Severe Thunderstorm Warning 26, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion...Update
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
550 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

.Aviation...

VFR flight conditions will start the forecast, with MVFR conditions
with strong to severe storms. Storms will affect most of central AR
this evening, and move northeast. Tuesday evening convection will be
more isolated and strong to severe, while tonight a cold front will
gradually push across the state and additional convection will be
seen along the cold front with also isolated strong to severe
storms. Used VCSH and VCTS in all Tafs. Winds will be south at 10 to
20 mph with some gusts to 30 mph. Behind the front, winds will shift
to the northwest. (59)

&&

.Prev Discussion.../ Issued 259 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2017/

.SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Thursday

Focus this afternoon is on the chances of showers and thunderstorms
for tonight. The latest sounding...18Z...indicates a strong cap at
about 3000 feet. The atmosphere will need a little more heating to
break this cap and allow thunderstorms develop. A strong jet streak
should come across the state around 03Z tonight and provide
additional lift. The enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms continues
for mainly the northern half of the area with a slight risk
elsewhere. The cold front in the plains will not move through the
state until after midnight. This will bring another chance of strong
thunderstorms. Large hail, storng winds and tornadoes are all
possible through the night. Expect the thunderstorms and cold front
to exit the eastern part of the state during Wednesday morning.
Gusty south winds will be ahead of the front and will turn to the
northwest behind the front and remain gusty. Will issue a Lake Wind
Advisory due to the strong winds.

All rain should be out of eastern Arkansas by noon Wednesday. Expect
winds to diminish through the afternoon as the gradient relaxes.
High temperatures Wednesday will be in the mid 50s to mid 70s...and
upper 50s to mid 60s for Thursday. &&

.LONG TERM...Thursday Night Through Tuesday

The period will begin with dry weather, and close to seasonal
temperatures. It may be cool enough for a freeze in parts of
northern Arkansas Friday morning. After that, a warming trend is
expected. This will happen as a large area of high pressure exits
toward the southeast United States, and winds around the high become
more southerly. As temperatures go up, a storm system will approach
from the Plains late in the weekend and early next week. That will
result in isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms Sunday and
Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     58  62  34  61 /  70  60   0   0
Camden AR         62  70  37  64 /  60  40   0   0
Harrison AR       48  57  32  59 /  60  30   0   0
Hot Springs AR    58  66  35  63 /  60  30   0   0
Little Rock   AR  61  67  36  63 /  60  50   0   0
Monticello AR     65  74  38  64 /  70  60   0   0
Mount Ida AR      56  63  33  63 /  60  30   0   0
Mountain Home AR  52  59  32  60 /  70  40   0   0
Newport AR        59  64  35  61 /  80  60   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     63  70  37  63 /  70  50   0   0
Russellville AR   56  62  33  62 /  60  30   0   0
Searcy AR         60  66  35  62 /  70  50   0   0
Stuttgart AR      62  68  37  62 /  70  50   0   0
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Lake Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon CST Wednesday
FOR Arkansas-Baxter-Boone-Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-
Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-Desha-Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-
Hot Spring-Independence-Izard-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-
Logan-Lonoke-Marion-Monroe-Montgomery-Newton-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-
Polk-Pope-Prairie-Pulaski-Saline-Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van
Buren-White-Woodruff-Yell.

&&

Short Term...51 / Long Term...46

Hazardous Weather Outlook...Update
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
450 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-011115-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Newton-Searcy-Stone-Izard-
Independence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-Jackson-Logan-Conway-
Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-Polk-Montgomery-Garland-
Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-
Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-
Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-
450 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...This Evening and Tonight

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop this evening and
become more numerous tonight. Isolated to scattered strong to severe
storms will be seen, with large hail, damaging winds and a few
isolated tornadoes possible. Isolated storms this evening will
transition to a line of storms later tonight as a cold front moves
into the state from the northwest. Damaging winds will be possible
along this line of storms, with hail and tornadoes a lesser threat
at that time. Isolated areas of heavy rain will also be possible
with localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday Through Monday

The storm system and cold front will be pushing east of Arkansas on
Wednesday, and push the storms east of Arkansas. An isolated strong
to severe storm will be possible until the cold front pushes east of
Arkansas. Then high pressure will build into the area and bring
cooler and dry weather into the weekend.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter Activation will be needed this evening and tonight.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

59

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
559 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0555 PM     HAIL             MONNIE SPRINGS          34.92N  92.49W
02/28/2017  E4.50 INCH       PULASKI            AR   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

EVENT NUMBER LZK1700057

JBH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
623 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     HAIL             VILONIA                 35.08N  92.21W
02/28/2017  E1.00 INCH       FAULKNER           AR   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER LZK1700058

JBH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
707 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SW HIGGINSON          35.18N  91.73W
02/28/2017                   WHITE              AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEVERAL TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN NEAR HIGHWAY 367.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LZK1700059

JBH

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
735 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2017

ARZ004-005-013-010215-
Baxter AR-Marion AR-Searcy AR-
735 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN IZARD...NORTHEASTERN
SEARCY...SOUTHEASTERN MARION AND CENTRAL BAXTER COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM
CST...

At 735 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Maumee, or 9 miles north of Marshall, moving northeast at 50 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Mountain Home...                  Norfork...
Salesville...                     Briarcliff...
Norfork Dam...                    Diamond Bay...
Evening Star...                   Shipp...
Herron...                         Maumee...
Rush...                           Lion Hill...
Advance...                        Cartney...
Culp...                           Gilbert...
Zach...                           Morning Star...
Maumee Crossing...                Rea Valley...

A tornado watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CST for north central
Arkansas.

LAT...LON 3641 9220 3617 9219 3617 9222 3614 9222
      3613 9220 3611 9220 3593 9268 3610 9278
TIME...MOT...LOC 0135Z 242DEG 55KT 3605 9265

46