaxter, Fulton, Izard, Sharp47 min
Mar 1, 3:05 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKIndependence, Jackson, Sharp, White, Woodruff40 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 00:00Z, 5.6 hours before the alert went out and 224 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Springfield, MO at 00:00Z on 2017-03-01Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1117 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Springfield, MO at 00:00Z on 2017-03-01The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 341 square meters per square second.1939587897117136Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1117 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-52 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
931 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
65 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
341 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
315 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
2.3
Supercell composite
8.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

618 
WWUS20 KWNS 010533
SEL0  
SPC WW 010533
ARZ000-OKZ000-011200-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 50
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1135 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Western and northern Arkansas
  South-central and southeastern Oklahoma

* Effective this Tuesday night and Wednesday morning from 1135 PM
  until 600 AM CST.

* Primary threats include...
  A couple tornadoes possible
  Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible
  Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...Convection is increasing in coverage and intensity ahead
of a cold front over parts of southern and southeastern OK, and
should move eastward to east-northeastward.  Activity will cross a
favorable cape/shear parameter space for supercells and small bows
with a risk of all severe-storm hazards.  See SPC mesoscale
discussion 230 for initial meteorological details.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles
north and south of a line from 10 miles south of Ardmore OK to 25
miles north northeast of Batesville AR. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU0).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 44...WW 45...WW 46...WW
47...WW 48...WW 49...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 24035.

...Edwards

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 28, 7:46 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBaxter, Clay, Cleburne, Craighead, Cross, Fulton and 14 more119 min
Feb 28, 8:29 PM CSTTornado WatchSPCClay, Craighead, Greene, Lawrence, Mississippi, Poinsett and 1 more12 hr
Feb 28, 9:04 PM CSTTornado WatchSPCBenton, Carroll, Madison, Washington7 hr
Feb 28, 10:46 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBoone, Carroll, Conway, Crawford, Franklin, Garland and 20 more119 min
Mar 1, 2:09 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArkansas, Clark, Clay, Cleburne, Cleveland, Conway and 38 more2 hr
Mar 1, 3:03 AM CSTTornado WatchSPCClay, Craighead, Crittenden, Cross, Greene, Lawrence and 4 more5 hr
Mar 1, 4:19 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCrittenden56 min
Feb 28, 10:01 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCraig, Delaware, Mayes, Nowata, Osage, Ottawa and 4 more119 min

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Arkansas, 2017Tornado Watches in Oklahoma, 2017Every tornado watch in 2017

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.