Alert archive / Kentucky / Tornado Watches in 2012

Tornado Watch 47

February 29, 201212 counties in Kentucky; 8 counties in Ohio

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Feb 29, 2012, 8:27 AM EST for 12 counties in Kentucky; 8 counties in Ohio. It was in force for 5 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Feb 29, 2012, 8:27 AM EST (13:27 UTC)
Expired
Feb 29, 2012, 1:00 PM EST
In force
5 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
1 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt

Counties Boone County, KY, Bracken County, KY, Campbell County, KY, Carroll County, KY, Gallatin County, KY, Grant County, KY, Kenton County, KY, Lewis County, KY, Mason County, KY, Owen County, KY, Pendleton County, KY, Robertson County, KY, Adams County, OH, Brown County, OH, Clermont County, OH, Hamilton County, OH, Highland County, OH, Pike County, OH, Ross County, OH, Scioto County, OH

The radar

The Cincinnati radar (KILN), 61 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 13:30 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
30%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
20%
Ten or more severe wind reports
30%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
10%
Ten or more severe hail reports
10%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
5%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
70%

Warnings issued inside it

1 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 29, 8:43 AM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningILNCarroll, Gallatin, Grant, Owen36 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Cncnati-Daytn, OH (KILN), launched 12:00Z, 1.5 hours before the alert went out and 61 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Cncnati-Daytn, OH at 12:00Z on 2012-02-29Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 18 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Cncnati-Daytn, OH at 12:00Z on 2012-02-29The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 791 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
18 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-228 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
454 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
56 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
791 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
857 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
2.5

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

054 
WWUS20 KWNS 291326
SEL7
SPC WW 291326
KYZ000-OHZ000-291800-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 47
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
830 AM EST WED FEB 29 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

       NORTHERN KENTUCKY
       SOUTHERN OHIO

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 830 AM UNTIL
100 PM EST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF
CINCINNATI OHIO TO 55 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF CINCINNATI OHIO.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 44...WW 45...WW 46...

DISCUSSION...NE/SW SQLN OVER SRN IND/CNTRL KY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE E
AT ABOUT 50 KTS.  ASSOCIATED EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS MAY CONTINUE POSE
RISK FOR ISOLD TORNADOES AND DMGG WIND...DESPITE MARGINAL DEGREE OF
SFC-BASED INSTABILITY...GIVEN VERY STRONG LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERIC
FLOW/SHEAR.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26050.


...CORFIDI

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 29, 1:49 AM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBallard, Caldwell, Calloway, Carlisle, Christian, Crittenden and 16 more56 min
Feb 29, 2:14 AM ESTTornado WatchSPCBallard, Caldwell, Calloway, Carlisle, Christian, Crittenden and 16 more11 hr
Feb 29, 3:40 AM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdair, Allen, Anderson, Barren, Bath, Boone and 63 more65 min
Feb 29, 4:53 AM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBallard, Caldwell, Calloway, Carlisle, Christian, Crittenden and 16 more97 min
Feb 29, 5:39 AM ESTTornado WatchSPCAdair, Allen, Anderson, Barren, Bath, Bourbon and 54 more7 hr
Feb 29, 8:38 AM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdair, Allen, Anderson, Barren, Bath, Boone and 70 more67 min
Feb 29, 9:07 AM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCaldwell, Calloway, Carlisle, Christian, Crittenden, Fulton and 12 more53 min
Feb 29, 12:11 PM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdair, Allen, Anderson, Barren, Bath, Bell and 61 more2 hr
Feb 29, 12:31 PM ESTTornado WatchSPCAdair, Allen, Barren, Bath, Bell, Boyle and 59 more8 hr
Feb 29, 12:41 PM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBoone, Bracken, Campbell, Gallatin, Grant, Kenton and 2 more3 hr
Feb 29, 1:24 PM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBoyd, Greenup, Lawrence36 min
Feb 29, 1:37 PM ESTTornado WatchSPCBoyd, Carter, Greenup, Lawrence, Lewis, Mason7 hr
Feb 29, 4:18 PM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBoyd, Carter, Greenup, Lawrence, Lewis87 min
Feb 29, 4:34 PM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdair, Allen, Barren, Bath, Bell, Boyle and 48 more116 min

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Kentucky, 2012Tornado Watches in Ohio, 2012Every tornado watch in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.