Severe Thunderstorm Warning 11, NWS Springfield, MO

193 
WWUS53 KSGF 010553
SVSSGF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1153 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2017

MOC011-217-010603-
/O.CAN.KSGF.SV.W.0011.000000T0000Z-170301T0615Z/
Barton MO-Vernon MO-
1153 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN BARTON AND VERNON
COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
            
The storms which prompted the warning have weakened below severe
limits, and no longer pose an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.  However heavy rain is
still possible with these thunderstorms.

A tornado watch remains in effect until 400 AM CST for southeastern
Kansas...and southwestern and west central Missouri.

LAT...LON 3790 9461 3805 9412 3804 9411 3805 9410
      3803 9408 3804 9407 3795 9406 3752 9408
      3751 9461 3766 9462 3769 9461 3771 9462
TIME...MOT...LOC 0552Z 256DEG 55KT 3795 9418 3779 9411 3763 9414 

$$

Cramer

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1114 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Late Afternoon through tonight)
Issued at 1254 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

The setup for severe thunderstorm potential remains complicated
through tonight. In the larger scale, a broad trough of low
pressure is emerging from the Rockies with the main trough axis
just clearing the Continental Divide. There are several weak
perturbations/waves ahead of this main trough axis which are
lined up from the southern Plains into the Missouri Ozarks.

At the surface, low pressure is deepening over the Oklahoma
Panhandle. A frontal boundary extends northeast from the low to a
secondary area of low pressure across eastern Iowa. South of this
front, strong warm air and moisture advection continues. Lower 60s
dew points have made it into southern Missouri. This low level air
mass will continue to improve as we get into this evening and
overnight.

The main initial question will be cap strength. We have seen a few
cells develop in areas that have seen partial clearing. This may
be on the northern extent of an elevated mixed layer (EML). We
will get a better feel for this EML with a special RAOB which has
just been released. Where this EML is present, steep mid-level
lapse rates are present.

As we go forward from late this afternoon into this evening,
isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development will be
possible within the established warm sector. These storms would
tend to be supercells with very strong large scale shear in place.
Large hail (possibly larger than golf balls) will be the main
potential hazard. Additionally, low level wind shear will rapidly
increase starting early this evening. This will lead to increased
supercell tornado potential.

From late this evening into the overnight period, large scale lift
will begin to increase as that main trough axis approaches along
with a short wave trough ejecting from the southern Plains.
Thunderstorm coverage will then become highly dependent on whether
or not we see a slight increase in capping strength due to evening
cooling. Models tend to over-strengthen capping inversions within
the warm sector in setups like this. Thus, we very well may need
another special balloon release this evening.

Any cells that can get going in the warm sector from later this
evening into the overnight period will pose a risk for all modes
of severe storms...including tornadoes. We remain concerned with
areas of south-central Missouri where shear/CAPE profiles will be
supportive of stronger and potentially longer track tornadoes. The
potential for very large hail will also persist.

Between 9 and 11 PM, we then expect a squall line to develop and
push into southeastern Kansas and west-central Missouri along an
advancing cold front. Damaging straight line winds will be the
main potential hazard with this line as it moves southeast across
much of the Missouri Ozarks. There will also be a mesovortex
tornado threat with any bows along this line which surge to the
east and northeast.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1254 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

Surface high pressure will be filtering into the region behind
the cold front Wednesday through Thursday morning. This will
keep temperatures Wednesday in 50s for highs and allow overnight
temperatures to fall into the upper 20s across the area, making
for more seasonable conditions for this time of year. Skies will
also clear allowing for some frost to develop for parts of the
region.

The upper level flow across the region Wednesday night after the
frontal passage through the end of the week will remain
northwesterly with additional surface highs moving over the
Ozarks Thursday and again Friday. This will keep clear skies
across the area with temperatures in the middle and upper 50s to
around 60 degrees during the afternoon and around 30 degrees in
the mornings.

A weak and quick moving upper ridge will slide over the region
for Saturday allowing temperatures to rise into the 60s as breezy
southerly winds return. These southerly winds will also bring Gulf
moisture back into the region.

Models are indicating a cold front that will move through the
region most likely on Monday, however, significant timing
differences are noted on all the models. Some have the front and
precipitation impacting the Ozarks as early as Sunday afternoon
or Sunday evening (Canadian) to as late as Monday evening (GFS).
Will keep an eye on this period and feature going forward and for
now will target Monday as the potential for another round of
showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1110 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

Multi-cellular strong to severe convection has developed along the
cold front across west central MO into southeast KS. These storms
should gradually congeal into a squall line overnight. Still
looking at convection affecting the TAF sites between 06z and
09-10z, but there will be a one to two hour window of convection
at each site as these storms should quickly push through.
Expecting MVFR to IFR during the storms and VFR conditions outside
of the convection. Winds will remain gusty through much of the day
Wednesday and could see some severe wind gusts through the
convection pushing through. Winds will diminish after sunset on
Wednesday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 230 AM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

Here are today's record high temperatures:

SGF...77/2006
JLN...78/2006
UNO...77/1955
VIH...75/2006

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Lindenberg
CLIMATE...Hatch

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
733 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-020145-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
733 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Elevated Tornado risk.
  Significant Hail risk.
  Elevated Thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Significant Lightning risk.
  Limited Non thunderstorm wind risk.

DISCUSSION...

The coverage of storms will increase later this evening into the
overnight hours as cold front begins to push into the region.

Storms which do develop will have the potential of producing hail
to the size of tennis balls, damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph and
tornadoes.

Storms should end from northwest to southeast after the front
pushes through overnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

An elevated fire weather risk will impact the outlook area at
times from Wednesday through Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed in the next three hours for
parts of west central Missouri into extreme southeast Kansas. The
severe potential will then spread southeast overnight across the
remainder of the area.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Lindenberg

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1109 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1106 PM     HAIL             1 SW NEVADA             37.83N 94.37W
02/28/2017  E1.00 INCH       VERNON             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            .

&&

BURCHFIELD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1116 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1031 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 N WALNUT              37.62N 95.08W
02/28/2017                   CRAWFORD           KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES BLOWN DOWN AND BLOCKING ROADS...POLES BLOWN DOWN. A
            GARAGE DOWN WAS BLOWN IN AND DAMAGE.

&&

MGRIFFIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1117 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1115 PM     HAIL             WALKER                  37.90N 94.23W
02/28/2017  E1.00 INCH       VERNON             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            .

&&

BURCHFIELD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1124 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1119 PM     HAIL             GIRARD                  37.51N 94.84W
02/28/2017  E1.00 INCH       CRAWFORD           KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            .

&&

BURCHFIELD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1125 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1122 PM     HAIL             ARMA                    37.54N 94.70W
02/28/2017  E1.00 INCH       CRAWFORD           KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            .

&&

BURCHFIELD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1129 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1127 PM     HAIL             ARCADIA                 37.64N 94.62W
02/28/2017  E1.00 INCH       CRAWFORD           KS   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            .

&&

BURCHFIELD