Alert archive / Ohio / Mesoscale Discussions in 2017
Mesoscale Discussion 249
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Mar 1, 2017, 3:56 PM EST for 4 states. It was in force for 2 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Mar 1, 2017, 3:56 PM EST (20:56 UTC)
- Expired
- Mar 1, 2017, 6:00 PM EST
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 5%
All 76 counties
Boyd County, KY, Breathitt County, KY, Carter County, KY, Elliott County, KY, Floyd County, KY, Greenup County, KY, Johnson County, KY, Lawrence County, KY, Magoffin County, KY, Martin County, KY, Menifee County, KY, Morgan County, KY, Rowan County, KY, Wolfe County, KY, Athens County, OH, Belmont County, OH, Carroll County, OH, Columbiana County, OH, Coshocton County, OH, Fairfield County, OH, Gallia County, OH, Geauga County, OH, Guernsey County, OH, Harrison County, OH, Hocking County, OH, Holmes County, OH, Jackson County, OH, Jefferson County, OH, Lawrence County, OH, Licking County, OH, Mahoning County, OH, Meigs County, OH, Monroe County, OH, Morgan County, OH, Muskingum County, OH, Noble County, OH, Perry County, OH, Portage County, OH, Scioto County, OH, Stark County, OH, Summit County, OH, Trumbull County, OH, Tuscarawas County, OH, Vinton County, OH, Washington County, OH, Wayne County, OH, Beaver County, PA, Butler County, PA, Crawford County, PA, Lawrence County, PA, Mercer County, PA, Venango County, PA, Washington County, PA, Boone County, WV, Brooke County, WV, Cabell County, WV, Calhoun County, WV, Doddridge County, WV, Hancock County, WV, Jackson County, WV, Kanawha County, WV, Lincoln County, WV, Logan County, WV, Marshall County, WV, Mason County, WV, Mingo County, WV, Ohio County, WV, Pleasants County, WV, Putnam County, WV, Ritchie County, WV, Roane County, WV, Tyler County, WV, Wayne County, WV, Wetzel County, WV, Wirt County, WV, Wood County, WV
The radar
The Charleston,WV radar (KRLX), 146 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:59 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Pittsburgh, PA (KAGC), launched 12:00Z, 8.9 hours before the alert went out and 163 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 991 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 46 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 605 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 588 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
053
ACUS11 KWNS 012057
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012056
PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-012300-
Mesoscale Discussion 0249
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0256 PM CST Wed Mar 01 2017
Areas affected...Eastern OH...western PA...western WV...and eastern
KY
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 012056Z - 012300Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated strong/gusty winds approaching severe levels may
occur with shallow convection along a cold front. Watch issuance is
not expected.
DISCUSSION...Since 19Z, showers/shallow convection have developed
along a cold front across eastern OH, with more isolated activity
across eastern KY. Very modest heating has occurred downstream per
visible satellite imagery and surface observations, and latest RAP
Mesoanalysis and forecast soundings suggest MUCAPE of 100-200 J/kg
may be present. While this meager instability will likely be
insufficient to support lightning discharges, it may be enough to
encourage some convective downdraft enhancement to already strong
gradient winds along/behind the front. Accordingly, there is a
marginal threat for isolated strong to perhaps damaging winds with
this shallow convection. The lack of more robust instability will
very likely preclude a more substantial severe threat, and watch
issuance is not expected.
..Gleason/Hart.. 03/01/2017
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...
LAT...LON 37808373 40068252 41708131 41838076 41767976 41037971
39268065 37638191 37348309 37808373SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 8:46 PM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Ballard, Caldwell, Calloway, Carlisle, Christian, Crittenden and 15 more | 119 min |
| Feb 28, 9:29 PM EST | Tornado Watch | SPC | Anderson, Ballard, Bourbon, Breckinridge, Bullitt, Butler and 49 more | 12 hr |
| Feb 28, 11:03 PM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Boone, Bracken, Campbell, Gallatin, Kenton, Pendleton | 117 min |
| Feb 28, 11:29 PM EST | Tornado Watch | SPC | Boone, Bracken, Campbell, Carroll, Gallatin, Grant and 6 more | 8 hr |
| Mar 1, 2:32 AM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adair, Anderson, Bath, Boone, Bourbon, Boyd and 69 more | 88 min |
| Mar 1, 3:09 AM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Ballard, Caldwell, Calloway, Carlisle, Crittenden, Fulton and 6 more | 2 hr |
| Mar 1, 4:03 AM EST | Tornado Watch | SPC | Ballard, Caldwell, Calloway, Carlisle, Christian, Crittenden and 16 more | 5 hr |
| Mar 1, 5:19 AM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adair, Allen, Ballard, Barren, Boyle, Breckinridge and 53 more | 56 min |
| Mar 1, 5:57 AM EST | Tornado Watch | SPC | Adair, Allen, Anderson, Barren, Boone, Bourbon and 55 more | 5 hr |
| Mar 1, 6:28 AM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adair, Allen, Anderson, Barren, Bath, Bell and 88 more | 2 hr |
| Mar 1, 6:48 AM EST | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Boyd, Carter, Greenup | 5 hr |
| Mar 1, 7:47 AM EST | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Bath, Bell, Breathitt, Clay, Elliott, Estill and 28 more | 5 hr |
| Mar 1, 8:28 AM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bell, Boyd, Breathitt, Carter, Clay, Clinton and 32 more | 92 min |
| Feb 28, 7:00 PM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Defiance, Fulton, Hancock, Henry, Lucas, Paulding and 4 more | 90 min |
| Feb 28, 7:37 PM EST | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Defiance, Fulton, Henry, Lucas, Ottawa, Paulding and 3 more | 8 hr |
| Feb 28, 9:41 PM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Defiance, Fulton, Henry, Lucas, Paulding, Williams and 1 more | 94 min |
| Mar 1, 1:44 AM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Allen, Auglaize, Darke, Defiance, Fulton, Hancock and 9 more | 61 min |
| Mar 1, 2:19 AM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Ashland, Ashtabula, Belmont, Carroll, Columbiana, Coshocton and 22 more | 86 min |
| Mar 1, 3:24 AM EST | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Ashland, Ashtabula, Crawford, Cuyahoga, Erie, Geauga and 22 more | 4 hr |
| Mar 1, 9:44 AM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adams, Bedford, Cumberland, Franklin, Fulton, Lancaster and 2 more | 91 min |
| Mar 1, 10:38 AM EST | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Adams, Bedford, Cumberland, Dauphin, Franklin, Fulton and 5 more | 4 hr |
| Mar 1, 12:25 PM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adams, Cumberland, Franklin, Fulton, York | 65 min |
| Mar 1, 12:50 PM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bucks, Chester, Delaware, Montgomery, Philadelphia | 55 min |
| Mar 1, 1:13 PM EST | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Berks, Bucks, Chester, Delaware, Montgomery, Philadelphia | 4 hr |
| Mar 1, 2:50 PM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bucks, Chester, Delaware, Lehigh, Montgomery, Northampton and 1 more | 55 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Ohio, 2017Mesoscale Discussions in West Virginia, 2017Mesoscale Discussions in Kentucky, 2017Every mesoscale discussion in 2017
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.