Mesoscale Discussion 237

Issued

Mar 1, 2017, 4:19 AM CST (10:19 UTC)

Expired

Mar 1, 2017, 5:15 AM CST

In force

56 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

The Ft Campbell radar (KHPX), 34 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 10:20 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

• Tornado Watch 53Mar 1, 4:55 AM CST
• Severe Thunderstorm Watch 55Mar 1, 6:50 AM CST

547 
ACUS11 KWNS 011019
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011019 
KYZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-011115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0237
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0419 AM CST Wed Mar 01 2017

Areas affected...Parts of srn IL...srn IND...wrn and cntrl
KY...western/middle TN

Concerning...Tornado Watch 52...

Valid 011019Z - 011115Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 52 continues.

SUMMARY...A new tornado watch likely will be issued east of tornado
watch 52 within the next hour.

DISCUSSION...Line of vigorous convection, which appeared to initiate
along a pre-frontal confluence zone, has accelerated east
northeastward across northern/central Arkansas the past couple of
hours (at 55-60 kt).  Aided by upper forcing for ascent on the
southeastern periphery of upper troughing shifting across/east of
the Plains, activity seems likely to maintain strength another
several hours, progressing east of the Mississippi River, through
much of western/central Kentucky and western/middle Tennessee by
13-15Z.  The boundary layer across much of this region remains moist
and potentially unstable (to both updrafts and downdrafts), in the
presence of 40-60 kt west southwesterly deep layer mean flow.  With
the approach of the line, low-level hodographs appear to be trending
more unidrectional, supporting primarily a risk for straight line
winds, but a tornado or two may not be out of the question.

..Kerr/Thompson.. 03/01/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   37448945 37908854 38208719 38278583 37628428 36138451
            34958634 34788871 35079054 36248945 37448945

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The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.