Mesoscale Discussion 187

Issued

Feb 29, 2012, 4:18 PM EST (21:18 UTC)

Expired

Feb 29, 2012, 5:45 PM EST

In force

87 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

The Charleston,WV radar (KRLX), 105 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:20 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

350 
ACUS11 KWNS 292119
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292118
WVZ000-PAZ000-OHZ000-VAZ000-KYZ000-292245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0187
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0318 PM CST WED FEB 29 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN/ERN OH...MUCH OF WV...NERN KY

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 49...

VALID 292118Z - 292245Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 49 CONTINUES.

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS RICHEST OVER SERN OH SWD INTO NERN KY AND
WV...WHERE THE GREATEST SVR THREAT IN THE NEAR-TERM WILL BE FOCUSED.
A STORM OCCASIONALLY EXHIBITING SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS IS
CROSSING THE OH RIVER INTO WOOD COUNTY WV AND MAY BE SUSTAINED
FARTHER INTO WV DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO WHILE QUICKLY MOVING EWD
AROUND 45 KT...WHILE ADDITIONAL LEWP STRUCTURES CROSS PARTS OF SRN
WV. DESPITE THE MARGINAL DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...STRONG LOW-LEVEL
AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...WITH EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES IN EXCESS OF 350
M2/S2...WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES WITH AN
ATTENDANT THREAT FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS AND A FEW TORNADOES.

FARTHER NW ACROSS CNTRL/NERN OH AND THE NRN PANHANDLE OF
WV...CONVECTION THUS FAR HAS BEEN RATHER SPARSE OWING TO ONLY
MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND GENERALLY WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
HOWEVER...VIS SATELLITE LOOP DEPICTS SOME ATTEMPTS AT CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT IN AN AREA BOUNDED BY COLUMBUS-CLEVELAND-
YOUNGSTOWN...WHERE INSOLATION CONTINUES TO SUPPORT STEEP LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE /ALBEIT WEAK/ IS RELATIVELY
MAXIMIZED. CONVERGENCE ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL SFC DRYLINE DRAPED NE-SW
FROM N-CNTRL TO SW OH ALONG WITH INCREASING DCVA IN ASSOCIATION WITH
AN APPROACHING IMPULSE FROM THE MID-MS VALLEY REGION MAY SUPPORT
DEEPENING OF CONVECTION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IN STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS FAR NORTH IS NOT EXCEEDINGLY
HIGH...LATEST RUNS OF THE EXPERIMENTAL HRRR INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL
FOR DEEPER CONVECTION EVOLVING IN THIS REGION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS. AND...IF THIS OCCURS...MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES
THROUGH THE CLOUD LAYER WOULD SUPPORT BROKEN LINE SEGMENTS WITH AN
ATTENDANT THREAT FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS...AND 0-1-KM BULK SHEAR
MAGNITUDES IN EXCESS OF 20 KT MAY SUPPORT A TORNADO THREAT.

..COHEN.. 02/29/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...

LAT...LON   41488059 40198050 39448028 39007953 38277988 38058065
            37468139 37348189 37778223 38018271 38628364 39268397
            40838287 41388206 41488059

Mesoscale Discussions in Ohio, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in West Virginia, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Kentucky, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.