Alert archive / Virginia / Tornado Watches in 2012

Tornado Watch 52

February 29, 201228 counties in Virginia; 4 counties in West Virginia

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Feb 29, 2012, 3:43 PM EST for 28 counties in Virginia; 4 counties in West Virginia. It was in force for 5 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Feb 29, 2012, 3:43 PM EST (20:43 UTC)
Expired
Feb 29, 2012, 8:39 PM EST
In force
5 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
1 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 32 counties

Alleghany County, VA, Bath County, VA, Bedford County, VA, Bland County, VA, Botetourt County, VA, Carroll County, VA, City of Buena Vista, VA, City of Covington, VA, City of Galax, VA, City of Lexington, VA, City of Martinsville, VA, City of Radford, VA, City of Roanoke, VA, City of Salem, VA, Craig County, VA, Floyd County, VA, Franklin County, VA, Giles County, VA, Grayson County, VA, Henry County, VA, Montgomery County, VA, Patrick County, VA, Pulaski County, VA, Roanoke County, VA, Rockbridge County, VA, Smyth County, VA, Tazewell County, VA, Wythe County, VA, Greenbrier County, WV, Mercer County, WV, Monroe County, WV, Summers County, WV

The radar

The Roanoke radar (KFCX), 75 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:43 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
40%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
20%
Ten or more severe wind reports
30%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
30%
Ten or more severe hail reports
30%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
5%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
70%

Warnings issued inside it

8 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 29, 4:07 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRNKAlleghany, Bath53 min
Feb 29, 4:23 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRNKAlleghany38 min
Feb 29, 5:12 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRNKGiles48 min
Feb 29, 5:17 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRNKAlleghany, Bath, Rockbridge, City of Lexington28 min
Feb 29, 6:15 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRNKGiles26 min
Feb 29, 7:01 PM ESTFlash Flood WarningRNKBland, Smyth, Tazewell6 hr
Feb 29, 7:18 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRNKBland, Tazewell27 min
Feb 29, 7:23 PM ESTTornado WarningRNKGrayson, Smyth, Wythe37 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Roanoke, VA (KRNK), launched 12:00Z, 8.7 hours before the alert went out and 122 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Roanoke, VA at 12:00Z on 2012-02-29Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Roanoke, VA at 12:00Z on 2012-02-29The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 313 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
651 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
58 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
313 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
338 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

120 
WWUS20 KWNS 292044
SEL2
SPC WW 292044
VAZ000-WVZ000-010300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 52
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
345 PM EST WED FEB 29 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

       WESTERN VIRGINIA
       SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 345 PM UNTIL
1000 PM EST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTH OF WHITE
SULPHUR SPRINGS WEST VIRGINIA TO 45 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
DUBLIN VIRGINIA.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 48...WW 49...WW 50...WW
51...

DISCUSSION...A COMPLEX BOWING STRUCTURE HAS RECENTLY EVOLVED OVER
SRN WV WITHIN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE BUT STRONGLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT.  DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS ACROSS THE WATCH AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...OWING TO
THE PRESENCE OF A 50+KT WSWLY LLJ WHICH IS ENHANCING HEAT AND
MOISTURE FLUXES.  AS SUCH...EXPECT ABOVE-MENTIONED MCS TO ADVANCE
EWD WITH ATTENDANT THREATS FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE
OF TORNADOES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 350.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26050.


...MEAD

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 29, 12:11 PM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCLee2 hr
Feb 29, 12:31 PM ESTTornado WatchSPCLee, Russell, Scott, Washington, Wise, City of Bristol and 1 more8 hr
Feb 29, 1:37 PM ESTTornado WatchSPCBuchanan, Dickenson7 hr
Feb 29, 3:23 PM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlleghany, Bath, Bedford, Bland, Botetourt, Carroll and 23 more67 min
Feb 29, 4:34 PM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCLee116 min
Feb 29, 1:24 PM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBoone, Cabell, Calhoun, Jackson, Kanawha, Lincoln and 10 more36 min
Feb 29, 4:18 PM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarbour, Boone, Braxton, Brooke, Cabell, Calhoun and 31 more87 min

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Virginia, 2012Tornado Watches in West Virginia, 2012Every tornado watch in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.