Alert archive / Arkansas / Tornado Watches in 2017

Tornado Watch 43

February 28, 201756 counties in Arkansas; Dunklin County, Pemiscot County, Missouri

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Feb 28, 2017, 3:40 PM CST for 56 counties in Arkansas; Dunklin County, Pemiscot County, Missouri. It was in force for 6 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Feb 28, 2017, 3:40 PM CST (21:40 UTC)
Expired
Feb 28, 2017, 10:00 PM CST
In force
6 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
3 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 58 counties

Arkansas County, AR, Baxter County, AR, Benton County, AR, Boone County, AR, Carroll County, AR, Clark County, AR, Clay County, AR, Cleburne County, AR, Conway County, AR, Craighead County, AR, Crawford County, AR, Crittenden County, AR, Cross County, AR, Faulkner County, AR, Franklin County, AR, Fulton County, AR, Garland County, AR, Grant County, AR, Greene County, AR, Hot Spring County, AR, Independence County, AR, Izard County, AR, Jackson County, AR, Jefferson County, AR, Johnson County, AR, Lawrence County, AR, Lee County, AR, Logan County, AR, Lonoke County, AR, Madison County, AR, Marion County, AR, Mississippi County, AR, Monroe County, AR, Montgomery County, AR, Newton County, AR, Perry County, AR, Phillips County, AR, Pike County, AR, Poinsett County, AR, Polk County, AR, Pope County, AR, Prairie County, AR, Pulaski County, AR, Randolph County, AR, Saline County, AR, Scott County, AR, Searcy County, AR, Sebastian County, AR, Sharp County, AR, St. Francis County, AR, Stone County, AR, Van Buren County, AR, Washington County, AR, White County, AR, Woodruff County, AR, Yell County, AR, Dunklin County, MO, Pemiscot County, MO

The radar

The Little Rock radar (KLZK), 92 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:40 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
50%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
30%
Ten or more severe wind reports
40%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
10%
Ten or more severe hail reports
60%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
30%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
80%

Warnings issued inside it

13 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 28, 4:33 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKFaulkner, Garland, Perry, Pulaski, Saline42 min
Feb 28, 4:36 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKGarland, Montgomery39 min
Feb 28, 5:04 PM CSTTornado WarningLZKGarland, Saline41 min
Feb 28, 5:21 PM CSTTornado WarningLZKFaulkner, Perry, Pulaski, Saline39 min
Feb 28, 5:43 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKPerry, Pulaski, Saline32 min
Feb 28, 5:54 PM CSTTornado WarningLZKFaulkner, Pulaski35 min
Feb 28, 6:05 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKFaulkner, Perry, Pulaski40 min
Feb 28, 6:25 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKFaulkner, Lonoke, White50 min
Feb 28, 6:33 PM CSTTornado WarningLZKWhite42 min
Feb 28, 7:09 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKJackson, White, Woodruff51 min
Feb 28, 7:14 PM CSTTornado WarningLZKJackson, White, Woodruff35 min
Feb 28, 7:52 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKJackson, Woodruff23 min
Feb 28, 8:54 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMEGCraighead, Mississippi, Poinsett36 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 12:00Z, 9.7 hours before the alert went out and 178 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Springfield, MO at 12:00Z on 2017-02-28Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 573 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Springfield, MO at 12:00Z on 2017-02-28The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 370 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
573 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-124 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
708 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
54 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
370 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
379 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
7.9

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

573 
WWUS20 KWNS 282137
SEL3  
SPC WW 282137
ARZ000-MOZ000-010400-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 43
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
340 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Northern and Central Arkansas
  Missouri Bootheel

* Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 340 PM until
  1000 PM CST.

* Primary threats include...
  A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible
  Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
    to 3 inches in diameter possible
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are beginning to develop over
western AR.  These storms will spread eastward across the watch area
this afternoon and evening, posing a risk of large hail, damaging
winds, and a few tornadoes.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles
north and south of a line from 55 miles west of Russellville AR to
25 miles south southeast of Jonesboro AR. For a complete depiction
of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU3).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 41...WW 42...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean
storm motion vector 25035.

...Hart

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 28, 2:10 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArkansas, Ashley, Bradley, Chicot, Desha, Drew and 2 more3 hr
Feb 28, 1:46 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBaxter, Benton, Boone, Carroll, Clay, Cleburne and 37 more2 hr
Feb 28, 5:28 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBaxter, Boone, Clay, Cleburne, Conway, Craighead and 36 more2 hr
Feb 28, 2:19 PM CSTTornado WatchSPCBarry, Barton, Benton, Bollinger, Boone, Butler and 58 more7 hr
Feb 28, 2:57 PM CSTTornado WatchSPCAudrain, Clark, Knox, Lewis, Marion, Monroe and 4 more7 hr

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Arkansas, 2017Tornado Watches in Missouri, 2017Every tornado watch in 2017

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.