Severe Thunderstorm Warning 22, NWS Springfield, MO

784 
WWUS53 KSGF 010756
SVSSGF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
156 AM CST WED MAR 1 2017

MOC029-105-125-131-161-169-010806-
/O.EXP.KSGF.SV.W.0022.000000T0000Z-170301T0800Z/
Maries MO-Miller MO-Laclede MO-Pulaski MO-Phelps MO-Camden MO-
156 AM CST WED MAR 1 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR MARIES...SOUTHEASTERN
MILLER...NORTH CENTRAL LACLEDE...PULASKI...PHELPS AND SOUTHEASTERN
CAMDEN COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 200 AM CST...
    
The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the area.
Therefore the warning will be allowed to expire.  However heavy rain
is still possible with these thunderstorms.

A tornado watch remains in effect until 400 AM CST for south central,
central, southwestern and east central Missouri.

LAT...LON 3815 9164 3815 9153 3779 9153 3776 9267
      3785 9270 3816 9219 3829 9219 3829 9165
TIME...MOT...LOC 0756Z 270DEG 63KT 3847 9098 3800 9142 

$$

Cramer

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1114 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Late Afternoon through tonight)
Issued at 1254 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

The setup for severe thunderstorm potential remains complicated
through tonight. In the larger scale, a broad trough of low
pressure is emerging from the Rockies with the main trough axis
just clearing the Continental Divide. There are several weak
perturbations/waves ahead of this main trough axis which are
lined up from the southern Plains into the Missouri Ozarks.

At the surface, low pressure is deepening over the Oklahoma
Panhandle. A frontal boundary extends northeast from the low to a
secondary area of low pressure across eastern Iowa. South of this
front, strong warm air and moisture advection continues. Lower 60s
dew points have made it into southern Missouri. This low level air
mass will continue to improve as we get into this evening and
overnight.

The main initial question will be cap strength. We have seen a few
cells develop in areas that have seen partial clearing. This may
be on the northern extent of an elevated mixed layer (EML). We
will get a better feel for this EML with a special RAOB which has
just been released. Where this EML is present, steep mid-level
lapse rates are present.

As we go forward from late this afternoon into this evening,
isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development will be
possible within the established warm sector. These storms would
tend to be supercells with very strong large scale shear in place.
Large hail (possibly larger than golf balls) will be the main
potential hazard. Additionally, low level wind shear will rapidly
increase starting early this evening. This will lead to increased
supercell tornado potential.

From late this evening into the overnight period, large scale lift
will begin to increase as that main trough axis approaches along
with a short wave trough ejecting from the southern Plains.
Thunderstorm coverage will then become highly dependent on whether
or not we see a slight increase in capping strength due to evening
cooling. Models tend to over-strengthen capping inversions within
the warm sector in setups like this. Thus, we very well may need
another special balloon release this evening.

Any cells that can get going in the warm sector from later this
evening into the overnight period will pose a risk for all modes
of severe storms...including tornadoes. We remain concerned with
areas of south-central Missouri where shear/CAPE profiles will be
supportive of stronger and potentially longer track tornadoes. The
potential for very large hail will also persist.

Between 9 and 11 PM, we then expect a squall line to develop and
push into southeastern Kansas and west-central Missouri along an
advancing cold front. Damaging straight line winds will be the
main potential hazard with this line as it moves southeast across
much of the Missouri Ozarks. There will also be a mesovortex
tornado threat with any bows along this line which surge to the
east and northeast.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1254 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

Surface high pressure will be filtering into the region behind
the cold front Wednesday through Thursday morning. This will
keep temperatures Wednesday in 50s for highs and allow overnight
temperatures to fall into the upper 20s across the area, making
for more seasonable conditions for this time of year. Skies will
also clear allowing for some frost to develop for parts of the
region.

The upper level flow across the region Wednesday night after the
frontal passage through the end of the week will remain
northwesterly with additional surface highs moving over the
Ozarks Thursday and again Friday. This will keep clear skies
across the area with temperatures in the middle and upper 50s to
around 60 degrees during the afternoon and around 30 degrees in
the mornings.

A weak and quick moving upper ridge will slide over the region
for Saturday allowing temperatures to rise into the 60s as breezy
southerly winds return. These southerly winds will also bring Gulf
moisture back into the region.

Models are indicating a cold front that will move through the
region most likely on Monday, however, significant timing
differences are noted on all the models. Some have the front and
precipitation impacting the Ozarks as early as Sunday afternoon
or Sunday evening (Canadian) to as late as Monday evening (GFS).
Will keep an eye on this period and feature going forward and for
now will target Monday as the potential for another round of
showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1110 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

Multi-cellular strong to severe convection has developed along the
cold front across west central MO into southeast KS. These storms
should gradually congeal into a squall line overnight. Still
looking at convection affecting the TAF sites between 06z and
09-10z, but there will be a one to two hour window of convection
at each site as these storms should quickly push through.
Expecting MVFR to IFR during the storms and VFR conditions outside
of the convection. Winds will remain gusty through much of the day
Wednesday and could see some severe wind gusts through the
convection pushing through. Winds will diminish after sunset on
Wednesday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 230 AM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

Here are today's record high temperatures:

SGF...77/2006
JLN...78/2006
UNO...77/1955
VIH...75/2006

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Lindenberg
CLIMATE...Hatch

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1240 AM CST Wed Mar 1 2017

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-020645-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
1240 AM CST Wed Mar 1 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Elevated Tornado risk.
  Significant Hail risk.
  Elevated Thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Significant Lightning risk.
  Limited Non thunderstorm wind risk.
  Elevated Fire weather risk.

DISCUSSION...

Strong to severe storms will continue to develop along the frontal
boundary overnight. Large hail up to golf ball size, damaging wind
up to 70 mph and a few tornadoes will remain possible.

Storms should end from northwest to southeast after the front
pushes through overnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

An elevated fire weather risk will impact the outlook area at
times from Wednesday through Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed in the next three hours for
across much of southwest and central Missouri.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Lindenberg

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1234 AM CST WED MAR 01 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1225 AM     HAIL             NEMO                    37.88N 93.26W
03/01/2017  E1.00 INCH       HICKORY            MO   PUBLIC

            WINDS 5O TO 60 MPH ESTIMATED

&&

MGRIFFIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1236 AM CST WED MAR 01 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1210 AM     HAIL             3 N GRAVOIS MILLS       38.35N 92.83W
03/01/2017  E1.00 INCH       MORGAN             MO   BROADCAST MEDIA

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL PICTURE FROM TWITTER

&&

MGRIFFIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1238 AM CST WED MAR 1 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1225 AM     TSTM WND DMG     3 N GREENFIELD          37.46N 93.84W
03/01/2017                   DADE               MO   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN 3 MILES NORTH OF GREENFIELD.

&&

BURCHFIELD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1240 AM CST WED MAR 1 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1231 AM     HAIL             3 SE SAGINAW            36.99N 94.43W
03/01/2017  E1.00 INCH       NEWTON             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            .

&&

BURCHFIELD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1245 AM CST WED MAR 1 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1230 AM     HAIL             1 ESE LEAWOOD           37.03N 94.48W
03/01/2017  E1.00 INCH       NEWTON             MO   PUBLIC

            MPING REPORT.

&&

BURCHFIELD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1255 AM CST WED MAR 1 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1238 AM     TSTM WND DMG     4 ENE ALDRICH           37.57N 93.49W
03/01/2017                   POLK               MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE LIMBS DOWN ON WW HIGHWAY.

&&

BURCHFIELD