Severe Thunderstorm Warning 31, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1205 AM CST Wed Mar 1 2017

.UPDATE...

Updated to add TOR Watch 50 to the forecast...as well as to adjust
forecast for near term trends in temps/dewpts/winds...and
POPs/WX. Have also updated to include the 06Z aviation discussion
below...

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR flight conditions will start the forecast for most terminals,
with MVFR conditions with strong to severe storms overnight.
Storms will start in northwest AR after midnight, then move
southeast overnight as a cold front east to central and
southeastern AR. Isolated strong to severe storms will be
possible, with strong winds the main threat. The cold front will
move out to the state by midday Wednesday. Used VCSH and VCTS in
all Tafs. Winds will be south to southwest at 10 to 20 mph with
some gusts to 25 mph. Behind the front, winds will shift to the
northwest and remain elevated.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 845 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2017)

Discussion...

Evening convection over central and northern AR continues to move
northeast while slowly weakening as it move out of the CWA. This was
the first round, while the cold front and upper system will move
through AR later after midnight. Current timing is around midnight
to 3am into northwest AR, 3am to 6am central and LIT, then 6am to
9am over eastern AR. As mentioned, these storms will mainly be
along a line ahead of the cold front, with strong damaging winds the
main threat, while large hail and an isolated tornado a lower
threat. Winds will remain elevated overnight, and switch to the
northwest behind the front. Lows tonight will be mild over central
and southern areas with the cold front, while over northern AR
around normal values. Latest update removed some tornado watch areas
to the southwest, while keeping it in the north to northeast. Late
evening update will fine tune pops and severe storm threat. (59)

Prev Discussion.../ Issued 259 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2017/

SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Thursday

Focus this afternoon is on the chances of showers and thunderstorms
for tonight. The latest sounding...18Z...indicates a strong cap at
about 3000 feet. The atmosphere will need a little more heating to
break this cap and allow thunderstorms develop. A strong jet streak
should come across the state around 03Z tonight and provide
additional lift. The enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms continues
for mainly the northern half of the area with a slight risk
elsewhere. The cold front in the plains will not move through the
state until after midnight. This will bring another chance of strong
thunderstorms. Large hail, storng winds and tornadoes are all
possible through the night. Expect the thunderstorms and cold front
to exit the eastern part of the state during Wednesday morning.
Gusty south winds will be ahead of the front and will turn to the
northwest behind the front and remain gusty. Will issue a Lake Wind
Advisory due to the strong winds.

All rain should be out of eastern Arkansas by noon Wednesday. Expect
winds to diminish through the afternoon as the gradient relaxes.
High temperatures Wednesday will be in the mid 50s to mid 70s...and
upper 50s to mid 60s for Thursday. &&

LONG TERM...Thursday Night Through Tuesday

The period will begin with dry weather, and close to seasonal
temperatures. It may be cool enough for a freeze in parts of
northern Arkansas Friday morning. After that, a warming trend is
expected. This will happen as a large area of high pressure exits
toward the southeast United States, and winds around the high become
more southerly. As temperatures go up, a storm system will approach
from the Plains late in the weekend and early next week. That will
result in isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms Sunday and
Monday.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Lake Wind Advisory until noon CST today FOR Arkansas-Baxter-
Boone-Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-
Desha-Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-
Izard-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-Logan-Lonoke-Marion-
Monroe-Montgomery-Newton-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-Prairie-
Pulaski-Saline-Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-White-Woodruff-
Yell.

&&

Aviation...62

Hazardous Weather Outlook...Update
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
100 AM CST Wed Mar 1 2017

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-011115-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Newton-Searcy-Stone-Izard-
Independence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-Jackson-Logan-Conway-
Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-Polk-Montgomery-Garland-
Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-
Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-
Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-
100 AM CST Wed Mar 1 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A cold front will continue to push into the state during the
overnight hours. A line of strong to severe thunderstorms will
develop in advance of this front during the overnight hours.

These storms will be accompanied by gusty and damaging winds in
excess of 60 mph and large hail. A tornado is also possible with any
of the stronger storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday Through Monday

The storm system and cold front will be pushing east of Arkansas on
Wednesday, and push the storms east of Arkansas. An isolated strong
to severe storm will be possible until the cold front pushes east of
Arkansas. Then high pressure will build into the area and bring
cooler and dry weather into the weekend.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter Activation will be needed this evening and tonight.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

59

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
940 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2017

ARZ007-010400-
Sharp AR-
940 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL SHARP COUNTY UNTIL
1000 PM CST...

At 940 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Ravenden, or 11 miles east of Cherokee Village, moving northeast at
60 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Highland in Sharp County...       Williford...
Armstrong...                      Ozark Acres...
Sitka...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CST for north central
Arkansas.

LAT...LON 3637 9128 3633 9128 3633 9126 3625 9126
      3624 9133 3623 9133 3623 9135 3613 9135
      3611 9139 3627 9151 3640 9130
TIME...MOT...LOC 0340Z 238DEG 53KT 3624 9137

226

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